中国跨境融资管理的问题与改进

中国从2015年起逐步将跨境资本流动纳入宏观审慎政策框架,目前对跨境资本流动的监管存在的不足主要包括:作为MPA的一个指标,不单独进行管理;风险评估的量化不足;行政干预多,市场化程度低等三个方面.资本账户的开放要求我们对于目前的跨境融资管理做进一步的改革.建议:单独设立跨境融资的宏观风险指标,并进行评估;将现有的固定比...     

Marketed tax avoidance: an economic analysis∗

Recent years have witnessed the growth of mass-marketed tax avoidance schemes aimed at the middle (not top) of the income distribution, with significant implications for tax revenue. We examine the consequences for the structure of income tax, and for tax authority anti-avoidance efforts, of tax avoidance of this type. In a model that allows for both demand- and supply-side considerations, we find that: there is an endogenous threshold income below which taxpayers do not avoid, and above which they avoid maximally; the per-dollar price of tax avoidance is decreasing in income under progressive taxation; endogenous adjustments in the price of avoidance make supply less responsive to anti-avoidance activity than thought previously; and avoidance may drive a non-monotone relationship between tax rates and tax revenue. These findings suggest that new approaches to anti-avoidance, beyond legal enforcement, might be needed.     

The effects of exchange rate pass-through and cost channel on price level: The case of fragile five countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.     

从经济政策到社会政策：征地制度变迁解释

研究目的：对中国征地制度改革进行回顾分析,梳理总结征地制度改革路径,并依此设计未来征地制度改革方向。研究方法：基于文献和政策梳理的制度变迁研究。研究结果：在国家工业化城镇化背景下观察征地制度演进的路径,征地制度改革与国家对城乡关系的认识、国家经济社会发展背景密切相关。中国征地制度改革是一种渐进式的改革,征收范围和补偿安置的变化都呈现出渐进式特点。征地制度改革关注的问题逐渐从注重货币补偿等经济领域过渡到注重住房、社保安置及程序公正等社会领域。研究结论：未来征地制度改革方向应以促进经济与社会协调发展、促进实现公平正义为价值取向。对土地征收区分不同项目类型进行分类设计,在公共利益的审定中发挥地方人大的作用。     

The puzzle of greenhouse gas footprints of oil abundance

The present inquiry lays a groundwork for the analysis of the net greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of oil in the oil-abundant settings. To address the research question, the study puts forward a three-sector decision model, which provides a common ground for the assessment of the interaction of the structuralist and institutional factors influencing environmental pollution in the oil-reliant economies. The study shows that fossil-fuel abundance triggers forces, which induce diametrically opposed effects concerning atmospheric pollution. These are the rising carbon-intensive oil extraction and processing and fossil-fueled power generation versus shrinkage of the carbon-intensive manufacturing and growth of the low-carbon tertiarization. The theoretical analysis enables compartmentalization of the essential factors, which determine GHG emissions in the respective countries. To assess the significance of the proposed theoretical framework, the study employs multivariate panel co-integration techniques and two-stage fixed effects estimations for a dataset of 38 oil-producing countries for the time period between 1960 and 2018. In contrast to the existing literature, this study drives apart from the black box approaches that employ just one omnibus variable, per capita income.     

Restricted maximum likelihood estimation under Eisenhart model Ill

For a balanced two-way mixed model, the maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted ML (REML) estimators of the variance components were obtained and compared under the non-negativity requirements of the variance components by L ee and K apadia (1984). In this note, for a mixed (random blocks) incomplete block model, explicit forms for the REML estimators of variance components are obtained. They are always non-negative and have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the analysis of variance (AOV) estimators. The asymptotic sampling variances of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators and the REML estimators are compared and the balanced incomplete block design (BIBD) is considered as a special case. The ML estimators are shown to have smaller asymptotic variances than the REML estimators, but a numerical result in the randomized complete block design (RCBD) demonstrated that the performances of the REML and ML estimators are not much different in the MSE sense.     

Pseudo empirical likelihood method in the presence of missing data

In this paper, we propose an estimator for the population mean when some observations on the study and auxiliary variables are missing from the sample. The proposed estimator is valid for any unequal probability sampling design, and is based upon the pseudo empirical likelihood method. The proposed estimator is compared with other estimators in a simulation study.     

Structural breaks in the mean of dividend-price ratios: Implications of learning on stock return predictability

In their out-of-sample predictions of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks, Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) implicitly assume that economic agents’ perception of the regime-specific mean for the dividend-price ratio is time-invariant within a regime. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and employ least squares learning with constant gain (or constant-gain learning) in estimating economic agents’ time-varying perception for the mean of dividend-price ratio. We obtain better out-of-sample predictions of stock returns than in Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) for both the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Our empirical results suggest that economic agents’ learning plays an important role in the dynamics of stock returns.     

The Importance of Tax Adjustments When Evaluating Wage Expectations*

Using elicited expectations of future gross salaries, we evaluate characteristics causing German students to make larger or smaller estimation errors. While students seem to underestimate actual salaries by 18 percent, we show that these errors are highly attributable to misconceptions of the progressive income tax. Developing a suitable adjustment procedure, we correct students’ estimates and find that errors decline by 12 percentage points. Conducting regression analyses, we reveal strong connections with students’ age, gender, work experience, secondary school track, and knowledge about student loans. These results change notably if not controlling for students’ misconceptions of the tax system.     

基于DMC-Ⅱ数码航空摄影测量区域网布设研究

从航空摄影到基础地理信息数据产品的获取包括航空摄影、地面控制、空三加密、内业测图等几个阶段。相片控制测量是航空摄影测量的基础工作,通过空三加密获得内业测图所需的外方位元素数据。随着DMC等数字航摄仪应用到航测生产领域当中,DMC影像数据在全数字摄影测量中发挥了越来越重要的作用。本文利用DMC-II数码航空影像,通过实验对DMC-II数字航摄资料的在西南控制困难地区外业像控的布点方案、基线数量、点位位置采取不同方案进行内业加密问题进行研究、分析,总结区域网布点方案的规律性。