适应居民财产管理理念变化的保险集团资产管理价值链的构建

保险资产管理水平的高低不仅关系到保险集团的利润水平,更关系到保险集团未来的生存与发展。中国居民财富的不断增长和财产管理理念的变化对保险集团资产管理价值链的构建提出了新的要求。保险集团应对中国居民财产管理理念变化的原因进行分析,结合自身资产管理现状,认清其存在的问题,构建适应居民财产管理理念变化的新型保险集团资产管理价值链。     

预算机会主义、预算治理构造和预算审计——国家审计嵌入公共预算的理论架构

各国的国家审计在公共预算中的作用呈现不同特色.沿着预算机会主义、预算治理构造到预算审计这个逻辑路径,建立一个关于国家审计在公共预算中作用的理论架构,并以美国和中国作为案例来验证这个理论构架,具有重要意义.各个国家针对预算机会主义会有一个由预算文化、预算制衡和预算问责组成的预算治理构造,预算审计属于预算问责,预算审计如何嵌入预算治理构造的决定因素是剩余预算机会主义,剩余机会主义决定预算审计体制、预算审计重点和预算审计模式.     

Global indeterminacy in an endogenous-growth model with public capital

This paper studies the patterns of growth in an endogenous-growth model where the labor supply is endogenous and sustained growth arises because the services derived from public capital increase the economic productivity. It is assumed that these services are congested by the number of households in the economy but they are not congested by the units of time that each household devotes to work. With this assumption, the dynamic equilibrium exhibits multiple balanced-growth paths, local and global indeterminacy, and limit cycles under some plausible fiscal policies. Our analysis points out that a large lump-sum tax is a necessary condition to obtain this complex equilibrium dynamic behavior.     

Public-Choice Analysis of a New International Organization: The International Sea-Bed Authority

The usefulness of the public-choice approach for a better understanding of international organizations can be demonstrated by applying it to the analysis of the structure and functions of a new international organization, the International Sea-Bed Authority, established in 1994, after two decades of negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations, with the aim to control the oceans' mineral resources beyond the limits of national jurisdictions (which have been proclaimed by the U.N. Assembly common heritage of mankind). First, the reasons for establishing this organization, whose basis is the common heritage of mankind nature of ocean resources, are examined under two aspects: 1) definition and protection of property rights; 2) environmental control of sea-bed mining activities. Secondly, the organization's decisionmaking system is presented, including such features as the assembly, council with chamber voting, finance committee with decision by consensus, features that balance the voting power of members and protect those countries that bear the financial responsibility for the budget. Finally, some comments are offered about more general aspects of the theory of international organizations: the bureaucracy (and diplomacy) of these organizations as well as the interdependence among international organizations, which opens the way to forms of international logrolling and makes it advisable for countries not to exit from these organizations, even when they have no primary interest in them.     

The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital

The cost of public investment is not the increment to the value ofpublic capital. Unlike with private investors, there is no plausiblebehavioral model in which every dollar that the public sectorspends as ``investment' creates economically valuable ``capital.'While this simple analytic point is obvious, it has so far beenuniformly ignored in the empirical literature on economic growth,which uses—at best—cumulated, depreciated, investmenteffort (CUDIE) as a proxy for capital stocks. However, particularlyfor developing countries the difference between investment costand capital value is of first-order empirical importance: governmentinvestment is half of more of total investment, and calculationspresented here suggest that in many countries government investmentspending has created little useful capital. This has implicationsin three broad areas. First, none of the existing empirical estimatesof the impact of public spending has identified the productivityof public capital. Even where public capital has a potentiallylarge contribution to production, public-investment spendingmay have had a low impact. Second, it implies that all estimatesof total factor productivity in developing countries are deeplysuspect as there is no way to empirically distinguish betweenlow growth because of investments that create no factors andlow growth due to slow productivity growth. Third, multivariateregressions to date have not adequately controlled for capitalstock growth, which leads to erroneous interpretations of regressioncoefficients.     

公募基金内部羊群行为研究

以往对公募基金羊群行为的研究聚焦于宏观层面不同基金公司所持股票组合的相似性,而该研究则从微观视角研究了羊群行为:(1)单个公募基金公司所管理的多个基金相互模仿投资策略所呈现的羊群行为;(2)基金经理的交易行为所呈现的羊群行为。使用LSV模型测量2010—2019年多个公募基金公司内部的羊群行为,发现同个公募基金公司所管理的多个不同基金存在相互模仿投资策略的羊群行为,程度高于宏观层面不同公募基金之间相互模仿的羊群行为。此外,还发现基金经理的买入卖出交易行为存在羊群效应。研究从新的视角检验了微观层面的羊群行为,为基金公司加强内部管理、避免基金经理跟风投资造成风险聚集提供参考。     

Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model

We propose an Attention-LSTM neural network model to study the systemic risk early warning of China. Based on text mining, the network public opinion index is constructed and used as a training set to be incorporated into the early warning model to test the early warning effect. The results show that: (i) the network public opinion is the non-linear Granger causality of systemic risk. (ii) The Attention-LSTM neural network has strong generalization ability. Early warning effects have been significantly improved. (iii) Compared with the BP neural network model, the SVR model and the ARIMA model, the LSTM neural network early warning model has a higher accuracy rate, and its average prediction accuracy for systemic risk indicators has been improved over short, medium and long terms. When the attention mechanism is included in the LSTM, the Attention-LSTM neural network model is even more accurate in all the cases.     

探索城市规划项目开发审批过程中的公众参与

随着我国经济的快速发展,国家越来越重视城市规划项目开发审批过程。为了提升城市规划项目中的公众参与,可将其作为正式制度纳入城市规划工作程序中,促进编制的科学化与民主化,积极引导各级群众的参与,实现真正的公众参与。     

突发公共卫生事件的 应急医疗资源配置研究——基于网格化管理和大数据平台

应急医疗资源是应对突发公共卫生事件最重要的物质基础和保障。在对前人研究进行总结的基础上,分析了目前我国在突发公共卫生事件时应急医疗资源调配机制的不足和网格化管理应用到资源配置中的可行性和优越性,以此将大数据平台和网格化管理模式引入到应急医疗资源的配置研究中。在对应急医疗资源的配置过程进行网格化模型设计的基础上,根据我国应急医疗资源配置的需要和特点,确定了网格系统中的基本单元,即网格划分,并选择五层沙漏模型作为突发公共卫生事件时应急医疗资源配置的网格模型架构,以期完善我国的应急资源管理体系,进一步提高我国在突发公共卫生事件时应急医疗资源的调配和管理水平。     

当前基层公共卫生机构应急管理若干问题的思考

面对新冠肺炎疫情,基层公共卫生机构发挥了十分重要的作用,但同时暴露出了一些不足。论文总结了我国基层公共卫生机构应急管理存在的问题,提出从四个方面着力完善基层公共卫生应急管理制度体系,同时,要加强对信息系统的应用及人才的培养和引进,以提升基层卫生应急机制的敏感性、反应性。