云南省休闲农业空间分布特征及其影响因素分析

[目的]发展休闲农业是深度开发农业资源潜力,调整农业结构,增加农民收入的重要途径。分析云南省休闲农业空间分布特征及影响因素,为优化布局供理论参考。[方法]以2011—2016年云南省农业厅和农业省旅游局及国家旅游局公布的休闲农业名单为研究样本,运用平均最邻近比率、地理集中指数和平均分布密度等方法研究云南省休闲农业空间分布特征,并具体分析了影响分布的因素。[结果](1)云南省的休闲农业可分为观光采摘园、农业科技园、休闲农业园、文化创意园4种类型,整体呈集聚分布,但4种类型分布不均匀。(2)休闲农业市域分布差异明显,其中昆明市和大理白族自治州分布数目最多,昆明市、玉溪市和保山市休闲农业的平均分布密度远高于其他地区。(3)影响云南省休闲农业空间分布的因素主要有经济发展水平、资源禀赋、交通条件和气候特点,云南省休闲农业多分布在拥有较高的经济发展水平、资源充沛、丰富的交通干线和气候条件优越的地区。[结论]云南省休闲农业分布不均,根据“点—轴”空间理论和核心—边缘理论,今后可先形成城市边缘休闲地带,然后由经济的带动逐步向欠发达地区拓展。充分利用地区气候条件优势和资源优势,开发休闲农业新模式。还可考虑将休闲农业与传统旅游景区相结合共同形成环城市或环交通干线的景观带,形成“一串式”发展格局。     

我国国有企业民营化发行后绩效变化的影响因素分析

笔者研究了我国国有企业民营化发行前后的绩效分布和变化特征,并重点从宏观层面和微观层面分析了绩效变化的影响因素。研究表明,经济增长率、资本市场成熟度、机构投资者、集权式管理、股权再融资和独立审计选择能够促进民营化发行后绩效水平的改善,市场竞争度、大股东控制度、中央控制、股权制衡度和关联交易对民营化发行后的绩效具有显著负相关影响,而行业管制、投资者保护度、地区市场化和对外担保对民营化发行后绩效的影响效应不明显。可见,影响国有企业民营化发行后绩效变化的原因来自宏观和微观两个方面,忽视任何方面都不能全面地解释民营化绩效的变化。     

Migration,Unemployment, and Skill Downgrading

In this paper, we analyze the labor market impacts of immigration under flexible and rigid labor market regimes. A general equilibrium framework is developed, accounting for skill heterogeneity and labor market frictions, where unemployed medium‐skilled manufacturing workers are downgraded into low‐skilled service jobs, while low‐skilled service workers might end up unemployed. The analytical analysis shows that medium‐skill immigration decreases low‐skilled unemployment under the flexible regime, indicating a complementarity effect, while the rigid regime induces a substitution effect, leading to low‐skilled unemployment. Moreover, it leads to wage polarization. In a numerical analysis, the economic effects of different migration scenarios are quantified.     

大学生个人知识管理促进其职业发展

在知识经济时代,面对知识的种类日益繁多且瞬息更新,只有通过正确的个人知识管理,不断提高自身综合素养,增强自身竞争力,大学生才能顺利地促进个人职业的发展。     

Predicting credit card fraud with Sarbanes‐Oxley assessments and Fama‐French risk factors

This research developed and tested machine learning models to predict significant credit card fraud in corporate systems using Sarbanes‐Oxley (SOX) reports, news reports of breaches and Fama‐French risk factors (FF). Exploratory analysis found that SOX information predicted several types of security breaches, with the strongest performance in predicting credit card fraud. A systematic tuning of hyperparamters for a suite of machine learning models, starting with a random forest, an extremely‐randomized forest, a random grid of gradient boosting machines (GBMs), a random grid of deep neural nets, a fixed grid of general linear models where assembled into two trained stacked ensemble models optimized for F1 performance; an ensemble that contained all the models, and an ensemble containing just the best performing model from each algorithm class. Tuned GBMs performed best under all conditions. Without FF, models yielded an AUC of 99.3% and closeness of the training and validation matrices confirm that the model is robust. The most important predictors were firm specific, as would be expected, since control weaknesses vary at the firm level. Audit firm fees were the most important non‐firm‐specific predictors. Adding FF to the model rendered perfect prediction (100%) in the trained confusion matrix and AUC of 99.8%. The most important predictors of credit card fraud were the FF coefficient for the High book‐to‐market ratio Minus Low factor. The second most influential variable was the year of reporting, and third most important was the Fama‐French 3‐factor model R² – together these described most of the variance in credit card fraud occurrence. In all cases the four major SOX specific opinions rendered by auditors and the signed SOX report had little predictive influence.     

垃圾焚烧发电项目邻近公众环境风险认知水平测量——以K市两个垃圾焚烧发电项目为例

运用AHP方法构建了包括环境风险知识、环境风险态度、环境风险行为意愿、环境风险行为4个一级指标、20个二级指标的公众环境风险认知评价指标体系,结合K市两个典型垃圾焚烧发电项目(W项目和D项目)的实地问卷调查,对项目周边3 km环境敏感区域内公众的环境风险认知水平进行了测量,调查结果显示,公众的年龄、性别、户口性质因素对环境风险认知具有显著影响,文化程度因素是制约公众环境风险认知的关键因素,因此,环境教育应成为提高公众环境风险认知最直接、最有效的途径。     

中国寿险市场退保影响因素的实证分析

文章分析了影响寿险保单退保的主要因素,并利用中国寿险市场1983-2007年的退保数据,选择失业率、利率、物价指数三个变量建立了向量误差修正模型(VECM)对影响退保的"财务危机"、"利率替代"和"支付贬值"三个假说进行了实证检验,结果表明三个变量都影响退保率的变化,"支付贬值"因素的短期和长期影响最明显,"利率替代"因素的短期和长期效应也比较显著,而"财务危机"的长期效应不显著,文章最后根据分析结果提出了相应的应对措施.     

产业低碳化弹性脱钩因素影响力分析——以山西省建筑业为例

产业低碳化发展是经济低碳发展的核心内容。基于产业弹性低碳化分析框架,采用对数方法研究弹性因子对产业排放脱钩弹性的影响力。实证分析表明：山西省建筑业降低二氧化碳排放问题日益重要。产业节能和减排弹性脱钩是降低二氧化碳排放、实现经济发展与碳排放脱钩的因素。因此,政府应大力支持技术创新。     

物价波动、收入增长和地区差距对中国贫困线的影响

我国贫困线的增长机制是只与物价挂钩,不与收入挂钩。由于食品价格增长高于消费价格指数增长,这种调整机制导致贫困线绝对购买力下降;同时,随着收入的快速增长,贫困线相对购买力急剧下降。另外,贫困线与地区经济发展水平高度相关,造成地区间受助穷人的生活质量相差巨大。