Growth at the EU periphery: the next enlargement

In 2004, 75 million people are scheduled to become EU citizens, making this the largest round of expansion of the Western European club to date. Of the 10 new entrants, 8 are former socialist economies, for which membership in the EU represents the coronation of an effort began with the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989. Based on their recent economic performance, the Central and Eastern European countries appear to be well on their way to successfully integrate in the Western European club, while the Baltic Republics still lag behind. The gap between the two groups emerges when we consider the adjustment of the production structure, the composition of trade and FDI flows, and income distribution. The evidence we review appears to support the role of institutional quality to facilitate integration in the world market and overall economic performance.     

浅谈高性能沥青路面

文章主要介绍美国SHRP计划中高性能沥青路面(Superpave)的研究方法和Superpave在实际应用中的技术问题。     

声誉机制对环境规制效率的影响研究——基于环境保护财政资金的绩效评价视角

在基于环境保护财政资金的绩效评价视角上,采用博弈论的分析框架,先后使用无限期重复博弈模型和KMRW声誉模型来解释环境保护财政资金使用者声誉机制对环境规制效率的影响。     

The Pragmatic Comparison of Taboos between Chinese and English Culture

禁忌语在中西方文化里反映了社会生活的各个方面,所以中英禁忌语的语用比较对于跨文化交际有着非常重要的作用。现从文学和文字处理的角度讨论分析了两种语言中禁忌语在语用学方面的异同之处。     

上市公司代理成本与企业绩效关系研究——来自金融类上市公司证据

我国企业存在的代理问题主要表现为高管人员在获得高额薪酬的同时还会职务消费。本文以委托代理理论为基础,基于2001年至2007年的金融类A股上市公司数据,对高管代理成本与企业绩效的相关性进行了实证检验,结果显示:我国金融类上市公司职务消费不能对企业盈利能力、规模产生显著影响,高管薪酬激励能显著提高企业规模,但对企业盈利能力提高不显著。     

Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques

This paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for the growth of the real M2 and real M4 Divisia money series for the U.S. using monthly data. The core contention is that information on economic uncertainty improves the forecasting accuracy. We estimate vector autoregressive models using the iterated rolling-window forecasting scheme, in combination with modern regularisation techniques from the field of machine learning. Applying the Hansen-Lunde-Nason model confidence set approach under two different loss functions reveals strong evidence that uncertainty variables that are related to financial markets, the state of the macroeconomy or economic policy provide additional informational content when forecasting monetary dynamics. The use of regularisation techniques improves the forecast accuracy substantially.     

Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets and Wouters model, and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a measure of the external finance premium. The second allows for the extensive labor-market margin and adds the unemployment rate to the observables. The main question that we address is whether these extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation forecasts and the period around the Great Recession. The labor market extension improves the medium- to longer-term real GDP growth and shorter- to medium-term inflation forecasts weakly compared with the benchmark model.     

企业战略差异度会影响分析师盈余预测吗？

随着我国资本市场的发展,证券分析师的作用日益凸显,关于分析师盈余预测的研究一直是各界关注的重点。采用我国沪深两市A股上市公司2011—2015年分析师盈余预测数据,检验了企业战略差异度对分析师盈余预测精度和分析师跟踪偏好的影响。实证结果表明：（1）企业战略差异度越大,分析师盈余预测准确度越低;（2）企业战略差异度越大,分析师盈余预测分歧度越大;（3）企业战略差异度越大,分析师跟踪人数越少。进一步研究还发现：国有产权会削弱战略差异度对分析师盈余预测准确度和跟踪人数的不利影响。     

从传统绩效预算走向新绩效预算的路径选择

从传统绩效预算走向新绩效预算,代表了现代预算制度的发展方向。20世纪50年代,胡佛委员会倡导的传统绩效预算由于种种原因失败了。随着政府治理变革的不断深化,新绩效预算重新出现在当代预算改革的视野中。本文通过对比传统绩效预算与新绩效预算的成败得失,分析新绩效预算的主要特点——取得了立法机关的支持、适时的政府会计改革、更科学的绩效评价体系和更致力于绩效信息的使用。这些经验对于中国现代预算制度的建设具有重要的启示价值。     

Tax-benefit systems and differences in aggregate labour force participation: Comparative evidence from the Czech Republic and Hungary

This paper investigates the extent to which cross-country differences in aggregate participation rates can be explained by differences in tax-benefit systems. We take the example of two countries, the Czech Republic and Hungary, which – despite a lot of similarities – differ markedly in labour force participation rates. Using comparable individual-level labour supply estimates, we simulate how the aggregate participation rate would change in one country if the other country’s tax and social welfare system were adopted. The estimation results for the two countries are quite similar, suggesting that individual preferences are essentially identical in the two countries. The simulation results show that about one-third of the difference in the participation rates of the 15–74 year-old population and more than two-thirds of the participation of the prime-age population can be explained by differences in the tax-benefit systems.