Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment

This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.     

Cost-efficacy analysis of biological treatments in psoriasis: an 18-month assessment

Summary

This study compared the cost-efficacy of the following approved biological treatment strategies for plaque psoriasis over 18 months: (1) alefacept 15 mg intramuscularly weekly for two 12-week courses; (2) efalizumab 1 mg/kg subcutaneously (SC) weekly; and (3) etanercept 50 mg SC twice weekly for 12 weeks followed by a maintenance dose of 50 mg weekly. Direct utilisation-related costs included drug costs, office fees, injection fees and costs incurred due to adverse events and laboratory monitoring. Efficacy was based on response rates from large-scale clinical trials. At 18 months, total utilisation-related costs for alefacept, efalizumab and etanercept were $26,667, $33,365 and $32,962, respectively. Cost-efficacy, calculated using the corresponding response rates for the three therapies, was comparable ($66,669, $75,828 and $61,041, respectively). Thus, for patients with moderate to severe psoriasis who have responded to therapy, two 12-week courses of alefacept 7 months apart, or weekly maintenance treatment with efalizumab or etanercept, resulted in comparable total cost-efficacy.     

The impact of production offshoring on the skill composition of manufacturing firms: evidence from Italy

In this work we explore how the international outsourcing of production impacts the skill composition of employment within Italian manufacturing firms. In particular, our aim is to assess whether the choice to offshore production activities to cheap‐labour countries implies a bias in the employment of skilled workers relative to unskilled ones.

Using a balanced panel of firms covering the period 1995–2003, we set up a counterfactual analysis in which, by using a difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching estimator, we compare the dynamics of skill demand for treated and control firms while addressing the possible problem of selection bias.

Our results identify a ‘potential’ skill bias effect of production offshoring. In particular, we find that treated firms tend to show an upward shift in the skill ratio with respect to the counterfactual sample, but coefficients are not significantly different from zero. When we look at the elements of the skill ratio separately, we find that the skill bias is driven by a fall in the employment of production workers (blue collars), rather than by the increase in the employment of non‐production workers (white collars), thus providing further evidence on the unskilled labour‐saving nature of international outsourcing.     

Who votes for public environmental goods in California?: Evidence from a spatial analysis of voting for environmental ballot measures

Voting referenda provide direct evidence of the demand for public goods. A number of previous studies have used referenda to analyze the support for public environmental goods. These studies have used aggregate data from large jurisdictional units (usually counties) and summary income measures such as the mean or median, and have usually found that higher income areas offer greater support for environmental propositions. We examine environmental referenda voting in California using census block group data, spatial dependence controls, and detailed income distribution data. We find that household income has a negative marginal effect on environmental referenda voting for most of the income range when using census block data. In addition, controls for spatial dependence significantly reduce the magnitude of most coefficients. This suggests that OLS estimates of referenda determinants are biased. We also show that county level data may be subject to severe aggregation bias and might not be appropriate for referenda studies.     

Assessing cross-cultural marketing theory and research: A commentary essay

Cross-cultural research (CCR) is extremely important for advancing understanding of the range and limits of theoretical constructs and frameworks across different cultural contexts. CCR also provides an important understanding of the differences between countries and cultures. This commentary essay examines the review conducted by Engelen and Brettel (2010) and comments on shortcomings, as well as identifying areas where more needs to be done. A critical first step is to properly define the unit of analysis. This step is particularly critical as the concept of “national culture” is becoming increasingly less relevant and the appropriate culture unit for examination is often a smaller, more homogeneous grouping within a given geographic location. This view allows more meaningful inferences to be made and controls for possible contextual confounds, as well as providing a richer understanding of the limits of national culture in an increasingly global economy.     

数字偏好与股票收益异常——来自上海证券交易所的经验证据

本文研究股票代码对股票收益的影响。研究发现,由于数字偏好效应的存在,投资者刻意回避代码以“4”结尾的股票。在较长时间内,尾数是“4”的股票收益低于给定风险水平下的市场必要收益。但这一现象受到股市行情的影响,牛市行情时,投资者回避“4”的行为表现明显,而熊市行情时则会趋向消失。具体表现为：牛市行情下,“4”组合的资产收益小于给定风险水平下的市场必要收益,熊市行情则无此现象。本文从行为金融莹晶当磨时杖一仑蜃由市扬耳夔讲符T觎崧     

归因偏差视角下旅游行为失范成因研究

游客旅游行为失范时有发生,威胁着旅游资源与环境安全。心理归因影响个体行为逻辑,归因偏差是解释心理归因的经典理论。本文引入归因偏差理论,采用实证方法探究旅游行为失范背后的归因偏差因素,为减少旅游行为失范提供心理学依据。研究发现,归因偏差能够引致旅游者心理认知偏差,后者直接引发和助推旅游行为失范。心理环境和群体心理对引致旅游者的心理认知偏差和行为失范具有显著作用,归因偏差成为旅游者弱化旅游行为失范结果的心理屏障,可激发或促进旅游行为失范的发生或持续。研究认为旅游地可从完善硬件监控、控制游客流量、强化失范行为负面教育、发挥在场监督作用等方式削弱归因偏差效应。     

Utilizing environmental information and pricing strategies to reduce externalities of tourism: the case of invasive species in the Galapagos

The increase in demand for nature-based tourism brings economic and educational benefits but risks the introduction of invasive species. Increasing the length of tourist trips can better balance these benefits and risks by maintaining revenues while reducing the number of unique contacts with tourists. Changing the relative prices of trips can induce tourists to take longer trips. We hypothesized that providing information about the negative externalities of tourism could improve the effectiveness of such pricing strategies.

We administered one of two discrete choice surveys to tourists considering a trip to the Galapagos. One of the surveys described the Galapagos as a fragile ecosystem susceptible to invasive species; the second described it as a standard nature-based destination. For each sample, we estimated the probability of the tourist choosing a short versus long trip, given the tourist's personal information and trip options presented to him. We then simulated the demand for trips using three pricing strategies. We found that providing information on invasive species significantly increased the efficacy of strategic pricing. We propose using a two-prong approach to tourism management: educate potential tourists about the islands’ vulnerabilities, and simultaneously increase the per-day cost of short trips relative to that of longer trips.     

新闻基本偏向：当前市场经济语境下劣质报道分析——再论商务传播

本文借鉴美国学者富勒的"新闻报道基本偏向"的观点,对当下中国市场经济语境下劣质新闻报道的现象进行了类型分析、成因探究,指出了当前市场经济转型过程中相关法律约束与道德规范的缺失与劣质新闻中基本偏向趋势存在正相关的因果关系.     

Assessing the Impact of the ‘Decoupling’ Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Irish Farmers’ Off‐farm Labour Market Participation Decisions

This paper assesses the impact of the ‘decoupling’ reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on the labour allocation decisions of Irish farmers. The agricultural household decision‐making model provides the conceptual and theoretical framework to examine the interaction between government subsidies and farmers’ time allocation decisions. The relationship postulated is that ‘decoupling’ of agricultural support from production would probably result in a decline in the return to farm labour but it would also lead to an increase in household wealth. The effect of these factors on how farmers allocate their time is tested empirically using labour participation and labour supply models. The models developed are sufficiently general for application elsewhere. The main findings for the Irish situation are that the decoupling of direct payments is likely to increase the probability of farmers participating in the off‐farm employment market and that the amount of time allocated to off‐farm work will increase.