Capital account flows,consumption ratios and the middle‐income trap

The existing literature suggests that it is important to understand the factors that may slow the transition of an economy from middle to high income. Many factors have been suggested as promoting or retarding economic growth, but little attention has been paid to the roles of the capital account and consumption ratio. Using panel regressions involving 48 countries over the 1950–2013 period as well as employing extreme bounds analysis, we find that foreign investment outflows are associated with a mature economy and that there is an optimal consumption ratio that must be surpassed to break out of middle‐income status. These findings are robust to an extreme bounds analysis incorporating a wide range of variables potentially related to growth performance.     

经济增长中的政府功效和区域贫困化问题研究——基于中国1038个县（县级市）统计数据的实证分析

本文使用2005年中国1038个县(县级市)统计数据,通过建立柯布.道格拉斯生产函数,对模型进行了邹至庄检验。发现:影响县域经济增长的主要因素是固定资产投资,同时模型的结构是不稳定的,结构变化的拐点在人均GDP为11617元。也是说,在经济发展过程中,政府的财政支出在经济水平较低的县,对经济增长的推动作用是不显著的。贫困陷阱地区的经济起飞存在一个明显的阈值,政府的财政推力只有超过这个阈值,才能发挥应有的作用。     

Understanding Benign Liquidity Traps: The Case of Japan

Japan has been in a benign liquidity trap since the 1990s. In a benign liquidity trap, interest rates approach zero and monetary policy is ineffective but output and employment perform decently. Such a pattern contradicts traditional macro theories. This paper introduces a monetary general equilibrium model that is compatible with Japan's performance and resolves puzzles associated with liquidity traps. Possible conclusions for Anglo‐Saxon countries and eurozone members are also discussed.     

经济转型期广西跨越式发展的困境与出路

2012年广西GDP超万亿元,广西进入"后3000美元时代"。GDP超万亿元后广西将处在加快发展和经济转型的重叠时期,这一时期广西实现跨越式发展将面临"瓶颈制约、结构束缚、体制障碍"三个重大难题,而"调结构、转方式"是广西直面发展困境、破解发展难题的最佳选择。     

关于比较优势动态转化的文献综述

比较优势理论一直都是国际贸易理论的基础和核心,面对新的经济形势,比较优势理论也不断经受着其反对者理论和经验验证上的挑战。回顾比较优势理论的动态发展过程,从比较优势动态转化的理论研究、影响因素和实证研究等若干方面进行了综述,旨在为发展中国家实现本国比较优势的动态转化,提升本国产业结构、培育新的比较优势提供政策依据。     

灰色关联分析法在油气勘探早期构造圈闭评价中的应用

针对现代勘探构造圈闭评价方法对勘探程度要求较高，所需各种数据量、运算量大的实际，将灰色关联分析方法应用于勘探早期的构造圈闭评价，成功解决了大庆外围区块勘探程度较低地区的圈闭优选问题，缩短了勘探周期。灰色关联分析方法可以在微机上定量评价勘探早期的圈闭性质，降低勘探风险，提高勘探成功率，是油气勘探构造圈闭评价方法应用技术的新突破。     

Accumulation and distribution of human capital: the interaction between individual and aggregate variables

The paper analyses the joint evolution of accumulation and distribution of human capital in an OLG framework. Dynamics arises from the interplay between human capital distribution and individual variables—inherited human capital and inborn ability. Such interaction drives individual investment in human capital and accumulation in the economy. According to initial distribution the model provides different dynamical behaviours linking growth and inequality; in general economies with a more equal initial distribution grow faster but other cases are possible. Moreover, since the model provides an endogenous threshold for investing in human capital, the distribution is characterised by multi-modality.     

The Hukou and Land Tenure Systems as Two Middle Income Traps--The Case of Modern China

China＇s prevailing hukou （household registration） system and land tenure system seem to be very different in their applications. In fact, they both function to deny the exit right of rural residents from a rural community. Under these systems, rural residents are not allowed to freely exit from collectives if they do not want to lose their entitlements, such as their rights to using collectively owned land and their land-based properties. Farmers are neither allowed to sell their houses to outsiders, nor allowed to sell to outsiders their rights to contracting a piece of land from the collective where their households are registered. For migrant workers from rural areas, it is extremely difficult for them to obtain an urban hukou with all its associated entitlements at an urban locality where they currently work and live. The combined effect of the two systems leads to serious distortions in labor and land markets, resulting in discrimination against migrant workers, sprawling yet exclusive urbanization, housing bubbles, and depressed domestic demand. These distortions further entrench the existing and much widened urban/rural divide. Unless these two systems are thoroughly reformed, the rural residents in Chinese mainland will be trapped in their comparatively much lower income and remain unable to share the gains from the agglomeration effects of urbanization.     

后金融危机时期解读我国宏观经济政策

在国际金融危机持续蔓延时期,各国出台相应政策扭转不利局势。我国政府在2008年和2009年也出台了多项宏观政策来应对危机,并取得了一定的成效。危机已过,余波未平,在后金融危机时期,这些政策发挥着怎样的作用,今后宏观调控的方针和措施是什么?本文将针对这些问题一一解读。     

中美贸易背后的利益分析

文章首先介绍了中美贸易的不平衡发展，然后重点分析了在中美贸易中的贸易利益流向和对双方的经济影响，进而找到解决此问题的积极可行的对策。