Monitoring the foreign exchange rate benchmark fix

ABSTRACT

We develop a Manipulation Index (ManIx) that captures the potential manipulation intention of dealers during the World Markets/Reuters (WMR) benchmark (London Close) period at 4 pm London time through a unique algorithm and simulation. The application of this model (using a dataset with dealers’ identities) can identify banks that are prone to potential manipulative behavior. The results concerning the identified banks are validated by the regulatory investigations. Implementation of this algorithm allows regulators better direct their limited resources towards more targeted in-depth investigation.     

Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years

We commemorate the 50th anniversary of Ball and Brown [1968] by chronicling its impact on capital market research in accounting. We trace the evolution of various research paths that post–Ball and Brown [1968] researchers took as they sought to build on the foundation laid by Ball and Brown [1968] to create a body of research on the usefulness, timeliness, and other properties of accounting numbers. We discuss how those paths often link back to the groundwork laid and questions originally posed in Ball and Brown [1968].     

Settlement procedures and stock market efficiency

This study examines why most derivatives markets that settle on the day following expiration choose the opening rather than the closing price as the final settlement price (FSP), whereas most markets that settle on the expiration day select an average rather than a single price as the FSP. Four exogenous changes in the Taiwan Futures Exchange settlement procedures provide an experimental basis for studying the settlement procedures’ impact on underlying assets. Greatest market efficiency is observed when the FSP is determined by a single rather than an average price and hypothesize that manipulation is prevented at the expense of market quality.     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

Methodological Advances in DEA: A survey and an application for the Dutch electricity sector

We survey the methodological advances in DEA over the last 25 years and discuss the necessary conditions for a sound empirical application. We hope this survey will contribute to the further dissemination of DEA, the knowledge of its relative strengths and weaknesses, and the tools currently available for exploiting its full potential. Our main points are illustrated by the case of the DEA study used by the regulatory office of the Dutch electricity sector (Dienst Toezicht Elektriciteitswet; Dte) for setting price caps.     

Plantation Slavery and Economic Development in the Antebellum Southern United States

The relationship of plantation slavery in the Americas to economic and social development in the regions it was dominant has long been a subject of scholarly debate. The existing literature is divided into two broad interpretive models –'planter capitalism' (Fogel and Engerman, Fleisig) and the 'pre-bourgeois civilization' (Genovese, Moreno-Fraginals). While each grasps aspects of plantation slavery's dynamics, neither provides a consistent and coherent historical or theoretical account of slavery's impact on economic development because they focus on the subjective motivations of economic actors (planters or slaves) independent of their social context. Borrowing Robert Brenner's concept of 'social property relations', the article presents an alternative analysis of the dynamics of plantation slavery and their relation to economic development in the regions it dominated.     

Is Volatility the Best Predictor of Market Crashes?

The objective of this paper is to determine the best predictor of equity market crashes by focusing particularly on volatility and market liquidity. In finance, volatility has traditionally been regarded as the best measure of market risk. However, this paper shows that the forecast value of market liquidity, in particular our modified calculated market depth, predicts equity market crashes much more accurately than does the forecast values of EGARCH or Implied Volatility.     

Nonparametric Dynamic Production Analysis and the Theory of Cost

While the dynamic theory of production provides little insight towards identifying a specific functional form for the firm's technology, dynamic production analysis has been explored traditionally in a parametric framework. A nonparametric dynamic dual cost approach to production analysis is developed in this article. Recovering technological information from intertemporal cost minimizing behavior is possible without imposing a parametric functional form on the firm's technology. Nonparametric tests to analyze the structure of a dynamic technology are presented from a dynamic cost minimizing perspective. The empirical implementation of these tests is illustrated for a balanced panel data set of Pennsylvania dairy operators during the time period 1986–1992.     

Contrarian Investment in the Dutch Stock Market

The efficient markets hypothesis states that at any times security prices fully reflect all available information. Contrarian investment strategies do not recognize the efficiency of capital markets. They call for buying undervalued stocks, i.e. stocks with a low price relative to their fundamentals. The idea behind such a strategy is to take advantage of the extrapolation behaviour of naive investors. Using a fresh and extensive data set from the Dutch stock market, we found that these strategies yield an outperformance without a higher risk. Our results make it hard to maintain the efficient market hypothesis.