Test for the real option in consumer behavior

Consumers become indecisive when facing too many choices. Economic analysis suggests that when a decision involves uncertain outcome, can be delayed and is irreversible, there will be a real option in the cost–benefit analysis. For example, the option to keep alive a consumer's purchasing decision has a significant value. It allows the consumer to take advantage of any future advantageous deals while avoiding the bad choices. This renders the consumer more hesitant. When a consumer decides to exercise his buying decision, he demands a compensation for the loss of this option. Hence, the benefits of a purchase must be over and above its costs by a wide margin (the option value). Data from a survey at a Turkish university on hypothetical purchase decisions confirmed the existence of this real option. We conclude with marketing policy recommendations and future research directions. Connection to the Prospect Theory is briefly explored.Note: Although the 3rd person singular pronoun he/his was used throughout to describe the consumer, he was intended to be gender-neutral.     

我国股票期权企业所得税税收政策研究

2005年财政部、国家税务总局发布了《关于个人股票期权所得征收个人所得税问题的通知》(财税〔2005〕35号),首次明确了要对员工取得的股票期权收入征收个人所得税。但对于企业所得税方面的规定目前还是空白,需要尽快出台与股票期权激励计划有关的企业所得税方面的政策,以促进其发展。本文首先介绍我国的股票期权税收政策;其次对股票期权涉及的企业所得税方面的问题进行了探讨;最后对我国在制定股票期权企业所得税政策时须注意的问题提出了建议。     

PRICING CHAINED OPTIONS WITH CURVED BARRIERS

This paper studies barrier options which are chained together, each with payoff contingent on curved barriers. When the underlying asset price hits a primary curved barrier, a secondary barrier option is given to a primary barrier option holder. Then if the asset price hits another curved barrier, a third barrier option is given, and so on. We provide explicit price formulas for these options when two or more barrier options with exponential barriers are chained together. We then extend the results to the options with general curved barriers.     

基于实物期权的延迟策略CODP投资决策分析研究

制造企业实施延迟策略的目的是为了塑造柔性的竞争优势。以过程自由度和过程知识量为维度，分析了延迟策略实施过程中客户订单分离点（CODP）存在的可能性，针对延迟策略CODP定位的特点，利用实物期权的思想，划分了延迟策略实施过程中存在的期权种类，构建了基于延迟期权的CODP投资决策模型，研究结果为实施延迟策略的制造企业定制时机提供了理论指导。     

The Differential Value Relevance of S&P's Core Earnings Versus GAAP Earnings: The Role of Stock Option Expense

In 2002, Standard & Poor's (S&P) introduced Core Earnings as a proprietary, uniform earnings metric, with the goal of improving financial reporting. The distinguishing feature of Core Earnings is its consistent treatment of seven adjustments to GAAP earnings for which there is no consensus adjustment by managers and analysts. We use stock price and return data to assess whether investors perceive Core Earnings to be more value relevant than GAAP earnings. The implementation of FASB 123R changed the calculation of GAAP and Core Earnings. This change allows us to assess the role of stock option expense in the valuation of earnings numbers by partitioning the sample into pre‐ and post‐FASB 123R periods and creating consistent measures of GAAP and Core Earnings. Our price results indicate that Core Earnings is more value relevant than GAAP earnings in the pre‐period after controlling for stock option expense, and in the post‐FASB 123R periods. The price results provide empirical evidence consistent with S&P's expectation that a uniformly calculated earnings measure is a more consistent and useful indicator of current performance and future earnings.     

CONSTANT PROPORTION PORTFOLIO INSURANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF JUMPS IN ASSET PRICES

Constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) allows an investor to limit downside risk while retaining some upside potential by maintaining an exposure to risky assets equal to a constant multiple of the cushion , the difference between the current portfolio value and the guaranteed amount. Whereas in diffusion models with continuous trading, this strategy has no downside risk, in real markets this risk is nonnegligible and grows with the multiplier value. We study the behavior of CPPI strategies in models where the price of the underlying portfolio may experience downward jumps. Our framework leads to analytically tractable expressions for the probability of hitting the floor, the expected loss, and the distribution of losses. This allows to measure the gap risk but also leads to a criterion for adjusting the multiplier based on the investor's risk aversion. Finally, we study the problem of hedging the downside risk of a CPPI strategy using options. The results are applied to a jump-diffusion model with parameters estimated from returns series of various assets and indices.     

不同重量铅球最后用力阶段的运动学分析

为探明不同运动员在不同重量铅球技术上的共同变化趋势,不同重量铅球对运动员的投掷技术可能产生的影响,以及这些变化趋势对铅球专项力量、专项技术训练的启示,对8名运动员进行了不同重量铅球的滑步投掷技术的运动学实验分析。研究结果表明:不同重量铅球滑步动作技术最后用力阶段的出手速度、角度、高度等方面指标有明显的差异。     

HEDGING STRATEGIES AND MINIMAL VARIANCE PORTFOLIOS FOR EUROPEAN AND EXOTIC OPTIONS IN A LÉVY MARKET

This paper presents hedging strategies for European and exotic options in a Lévy market. By applying Taylor’s theorem, dynamic hedging portfolios are constructed under different market assumptions, such as the existence of power jump assets or moment swaps. In the case of European options or baskets of European options, static hedging is implemented. It is shown that perfect hedging can be achieved. Delta and gamma hedging strategies are extended to higher moment hedging by investing in other traded derivatives depending on the same underlying asset. This development is of practical importance as such other derivatives might be readily available. Moment swaps or power jump assets are not typically liquidly traded. It is shown how minimal variance portfolios can be used to hedge the higher order terms in a Taylor expansion of the pricing function, investing only in a risk‐free bank account, the underlying asset, and potentially variance swaps. The numerical algorithms and performance of the hedging strategies are presented, showing the practical utility of the derived results.     

BLACK–SCHOLES REPRESENTATION FOR ASIAN OPTIONS

Asian options are securities with a payoff that depends on the average of the underlying stock price over a certain time interval. We identify three natural assets that appear in pricing of the Asian options, namely a stock S, a zero coupon bond B^T with maturity T, and an abstract asset A (an “average asset”) that pays off a weighted average of the stock price number of units of a dollar at time T. It turns out that each of these assets has its own martingale measure, allowing us to obtain Black–Scholes type formulas for the fixed strike and the floating strike Asian options. The model independent formulas are analogous to the Black–Scholes formula for the plain vanilla options; they are expressed in terms of probabilities under the corresponding martingale measures that the Asian option will end up in the money. Computation of these probabilities is relevant for hedging. In contrast to the plain vanilla options, the probabilities for the Asian options do not admit a simple closed form solution. However, we show that it is possible to obtain the numerical values in the geometric Brownian motion model efficiently, either by solving a partial differential equation numerically, or by computing the Laplace transform. Models with stochastic volatility or pure jump models can be also priced within the Black–Scholes framework for the Asian options.