财政资助能否提升人力资本？——基于CEPS数据的实证分析

义务教育阶段的财政资助是中国特色重大专项转移支付。基于新人力资本理论,运用倾向得分匹配的固定效应模型,依据中国教育追踪调查数据（CEPS）,考量财政资助对人力资本的影响。结果显示：财政资助有助于提升人力资本,具体表现在对个人非认知能力及其外向性、尽责性与开放性的提升。同时,自我教育期望和父母陪伴在财政资助与人力资本中起到部分中介作用。鉴于此,应进一步深化财政资助工作的育人属性,注重人力资本积累,因人施策提升财政资助绩效。     

Disappearing and Reappearing Dividends in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Indian Companies

This article examines the empirical determinants of dividend payout policy for 947 sample firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in India from 1995 to 2013. The author identifies three distinct trends in the propensity to pay dividends between 1995 and 2013. The regression analysis suggests that most of the decline is due to the dividend payout policies of smaller, less profitable, younger firms and firms with comparatively more investment opportunities, high financial leverage, high business risk, and high dividend distribution tax. The author finds significant positive impact of catering incentives on the propensity to pay dividends, thus supporting catering theory of dividends.     

南方水网地区“莲虾共作”立体种养生态农业模式——以湖北省鄂州市峒山村为例

文章以峒山村为例,对"莲虾共作"立体种养生态农业模式的内涵、技术流程、配套技术以及经济、生态和社会效益进行了系统的研究分析。"莲虾共作"模式以4年为一个轮换周期。莲田养虾系统和人工湿地一样具有净化水质、涵养水源,保护农田生物多样性等功能,使系统内物质能量得到高效利用,减少农药和化肥施用,有效遏制农业面源污染,同时产出质优、安全的莲籽、小龙虾等农产品。"莲虾共作"模式平均纯收入可达到5.72万元/hm2,比"稻虾共作"模式纯收入高出1/2以上。最后提了加强"莲虾共作"模式示范推广和编制技术规程的建议。     

Household nutrition and income impacts of using dairy technologies in mixed crop–livestock production systems

Technologies like improved breeds of dairy cows and improved forages have the potential to significantly increase dairy cow productivity and farmers’ profits in developing countries. However, adoption of such technologies has been low in Ethiopia, despite numerous efforts to disseminate the technologies in the past. Some studies argue that adoption of technologies is low because welfare effects of the technologies could be insignificant or negative to certain groups of farmers. This article employed propensity score matching and inverse probability weighting estimator with regression adjustment to examine the difference in household nutrition and income between adopters and nonadopters of dairy technologies in rural Ethiopia. We find that adoption of cross‐bred dairy cows and improved forages increases household nutrition and income. The significant household nutrition and income impact for adopters support the notion that many Ethiopian smallholders have not adopted dairy technologies because adopters and nonadopters of dairy technologies have inherent differences in welfare outcome potentials. The results suggest that interventions that enhance access to farm resources and address barriers to input and output value chains could improve adoption of dairy technologies.     

Do ‘foreigners’ pay more? The effects of investor type and nationality on office transaction prices in New York City

Are commercial real estate prices in metropolitan New York affected by the type or nationality of the investors involved in a transaction? Previous research has highlighted differences in pricing between in-state and out-of-state investors and between different types of investors, but there are few extant studies that consider the influence of nationality on pricing at a micro-level. Foreign investors might pay more than domestic investors for commercial real estate assets because of a lack of information or experience in the market concerned. However, they might use local partners or brokers to mitigate such problems. To explore these issues, we use data provided by Real Capital Analytics on over 3000 office transactions in the New York metro area from 2001 to 2015. We use hedonic regression techniques and propensity score matching to examine whether pricing differs across investor groups after controlling for asset attributes. We find that foreign investors pay more than domestic investors at acquisition, but receive more when selling assets. Tests suggest that it is unmeasured aspects of quality that explain any apparent overpayment for offices in this location, not information issues.     

基于重心模型的安徽省城镇化与生态环境匹配度分析

研究目的:以2005—2014年的城镇化与生态环境综合指数为基础,运用重心模型测算安徽省城镇化发展与生态环境匹配度,探讨两者之间的交互作用,为政府在城镇化进程中如何保护环境提供决策依据。研究方法:熵值法、重心模型。研究结果:(1)安徽省城镇化发展和生态环境综合指数地区差异显著,生态环境质量随着城镇化水平的提升呈下滑趋势,"凸""凹"相致,逆向明显;(2)城镇化重心与生态环境重心在东西方向的偏移幅度明显大于南北方向的偏移幅度;(3)城镇化重心、生态环境重心均向西南偏移,但前者的变化过程较后者更为明显;(4)城镇化与生态环境匹配度演化轨迹均呈M型,但整体匹配性较差,匹配年份仅占22.22%,平均匹配度仅为-0.1605。研究结论:2005—2014年安徽省城镇化水平与生态环境状态整体处于较不匹配状态,提高城镇土地利用绩效,坚持集约、绿色和低碳的新型城镇化道路,是未来安徽省城镇化演进中破解环境问题的关键。     

土地流转对农户农业机械使用的影响

研究目的:探究农业机械化发展的制约因素,为实现农业现代化和乡村振兴提供理论和实证依据。研究方法:本文基于2016年湖北省农户实地调查数据,采用反事实分析框架,运用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)分析土地流转对农业机械使用的影响。研究结果:土地流转对农业机械化水平有显著影响,土地转入会显著提升农业机械化水平的9.94%,水田转入和旱地转入会分别提升农业机械化水平的10.21%和3.71%;土地转出会显著降低农业机械化水平的9.4%,水田转出和旱地转出会分别降低农业机械化水平的9.7%和8.83%。土地规模效益导致土地流入对农业机械化水平的上升效应大于土地转出对农业机械化水平的下降效应,而不同类型耕地作业难度差异会导致水田流转和旱地流转对农业机械化水平的作用效果有所区别。研究结论:提高农业机械使用程度,需要鼓励农户参与土地流转,加快适度规模经营的步伐,继续加大对农机补贴的力度,培育新型职业农民。     

Capital Project Analysis When Cash Flows Evolve as a Continuous Time Branching Process

Optimal capital budgeting criteria now exist for a variety of applications when project cash flows (or present values) evolve in terms of the well-known geometric Brownian motion. However, relatively little is known about the capital budgeting procedures that ought to be implemented when cash flows are generated by stochastic processes other than the geometric Brownian motion. Given this, our purpose here is to develop optimal investment criteria for capital projects with cash flows that evolve in terms of a continuous time branching process. Branching processes are compatible with an empirical phenomenon known as 'volatility smile'. This occurs when there are systematic fluctuations in the implied volatility of a capital project's cash flows as the cash flow grows in magnitude. A number of studies have shown that this phenomenon characterizes the cash flow streams of the capital projects in which firms typically invest. We implement optimal capital budgeting procedures for both the continuous time branching process and the geometric Brownian motion using cost and revenue data for the Stuart oil shale project in central Queensland, Australia. This example shows that significant differences can arise between the optimal investment criteria for cash flows based on a branching process and those based on the geometric Brownian motion. This underscores the need for the geometric Brownian motion broadly to reflect the way a given capital project's cash flows actually evolve if serious errors in valuation and/or capital budgeting decisions are to be avoided.     

Labor tax reform, unemployment, and search

A key obstacle to reducing payroll taxes in many industrialized and transition countries is the direct revenue loss to the government that it implies. This paper studies a simple and practical labor tax reform of reducing a payroll tax and increasing a progressive wage tax that keeps the marginal tax wedge unchanged. Such a strategy increases employment, reduces the equilibrium unemployment rate, and increases public revenue as long as workers do not have all the bargaining power in wage negotiations. Moreover, welfare rises if workers’ bargaining power is sufficiently large to exceed a critical value determined by the second-best Hosios condition.      

农业空间匹配及其经济增长效应研究——以长三角为例

[目的]产业空间匹配是产业发展的重要影响因素,产业发展与区域优势要素相匹配有助于缩小地区间经济水平差距,达到均衡发展状态。[方法]文章从水土资源匹配和产业相对优势匹配两个角度定义了农业空间匹配质量,以长三角为例量化该地区41个地级市的匹配质量,随后采用空间滞后模型对农业空间匹配质量的经济增长效应进行了实证分析。[结果]结果显示农业水土资源匹配度对长三角农业经济增长效应为-0.146 4,空间计量模型的空间滞后影响力为0.27。长三角各地区农业水土资源匹配状况总体趋势上表现出先提高后降低的趋势,2011—2015年达到最大值。[结论]水土资源匹配度对长三角农业经济增长具有显著的负向影响,而相对优势匹配度对农业经济增长的影响不显著。增长模型中体现了空间的适应性,形成了良好的产业空间集聚。科技、劳动力和城市化都是其主要的驱动力,推动着水土资源匹配度在不同时期的变化。