Can Federal Grants Mitigate Social Competition?

The European economic integration leads to increasing mobilityof factors, thereby threatening the stability of social transferprograms. This article investigates the possibility to achieveby means of voluntary matching grants both the optimal allocationof factors and the optimal level of redistribution in the presenceof factor mobility. We use a fiscal competition model a la Wildasin(1991) in which states differ in their technologies and preferencesfor redistribution. We first investigate a simple process inwhich the federal authority progressively raises the matchinggrants to the district choosing the lowest transfer and alldistricts respond optimally to the resulting change in transfersall around. This process is shown to increase efficiency ofboth production and redistribution. However, it does not guaranteethat all districts gain, nor that an efficient level of redistributionis attained. Assuming complete information among districts,we derive the willingness of each district to match the contributionof other districts and we show that the aggregate willingnessto pay for matching rates converges to zero when both the efficientlevel of redistribution and the efficient allocation of factorsare achieved. We then describe an adjustment process for thematching rates that will lead districts to the efficient outcomeand guarantee that everyone will gain. (JEL Classification:H23, H70)     

Do German Welfare‐to‐Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?

Abstract. During the last decade, many Western economies reformed their welfare systems with the aim of activating welfare recipients by increasing welfare‐to‐work programmes (WTWP) and job‐search enforcement. We evaluate the short‐term effects of three important German WTWP implemented after a major reform in January 2005 (‘Hartz IV’), namely short training, further training with a planned duration of up to three months and public workfare programmes (‘One‐Euro‐Jobs’). Our analysis is based on a combination of a large‐scale survey and administrative data that is rich with respect to individual, household, agency level and regional information. We use this richness of the data to base the econometric evaluation on a selection‐on‐observables approach. We find that short‐term training programmes, on average, increase their participants' employment perspectives. There is also considerable effect heterogeneity across different subgroups of participants that could be exploited to improve the allocation of welfare recipients to the specific programmes and thus increase overall programme effectiveness.     

农村居民消费结构变动的时序分析——以河北省为例

基于中国经济增长模式正在向消费主导型转变,以农村居民的生活消费作为研究重点,选择河北省作为研究区域,通过1993～2008年的时间序列数据对该区域农村居民的消费结构进行统计分析,意图探寻在相对发达的农村地区如何进一步优化农村消费结构,找到扩大农村消费市场的有效途径,从而促进经济的协调发展,为新农村的建设提供政策建议。     

The impact of production offshoring on the skill composition of manufacturing firms: evidence from Italy

In this work we explore how the international outsourcing of production impacts the skill composition of employment within Italian manufacturing firms. In particular, our aim is to assess whether the choice to offshore production activities to cheap‐labour countries implies a bias in the employment of skilled workers relative to unskilled ones.

Using a balanced panel of firms covering the period 1995–2003, we set up a counterfactual analysis in which, by using a difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching estimator, we compare the dynamics of skill demand for treated and control firms while addressing the possible problem of selection bias.

Our results identify a ‘potential’ skill bias effect of production offshoring. In particular, we find that treated firms tend to show an upward shift in the skill ratio with respect to the counterfactual sample, but coefficients are not significantly different from zero. When we look at the elements of the skill ratio separately, we find that the skill bias is driven by a fall in the employment of production workers (blue collars), rather than by the increase in the employment of non‐production workers (white collars), thus providing further evidence on the unskilled labour‐saving nature of international outsourcing.     

企业退出出口市场行为与企业的经营表现——基于倾向评分匹配的经验分析

文章运用倾向评分匹配方法分析了企业退出出口市场行为对其经营表现的影响。研究结果表明,经营表现越差的出口企业退出出口市场的概率越大;企业退出出口市场行为对企业经营表现的影响主要体现在影响就业增长和产出增长方面,而对劳动生产率的影响总体不显著。具体表现为,企业退出出口市场会对其就业增长和产出增长产生持续的显著负向作用,这说明我国国内需求尚不足以使企业退出出口市场后继续保持退出前的就业增长率和产出增长率。因此,在提倡出口转内销的同时需注重提高出口企业在国际市场竞争中的存活率。     

Is self-employment really a bad experience? : The effects of previous self-employment on subsequent wage-employment wages

We use propensity score matching methods to quantify the effects of past self-employment experience on subsequent earnings in dependent employment using data on the population of Danish men observed between 1990 and 1996. Our results generally confirm existing studies in that we find that a spell of self-employment is associated with lower hourly wages compared to workers who were consecutively wage-employed. We also show, however, that this effect disappears—and even becomes positive in some settings—for formerly self-employed who find dependent employment in the same sector as their self-employment sector. Hence, the on average negative effect of self-employment is rather caused by sector switching than by the self-employment experience per se. Moreover, formerly self-employed who either enjoyed a high income or hired at least one worker during their self-employment spell receive wages in subsequent dependent employment that are at least as high as for individuals who have been consecutively wage-employed.     

“倒挂型”土地利用总体规划的耕地保护效果评价

研究目的:揭示"倒挂型"土地利用总体规划与耕地保护效果之间的关系,以期为国土空间规划的编制提供参考。研究方法:倾向值匹配法。研究结果:(1)耕地"倒挂型"规划对耕地面积净变化的影响具有统计显著性,2006—2008年,耕保指标"倒挂型"规划使耕地面积净变化量平均减少2.270万hm2;(2)2010—2016年,耕保指标"倒挂型"规划使耕地面积净变化量平均减少0.496万hm2;(3)建设用地"倒挂型"规划对耕地面积净变化量并无显著影响。研究结论:在省级政府耕地保护责任目标考核的制度环境下,耕地"倒挂型"规划对地方政府形成一定压力,促使各级政府采取措施加以应对,从而使得"倒挂型"规划在一定程度上降低了耕地净减少量。     

基于不同城市化发展阶段的山西省城镇建设用地适度集约利用研究

研究目的:针对城市化进程中的土地低效利用以及过度集约问题,探讨不同城市化发展阶段的土地集约利用状况及适度集约利用状态。研究方法:采用匹配度模型、曲线估计模型和多目标规划模型,对山西省的土地集约利用进行分区优化。研究结果:(1)1999—2012年山西省土地集约利用与城市化水平之间的匹配趋势逐渐由失调、磨合向协调转变,但不同地区之间的匹配水平差距却在逐渐扩大;(2)2018年山西省城市化水平处于低于30%、30%～70%和高于70%时,以单位城镇建设用地固定资产投资额为表征的土地适度集约利用值分别为249.93万元/km~2、367.57万元/km~2和692.72万元/km~2,两项指标叠加全省可划分为平稳发展区、重点挖潜区和优化拓展区,并提出了不同地区差别化的建设用地管控政策。研究结论:不同城市化发展阶段的土地适度集约利用研究能为制定区域差别化政策提供参考,以促进该地区的土地集约利用水平达到适度状态。     

市外旅行商行为与重庆旅游地营销匹配度探讨——基于网络调查视角

旅行商是连接旅游者和旅游地的桥梁。虽然旅行商与旅游地之间形成密不可分的利益关系,但在现实的旅行商和旅游地关系中,却存在较多的问题:个别大型旅行商"绑架"要挟旅游地,旅游地营销战略与旅行商推荐线路性质不匹配等。以压力-状态-响应理论和刺激-反映理论为指导,选取2010年和2011年国家旅游局发布的100强上榜旅行商中的重庆旅游地以外的60家旅行商为样本,通过网络调查方法,获取其推介的重庆旅游线路的相关情况,并加以分析整理,再结合重庆市旅游营销的具体实践,探求二者之间的匹配响应关系,得出市外旅行商和重庆旅游地营销之间存在匹配响应较低的结论,其结果是大大降低重庆旅游营销效果。最后,文章给出旅游地和旅行商之间匹配关系调整的一些对策,以期对重庆旅游营销有所裨益。