Are exchange rates interdependent? Evidence using wavelet analysis

We examine the co-movement in daily returns of USD–INR, EUR–INR, GBP–INR, and JPY–INR currency pair futures contracts traded on the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) using the wavelet cohesion approach. This study contributes to the literature by examining the scantly studied area of co-movement in exchange rates and using the wavelet approach, which allows us to analyse time–frequency-wise co-movement of the time series. The empirical results indicate that the currency futures markets are nearly perfectly integrated in the long run (monthly, quarterly and biannual scales) offering little potential gains from international portfolio diversification. The discrepancies between currency futures markets are small and almost fade away within 3–6 months. Moreover, international currency diversification might offer relatively higher potential gains at intraweek, weekly, and fortnightly time horizons owing to lower correlations among the currencies under consideration. Finally, our multiple-wavelet correlation and cross-correlation analysis shows that GBP acts as a potential leader/follower across scales. The results of our analysis indicate the dynamic pattern of co-movement among the major currency futures contracts, which provides several implications for portfolio managers and international investors participating in the Indian market.     

专利联营对外许可冲突：焦点、国际化解经验及改善路径

专利联营是国家技术转移体系基础架构的有机组成部分,也是高新技术产业的重要技术来源。随着技术进步和创新主体的多样化发展,专利联营核心专利组合的市场价值能否实现已经成为专利联营对外许可冲突的焦点。以专利联营对外许可冲突焦点为研究对象,建立合作博弈模型,得出被许可人获得许可后的经济利益净增值、专利联营的对外许可费底线和被许可人缴纳的许可费底线是影响专利联营核心专利组合市场价值实现的3个重要关联因素。通过借鉴国际活跃专利联营的先进经验,指出核心专利质量不高、对外许可效率低下是本土专利联营核心专利组合市场价值无法实现的主要障碍。在此基础上,立足专利联营供给侧角度,从自主创新能力、政产学研合作和人力资源建设3个方面提出本土专利联营满足被许可人需求、化解对外许可冲突的有效路径。     

基于三角模糊数的贷款组合优化模型比较分析

随着中国利率市场化的进程,贷款利率呈现出更大的不确定性,商业银行间的竞争也越来越激烈,在新的行业特点和经营形势下,商业银行需要结合研究贷款资源的配置方式,为商业银行管理层的决策提供有力的支撑。引入三角模糊数来刻画商业银行的收益率,并利用其可能性均值来构建三类贷款组合优化模型进行分析,结果显示模型的有效边界都符合均值方差模型有效边界的变化趋势,且得到的贷款权重配置可以更好地体现贷款利用效率。     

Claims,Concerns and Interests In British Credit Union Development

The British credit union movement has grown rapidly over the past decade, albeit from a low base relative to other nations. That growth has been led by a natlonal credlt union pollcy network. Thls article provides a detailed appraisal of the structure of that network, the motivations of its members and the relations between them.

This study highlights the existence of contradictions in the ‘policy space’ occupied by this network that have obscured the public interest In credit union development to date. These contradictions need to be resolved if the performance of the system as a whole is to be improved and public policy goals are to be met Increasing visibtlity ensuing from repeated endorsement of credit unions by the Labour government is bringing added pressures to bear on that network. New actors may be expected to enter the credit union polltlcal market as a result The irnpacts of entry, both positive and negative, are evaluated in terms of the coheslon and effectiveness of ihe credit union policy network.     

Tail dependence risk exposure and diversification potential of Islamic and conventional banks

This paper undertakes a rolling window comparative analysis of risks for portfolios consisting of GCC Islamic and conventional bank indices. We draw our empirical results by employing canonical, drawable and regular vine copula models, as well as by implementing a portfolio optimization method with a conditional Value-at-Risk constraint. We find evidence of higher riskiness in the group of Islamic banks relative to the group of conventional banks across each of the financial rolling window scenarios under consideration. Specifically, a greater negative (nonlinear) tail asymmetric dependence is observed in the pairs of Islamic banks’ relationships. The results also show that the optimal portfolio model supports a clear preference towards the group of conventional banks in regard to risk minimization and diversification benefits.     

基于战略Partnering模式的工程项目组合管理研究

工程项目组合管理模式的选择对项目组合综合效益有显著影响,将战略Partnering模式应用于工程项目组合管理中,有助于提高工程项目组合的管理水平及收益。通过对战略Partnering模式概念和特点的分析,设计了战略Partnering模式的组织结构,提出了战略Partnering模式的工作流程,详述了基于战略Partnering模式的工程项目组合管理机制应包括信任机制、沟通机制、协作机制、利益机制与调节机制。     

世界100强企业的业务组合

研究业务组合与企业经济绩效的关系,目的在于揭示业务组合类型对企业成长的作用,为企业界选择发展方式提供指导。世界100强企业成功的业务组合与经营绩效关系,对正在以更快步伐加入国际竞争的中国企业,具有重要的借鉴意义。本文对1997～2006年期间世界100强企业的业务组合类型及经营绩效间关系进行了实证分析,发现采取单一业务型和相关业务型业务组合的企业所占比重均有大幅下降,采取主导一体化、主导业务型和非相关业务型业务组合的企业所占比重均有不同程度的增加。不同业务组合类型企业的获利能力、运营能力和偿债能力均具有显著差异。     

Portfolio Optimization under Lower Partial Risk Measures

Portfolio management using lower partial risk (downside risk) measures is attracting more attention of practitioners in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to review important characteristics of these riskmeasures and conduct simulation using four alternative measures, lower semi-variance, lower semi-absolute deviation, first order below targetrisk and conditional value-at-risk.We will show that these risk measures are useful to control downside risk whenthe distribution of assets is non-symmetric. Further, we will propose a computational scheme to resolve the difficultyassociated with solving a large dense linear programming problems resulting from these models. We will demonstrate that this method can in fact solve problems consisting of10⁴ assets and 10⁵ scenarios within a practical amount of CPU time.     

Non-convex optimal portfolio sets and constant relative risk aversion

This paper shows by example that, under constant relative risk aversion (CRRA), the set of optimal portfolios can be non-convex even in the presence of a complete set of Arrow-Debreu securities. This implies that, with exclusively CRRA investors, market models without a strong distributional assumption such as that of the capital asset pricing model cannot be tested by testing the optimality of the market portfolio, or by assuming a representative investor. This demonstration extends the key result of Dybvig and Ross [Dybvig, P. H., & Ross S. A. (1982). Portfolio efficient sets. Econometrica, 50, 1525–1546], who showed an example of non-convexity with less restrictive utility assumptions but which could not apply to the case of a complete set of Arrow-Debreu securities.     

Capital Market Integration in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper studies capital market integration in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries and its implications for international portfolio investment allocation. Starting with four cointegration methodologies, we significantly reject the hypothesis of a stable, long-run bivariate relationship between each of these markets and the European Monetary Union (EMU), the United States, and a regional benchmark. This indicates the existence of significant diversification opportunities for three categories of investors (EMU, world, and regional investors). A recursive analysis based on Barari (2004) suggests that recently, the MENA markets have started to move toward international financial integration. Investigating the effect of selected financial, economic, and political events on such a process, we extend the methodology and find that the markets react heterogeneously to the different categories of shocks. They should therefore not be treated as a bloc for global allocation purposes. Finally, after adjusting the integration levels by relative market capitalization, Israel and Turkey are the most promising markets in the region, followed by Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco. Tunisia and Lebanon seem to be lagging behind.