Further results on monopolistic competition,markup pricing and the business cycle in Switzerland

This paper investigates how firms’ market power affects the price level. Based on a small macro-model it is shown empirically that firms have structural markup pricing power and take advantage of favourable business cycle fluctuations. To this aim, a multivariate time series model with double integrated variables is estimated. Thereby a model-based business cycle indicator can be derived. Its information content is confronted with survey data giving rise to what is going to be called semantic cross validation approach.

Augmenting travel cost models with contingent behavior data

This paper proposes contingent behavior survey questions as a valuable supplement to observed data in travel cost models of non-market demand for recreational resources. A set of observed and contingent behavior results for each survey respondent allows the researcher to control for individual heterogeneity by taking advantage of panel data methods when exploring the nature of respondent demands. The contingent scenarios also provide opportunities to (a) test for differences between observed and contingent preferences and/or (b) assess likely demands under conditionsbeyond the domain of observed variation in costs or resource attributes. Most importantly, contingent scenarios allow the researcher to imposeexogenously varying travel costs. Exogenous imposition of travel costs together with panel methods reduces the omitted variables bias that plagues observed-data travel cost models of recreational demand. Using a convenience sample of data for illustrative purposes, we show how to estimate the demand for recreational angling by combining observed and contingent behavior data. We begin with simple naive pooled Poisson models and progress to more theoretically appropriate fixed effects panel Poisson specifications.The authors are at the University of Nevada and UCLA, respectively. We gratefully acknowledge the comments of both Scott Shonkwiler and participants in the W133 meetings in Santa Fe, New Mexico and for research material provided by Wayne Gray. The data were provided by Rang Narayanan. Research assistance was provided by Jerry McGraw and Natalie Tucker. Research partially supported by the Nevada Experiment Station. Any errors or omissions remain the authors' responsibility.     

Are medium‐scale farms driving agricultural transformation in sub‐Saharan Africa?

This study presents evidence of profound farm‐level transformation in parts of sub‐Saharan Africa, identifies major sources of dynamism in the sector, and proposes an updated typology of farms that reflects the evolving nature of African agriculture. Repeat waves of national survey data are used to examine changes in crop production and marketed output by farm size. Between the first and most recent surveys (generally covering 6 to 10 years), the share of national marketed crop output value accounted for by medium‐scale farms rose in Zambia from 23% to 42%, in Tanzania from 17% to 36%, and in Nigeria from 7% to 18%. The share of land under medium‐scale farms is not rising in densely populated countries such as Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda, where land scarcity is impeding the pace of medium‐scale farm acquisitions. Medium‐scale farmers are a diverse group, reflecting distinct entry pathways into agriculture, encouraged by the rapid development of land rental, purchase, and long‐term lease markets. The rise of medium‐scale farms is affecting the region in diverse ways that are difficult to generalize. Findings indicate that these farms can be a dynamic driver of agricultural transformation but this does not reduce the importance of maintaining a clear commitment to supporting smallholder farms. Strengthening land tenure security of local rural people to maintain land rights and support productivity investments by smallholder households remains crucial.     

Do Risk Disclosures Matter When It Counts? Evidence from the Swiss Franc Shock

We examine the relation between disclosure quality and information asymmetry among market participants following an exogenous shock to macroeconomic risk. In 2015, the Swiss National Bank abruptly announced that it would abandon the longstanding minimum euro‐Swiss franc exchange rate. We find evidence suggesting that firms with more transparent disclosures regarding their foreign exchange risk exposure ex ante exhibit significantly lower information asymmetry ex post. The information gap in bid‐ask spreads appears within 30 minutes of the announcement and persists for two weeks, during which new information gradually substitutes for past disclosures. We validate the information dynamics of past risk disclosures with three field surveys: (1) Sell‐side analysts emphasize the importance of existing (risk) disclosures in evaluating the translational and transactional effects of the currency shock. (2) Lending banks’ credit officers rely on past disclosures as the primary information source available for smaller (unlisted) firms in the immediate aftermath of the shock. (3) Investor‐relations managers use existing financial filings as a key resource when communicating with external stakeholders. The results suggest that historical disclosures help investors attenuate information asymmetry in light of unexpected news.     

Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland

Inflation expectations are a key variable in conducting monetary policy. However, these expectations are generally unobservable and only certain proxy variables exist, such as surveys on inflation expectations. This article offers guidance on the appropriate quantification of household inflation expectations in the Swiss Consumer Survey, where answers are qualitative in nature. We apply and evaluate different variants of the probability approach and the regression approach; we demonstrate that models that include answers on perceived inflation and allow for time-varying response thresholds yield the best results; and we show why the originally proposed approach of Fluri and Spörndli (1987) has resulted in heavily biased inflation expectations since the mid-1990s. Furthermore, we discuss some of the key features of Swiss household inflation expectations, i.e. the fact that there has been a shift in expectation formation since 2000 (expectations are better anchored and less adaptive, and there is lower disagreement of expectations). We suggest that this may be linked to the Swiss National Bank’s adjustment of its monetary policy framework around this time. In addition, we outline how expectation formation in Switzerland is in line with the sticky information model, where information disseminates slowly from professional forecasters to households.     

The Relationship between Behavioral and Attitudinal Trust: A Cross-cultural Study

We study the relationship between trust in an experiment and trust measured by means of popular survey items in different countries. Students from Chile, Colombia, India, Mexico and Sweden participate in a public goods game experiment and answer a set of standard attitudinal survey questions about trust. We find that behavioral trust and attitudinal trust significantly differ among countries. Behavioral trust is highest in Sweden, followed by Latin America, and lowest in India. Attitudinal trust is highest in Chile and Sweden, followed by India and Mexico, and lowest in Colombia. Further, the predictive power of survey items also differs among countries. Trust measured by survey items is significantly related to behavioral trust in some but not in all societies. No single survey item predicts actual trust across all countries. Plausible explanations of the inconsistent relationship between behavioral and attitudinal trust across countries are discussed.     

近二十年来我国人口迁移和流动调查综论

对 2 0世纪 80年代以来我国开展的有关人口迁移和流动的调查进行了回顾和总结 ,提出了进一步完善有关调查的建议。     

Defining and Measuring Competences: An Application to Graduate Surveys

In this article, we review the competence concept and apply it to the measurement of competences in graduate surveys. The relevant literature reveals that three important perspectives on the meaning and operationalisation of competences may be distinguished: The educational perspective, the labour market perspective and the human resources perspective. The second part of the article is concerned with the measurement of competences in the context of labour market research using graduate surveys. Using the insights obtained from the literature, competences are defined and a measurement method is chosen. Empirical evidence suggests that this measurement method performs better than previously used measurement methodologies.     

The Quality of Data Obtained from Self-Completed Questionnaires in a Survey of High School Students

This study examines issues of data quality in a survey conducted in a nationwide probability sample of 8985 students in the last four years of high school education in Greece. Respondents completed an extensive questionnaire whose main topic of investigation was the use of licit and illicit substances (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, etc.). We examined the effect of sex, age and school performance on data quality. Specifically, we related these factors to the probabilities of correctly observing filters in the questionnaire, of certain inconsistencies in responses, of reporting difficulty in understanding the questions and being able to answer honestly. It was found that all these factors have strong effects. Boys’ responses presented more problems than girls’ (median odds ratio in a series of separate logistic regressions = 1.35) and younger respondents’ more than older (median odds ratio 1.34 for ages 13–14 and 1.06 for ages 15–16, compared to ages 17–18). The strongest effect was related to school performance compared to the best students (school marks 18–20), median odds ratios were 1.31 for marks 15–17, 1.76 for 12–14 and 3.25 for 10–11. Implications for questionnaire design are discussed.