Measuring and testing Granger causality over the spectrum: An application to European production expectation surveys

Decomposing Granger causality over the spectrum allows us to disentangle potentially different Granger causality relationships over different frequencies. This may yield new and complementary insights compared to traditional versions of Granger causality. In this paper, we compare two existing approaches in the frequency domain, proposed originally by Pierce [Pierce, D. A. (1979). R-squared measures for time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 901–910] and Geweke [Geweke, J. (1982). Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77, 304–324], and introduce a new testing procedure for the Pierce spectral Granger causality measure. To provide insights into the relative performance of this test, we study its power properties by means of Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, we apply the methodology in the context of the predictive value of the European production expectation surveys. This predictive content is found to vary widely with the frequency considered, illustrating the usefulness of not restricting oneself to a single overall test statistic.     

Technological and non-technological innovation and productivity in services vis-à-vis manufacturing sectors

In this paper, the links between investment in innovation activities, innovation outputs (technological and non-technological innovation) and productivity in services vis-à-vis the manufacturing sector are explored using innovation survey data from Uruguay. The size of firms, their cooperation in R&D activities, the use of public financial support, patent protection and the use of market sources of information are very important drivers of the decision to invest in innovation activities across sectors. The main determinants of technological and non-technological innovations are the level of investment in innovation activities and the size of the firm. The results indicate that both technological and non-technological innovations are positively associated to productivity gains in services, but non-technological innovations have a more important role. The reverse happens for manufacturing, where technological innovations are more relevant for productivity.     

A new consensus-based unemployment indicator

In this study we present a novel approach to measure the level of consensus among agents’ expectations. The proposed framework allows us to design a positional indicator that gives the percentage of agreement between survey expectations. While other aggregation methods such as the balance, which is constructed as the difference between the percentages of respondents giving positive and negative replies, explicitly omit the neutral information, the proposed metric allows synthesizing the information coming from all response categories, including the percentage of respondents who do not expect any change. In order to assess the performance of the proposed measure of consensus, we compare its ability to track the evolution of unemployment to that of the balance in eight European countries. With this aim, we scale both measures to generate one-period ahead forecasts of the unemployment rate. We find that the consensus-based unemployment indicator outperforms the balance in all countries except Denmark and Sweden, which suggests that the level of agreement among agents’ expectations is a good predictor of unemployment.     

The effects of technological turbulence and breadth on supply chain technology acceptance and adoption

The current empirical study examines the intention to use and subsequent implementation of a supply chain technology. Specifically, the authors extend the technology acceptance model (TAM) to incorporate the state of the technology environment (technological turbulence) and the extent to which other supply chain technologies have already been adopted by the firm (technological breadth). A series of seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) were used to analyze survey data from 195 respondents. The results show that in technologically turbulent environments, the relationships between the firm's perceived usefulness and ease of use and the firm's intention to use a supply chain technology are stronger. The study also finds that the relationship between the firm's intention to use a supply chain technology and the implementation of the technology is weaker in firms with greater technological breadth.     

Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.     

Assessing the Use of Internet Surveys in the Context of Advertisement Tracking Studies: A Case Study of Tourism Yukon's Winter Promotion Campaign

Abstract

As interest in the varying applications of Internet technology has expanded in recent years, so have discussions concerning the relative merits of this medium as a credible means for conducting market survey research. Proponents of this form of on-line surveying claim that as the Internet becomes more universally accepted as a means of communication, its utility for survey purposes will be largely related to its ability to conduct some forms of research faster, better, and more conclusively than other more traditional methods of interviewing. Other supporters highlight the approach's potential research advantages with respect to gaining access to especially difficult-to-find populations, its cost effectiveness from a data collection perspective, and its speed of interaction with respondent populations. Conversely, other researchers express more cautionary perspectives and emphasize that Internet survey methods tend to suffer many of the same shortcomings as those associated with more traditional survey methods: inappropriateness for communication with specific audiences, control over sample representativeness, “self-selection” biases and response turn-around time. As with other emerging market survey research tools, there is a need to systematically explore the strengths and weaknesses of these perspectives in the context of specific research situations. This research examines issues of sample representativeness, “self selection” or non-response bias, and appropriateness of the survey techniques in the context of advertising tracking research. It does this by comparing the socio-economic and behavioral traits of Internet and traditional (telephone and mail) survey respondents participating in a tourism advertisement tracking study in Canada.     

Innovation and Development: The Evidence From Innovation Surveys

In this article we investigate the existing evidence on innovation produced by innovation surveys in developing and emerging countries in Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We review the relevant literature, discuss methodological issues, and analyze the results for the countries with the most comparable surveys, considering the well-established findings of innovation surveys for Europe as a benchmark. From the evidence we considered, regional patterns are identified and some stylized facts on innovation and development are proposed, pointing out the specificity of innovation processes in economies engaged in industrialization and catching up.     

Measuring innovation in services: the role of surveys

The main aim of this paper was to analyse the role of European innovation surveys in measuring innovation in services. The various community innovation surveys (CISs) are analysed in the light of the three main theoretical approaches to innovation in services, namely assimilation, service-oriented and integrative. The analysis performed shows a gradual change in the way in which European surveys have been structured over time, highlighting a partial shift from the assimilation approach towards the integrative one. Furthermore, the paper provides a systematic assessment of the CIS experience and of the lessons to be drawn from it.     

The Need for a Marketing Reform: The Wines of the Loire Region

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on how the French wine industry and, in particular, the wine-producing Loire region in France is affected by global and domestic factors. An overview of some of the vast regulations prevailing in the French wine industry that prohibit the wine producers to compete efficiently, especially with the wines from the “new world,” is provided. A Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis is used as the tool to study the competitiveness of the French wine industry in general and the Loire region in particular. The French wine industry is too fragmented and subjected to too many controls and, as a result thereof, is not flexible enough to respond to market opportunities. French wines have the unique blend of “historical intangibles” of romance and mystery that have been part and parcel of wine for many centuries. This advantage is no longer a major competitive advantage, and the time has come to make decisions on which of the vast range of regulations are worthwhile to maintain to contribute positively to the best interests of the French wine industry.