依托农业合作组织完善农产品经纪人队伍

目前,我国农产品经纪人队伍存在经纪行为不成熟、职业行为不规范、综合素质低、活动资金匮乏等不足,根本原因在于我国农产品经纪人的分散性。农业合作组织是推进农业和农村市场发展的中坚力量之一。依托农业合作组织,有了组织保障,农产品经纪人可以获得开展经济活动的资金;方便从外部和内部进行监督以使经纪活动规范化操作;通过合理的内部利益分配机制,可以促使经纪行为走向成熟;利用合作组织的信息资源,有利于提高经纪人的专业能力和综合素质。     

The Political Economy of Policy Vacuums: The European Commission on Demographic Change

ABSTRACT

Supranational organisations can only confront politico-economic issues that are recognised as important. Typically, issues gain recognition either when they provide an external shock to the system, shaking political actors into action, or when they are framed as important in policy networks concerned with developing the appropriate scientific approach. Ideally political and scientific actors align in creating pressures to recognise the issue as salient and to mobilise organisational responses. Issues differ in their capacity to be driven by both political and scientific pressures, creating crisis management, technocratic, and reform agenda outcomes. Here we explore a further variation, where pressures around an issue are insufficient, creating a policy vacuum. We examine one such policy vacuum in Europe: demographic change. This issue belongs to no particular Directorate-General in the European Commission, but is subject to policy frames from DG EMPL and DG ECFIN. Without sufficient political and scientific pressures, no particular policy position is occupied and advocated despite recognition of the issue’s importance. We discuss the role of policy vacuums and the need for their identification in political economy research.     

How to shake the invisible hand (when Robinson meets Friday)

We propose defining the invisible hand by: (i) modelling the mechanism itself (rather than just assuming its existence); and (ii) making explicit the limit conditions of its working. For that purpose, we simply assimilate the working of the invisible hand mechanism with the existence of a social preference such that individual and social optimalities are consistent. In introducing the possibility of interaction among individuals, we then suggest that the standard singleton case, or atomistic individualism, is just an extreme feature of a more general requirement that we call the  network agreement . Our main result is that the invisible hand mechanism does keep on working when there is an interaction between Robinson and Friday if the former (respectively, the latter) is sensitive to the latter (respectively, the former) in such a way that they exhibit some agreement in preferences. Hence, the singleton case naturally satisfies this property because neither Robinson nor Friday can disagree with himself. Further cooperative situations are also allowed in order to extent the invisible hand mechanism to cases with interactions.     

组织支持感、组织承诺与员工建言行为：与上司关系的调节作用

回报动机和可能存在的风险是员工是否采取建言行为的重要影响因素。通过对708个员工样本数据的分析,结果显示：组织支持感与组织承诺和员工建言行为之间存在强烈正相关关系;组织承诺在组织支持感影响员工建言行为的关系中起到部分中介的作用;与上司关系交互调节了组织承诺影响员工建言行为的关系。     

A structured approach to conflict prediction in information systems strategy implementation

Organizational power and politics are the central issues of this paper. By developing a model of organizational power it is possible to determine whether an organizational change initiative is likely to be politically feasible. The formal model described has been derived largely from research reported in the social sciences. The modelling process involved using formal methods, in logic and entity relationship analysis, to discover an effective and consistent means of representing key organizational power concepts. The result is an advisory expert system called MP/L1 that can be employed by change agents to predict likely sources of potential resistance to major change initiatives and to suggest tactics that might be effective in combating anticipated resistance. Industrial experience with MP/L1 to date indicates that it has significant potential as a change management tool within the IS strategy-implementation domain. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An empirical investigation of water consumption forecasting methods

Many regions on earth face daily limitations in the quantity and quality of the water resources available. As a result, it is necessary to implement reliable methodologies for water consumption forecasting that will enable the better management and planning of water resources. This research analyses, for the first time, a large database containing data from 2 million water meters in 274 unique postal codes, in one of the most densely populated areas of Europe, which faces issues of droughts and overconsumption in the hot summer months. Using the R programming language, we built and tested three alternative forecasting methodologies, employing univariate forecasting techniques including a machine-learning algorithm, with very promising results.     

A simple model of homophily in social networks

Biases in meeting opportunities have been recently shown to play a key role for the emergence of homophily in social networks (see Currarini et al., 2009). The aim of this paper is to provide a simple microfoundation of these biases in a model where the size and type-composition of the meeting pools are shaped by agents׳ socialization decisions. In particular, agents either inbreed (direct search only to similar types) or outbreed (direct search to population at large). When outbreeding is costly, this is shown to induce stark equilibrium behavior of a threshold type: agents “inbreed” (i.e. mostly meet their own type) if, and only if, their group is above certain size. We show that this threshold equilibrium generates patterns of in-group and cross-group ties that are consistent with empirical evidence of homophily in two paradigmatic instances: high school friendships and interethnic marriages.     

基于时间序列的BP神经网络预测鄂尔多斯市的GDP

国内生产总值(GDP)是制定经济发展战略、规划、年度计划以及各种宏观经济政策的重要依据,研究GDP预测方法具有重要的现实意义。在对鄂尔多斯市GDP数据序列分析的基础上,考虑到BP神经网络可以通过简单非线性函数的复合能够实现对于复杂函数的映射,本文采用BP神经网络方法来预测鄂尔多斯市的GDP,取得了较好的预测效果。     

基于BP神经网络的征地区片综合地价评估

文章提出了征地区片综合地价的BP神经网络系统的基本构造,并在充分考虑城市规划和生活水平对征地区片土地价格影响的基础上,对神经网络的评估系统进行了设计.给出了征地区片综合地价评估的指标体系及特征指标的量化计算公式.以雅安市雨城区最新的征地区片综合地价为基础,利用改进的BP神经网络模型对它们进行了训练和模拟,取得了良好的模拟结果,证明了ANN法用来测算征地区片综合地价的可行性和先进性.