基于IAD延伸决策模型的农户征地意愿研究

基于奥斯特罗姆IAD模型的延伸框架,通过广东省21个市(县)2013年的调查数据,首先运用二元logistic整体回归模型对征地制度改革中农户的征地意愿进行研究,进而发现细分已征地农户与未征地农户的意愿差异并差别分析的必要。研究结果显示:除了一般的户主特征变量、征地补偿标准变量外,程序变量和认知改革变量对已征地和未征地农户的征地意愿影响尤其显著,但二者在近乎均质的行动舞台中,基于对事前最终行动结果信息的感知和预测,在征地意愿上表现出了不同的变量特征,数据分析表明未征地农户是以征地农户的最终行动结果(决策前)作为决策参照,以制定激励和预期收益调整征地意愿决策。另外,回归模型显示在征地意愿的影响因素中,程序公正(协议征地)要优于货币补偿,农户对土地财产性权利分配的关切不是征地制度改革自身所能解决的。     

How does the effect of pre-play suggestions vary with group size? Experimental evidence from a threshold public-good game

Numerous studies have examined factors influencing the likelihood of cooperative outcomes in nonzero-sum games, but there has been little study of the interaction between two of the most important: group size and pre-play cheap talk. We report results from an experiment in which groups of size between 2 and 15 play a one-shot multi-player threshold public-good game. In our random leader treatment, all group members select a suggestion (e.g., “Everyone should choose X”), with one randomly chosen to be broadcast to the group. In a choice only treatment, subjects choose suggestions but none is sent, and in a baseline treatment, there are no suggestions at all. We find a negative interaction between group size and this kind of communication: the beneficial effect of both suggestions overall and cooperative suggestions on cooperation, cooperative outcomes, and payoffs decreases sharply as the group size increases. We find a similar negative interaction in a follow-up treatment in which all group members’ suggestions are broadcast to the group. Our results suggest that care should be taken in generalising conclusions from small-group experiments to large groups.     

基于Stacking模型融合的店铺销量预测

为了实现企业产品销量预估,提高生产供应的准确性与效率,提出了基于Stacking模型的融合算法进行销量预测。算法设计了两层堆叠的模型结构,初级学习器采用随机森林、支持向量回归、差分整合移动平均自回归、轻量级梯度提升机器和门控循环单元5种单模型,将分类与回归树作为次级学习器构成Stacking融合模型,并对数据进行了预测。预测结果显示,使用Stacking模型融合后得到了较好的预测结果,比单模型中效果最好的模型的均方根误差更小,平均绝对误差更小,决定系数值更大,表明Stacking融合模型的预测准确率更高。所设计模型可用于对企业店铺的产品销量进行预测,帮助企业更好地安排生产、营销活动,为减少库存、缩短生产销售周期提供数据支持,对企业生产决策有一定的参考价值。     

Interactive data and retail investor decision‐making: an experimental study

The results of an experimental study of retail investors' use of eXtensible Business Reporting Language tagged (interactive) data and PDF format for making investment decisions are reported. The main finding is that data format made no difference to participants' ability to locate and integrate information from statement footnotes to improve investment decisions. Interactive data were perceived by participants as quick and ‘accurate’, but it failed to facilitate the identification of the adjustment needed to make the ratios accurate for comparison. An important implication is that regulators and software designers should work to reduce user reliance on the comparability of ratios generated automatically using interactive data.     

Does social capital determine innovation? To what extent?

This paper deals with two questions: Does social capital determine innovation in manufacturing firms? If it is the case, to what extent? To deal with these questions, we review the literature on innovation in order to see how social capital came to be added to the other forms of capital as an explanatory variable of innovation. In doing so, we have been led to follow the dominating view of the literature on social capital and innovation which claims that social capital cannot be captured through a single indicator, but that it actually takes many different forms that must be accounted for. Therefore, to the traditional explanatory variables of innovation, we have added five forms of structural social capital (business network assets, information network assets, research network assets, participation assets, and relational assets) and one form of cognitive social capital (reciprocal trust). Based on the survey data administered from April to June 2000 to 440 manufacturing firms of diverse industries in a region in the southwest of Montréal, we have found that 68.5% of the firms have developed product or process innovations during the 3 years preceding the survey. Assuming that innovation is not a discrete event but a complex process, we have modeled the decision to innovate as a two-stage decision-making process: in the first stage, the firms deal with the decision about whether to innovate or not whereas, at the second stage, the firms that have decided to innovate must make a decision about the degree of radicalness of the innovation to undertake. In a context where empirical investigations regarding the relations between social capital and innovation are still scanty, this paper makes contributions to the advancement of knowledge in providing new evidence regarding the impact and the extent of social capital on innovation at the two decision-making stages considered in this study. Regarding the decision to innovate or not that firms must initially make, we have provided strong evidence that diverse forms of social capital influence this decision and, more importantly, that marginal increases in social capital, especially in social capital taking the forms of participation assets and relational assets, contribute more than any other explanatory variable to increase the likelihood of innovation of firms. As for the decision to be made at the second stage concerning the magnitude of radicalness to bring in the development of new product or process innovations, this paper contributes to the advancement of knowledge by supplying the strongest evidence that diverse forms of social capital determine the radicalness of innovation, and more importantly, that social capital taking the form of research network assets contributes more than any other explanatory variable to explain the radicalness of innovation. The second variable that exerts the strongest impact on the radicalness of innovation is the number of different advanced technologies employed by firms for production.     

如何进行现金流量表分析

在日益崇尚"增值为金,现金至尊"的现代理财的环境中,对信息使用者而言,现金流量表的分析变得越来越重要。文章分析了现金流量表的目的、意义和基于现金流量表的评价以及阅读流量表时应注意的问题。     

扁平证券市场线和融资限制——中国股票市场的实证检验

资本资产定价模型（CAPM)在国际金融市场的实证检验结果往往呈现扁平证券市场线现象。一些学者认为融资限制是该现象的产生原因。本文旨在研究扁平证券市场线现象是否存在于中国股市,同时分析融资限制对中国股市证券市场线的影响。本文采用投资组合分析法对A股主板市场进行实证检验。本文研究发现：（1)扁平的证券市场线现象同样存在于中国股票市场中;（2)在中国股票市场中,融资限制与证券市场线的斜率呈负相关,与截距呈正相关,这符合融资限制理论;（3)以上两点发现同样存在于多因子定价模型中,这表明本文研究结果具有稳健性。       

Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: A decision-focused approach

This paper explores how a structured decision process, based on methods from the decision sciences, can contribute to the integration of local and scientific knowledge in environmental decision making. Emphasis is placed on the use of key decision structuring steps and analytical tools to help ensure the systematic treatment of both fact-based and value-based knowledge claims. Practical methods are discussed for communicating and evaluating values and technical information across participants and cultures in ways that are methodologically rigorous and encourage different sources of credible knowledge to be considered on equal footing. Examples are presented from water use planning in British Columbia, Canada, where stakeholder consultations at 22 hydroelectric facilities demonstrate specific techniques that can be used to clarify values, to explore hypotheses, to clarify uncertainties, to identify and evaluate options, to make value-based choices, and to facilitate mutual learning.     

虚拟价值的影响因素及典型经济特征

影响虚拟价值的五个主要因素是:认知、信息、文化、体验、制度。在广义虚拟经济中,虚拟价值的非边际性使企业垄断定价权成为可能,垄断定价权是广义虚拟经济边际报酬递增的重要原因,垄断定价权在广义虚拟经济中具备正面的合理性和必然性。