FOREIGN AID,TERRORISM AND GROWTH: CONDITIONAL EVIDENCE FROM QUANTILE REGRESSION

In this study, we investigate the role of development assistance in reducing a hypothetically negative impact of terrorism on economic growth, using a panel of 78 developing nations with data for the period 1984–2008. The empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions. Domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics are employed while development assistance measurements comprised bilateral and multilateral aid variables. With regard to the investigated hypothesis, we consistently confirm that: (i) In quantiles where terrorism is found to increase (decrease) economic growth, its interaction with foreign aid decreases (increases) economic growth. (ii) Comparing thresholds of the modifying aid variables for which the hypothesis is either rejected or accepted reveals that higher levels of multilateral (bilateral) aid are needed to reverse the negative effect of total (unclear) terrorism on growth, than the quantity needed to reverse the positive impact of transnational (domestic and total) terrorism(s) on growth. (iii) There is scant evidence of positive net effects. Overall the findings broadly indicate that foreign aid is a necessary but not a sufficient policy tool for completely dampening the effects of terrorism on economic growth.     

农业保险保费补贴政策的减贫效应及其区域异质性

利用FGT贫困指数作为被解释变量,结合我国30个省份的2010-2018年农业保险保费财政补贴数据,构建面板分位数回归模型检验我国对农业保险保费财政补贴的减贫效应的异质性,并分东、中和西部进行了稳健性检验.研究表明,在经济发展水平低的地区,农业保险保费财政补贴具有显著的减贫效应,但经济发展水平不同的地区存在减贫效应的区域异质性:随着贫困程度加深(分位点增高),农业保险保费补贴的扶贫效应先增加后降低.农业保险保费财政补贴每提高1％,FGT贫困指数下降的范围为0.045％～0.15％.     

Evolution of Urban–rural Living Standards Inequality in Thailand: 1990–2006

The present study examines the developments in urban–rural living standard inequality in Thailand from 1990 to 2006 using a methodology that allows for the identification of individual contributors to changes in inequality. We also propose a method to analyze the changes over time in urban–rural living standards. We find that the urban–rural gap in living standards in Thailand has narrowed substantially since the early 1990s, both at the mean and especially for households in the upper part of the expenditure distribution; however, the narrowing of the gap at the bottom of the expenditure distribution has been negligible. The study also identifies the main individual contributors to changes over time in living standards between urban and rural areas in Thailand.     

A simple two-component model for the distribution of intraday returns

We model the conditional distribution of high-frequency financial returns by means of a two-component quantile regression model. Using three years of 30 minute returns, we show that the conditional distribution depends on past returns and on the time of the day. Two practical applications illustrate the usefulness of the model. First, we provide quantile-based measures of conditional volatility, asymmetry and kurtosis that do not depend on the existence of moments. We find seasonal patterns and time dependencies beyond volatility. Second, we estimate and forecast intraday Value at Risk. The two-component model is able to provide good-risk assessments and to outperform GARCH-based Value at Risk evaluations.     

The Relation Between Relative Order Imbalance and Intraday Futures Returns: An Application of the Quantile Regression Model to Taiwan

Adopting the quantile regression model, this paper describes the positive relation between relative order imbalance and intraday futures returns. The positive connection is relatively stronger for lower quantiles of intraday futures returns than for higher quantiles. However, the connection vanishes within 30 minutes. The results reflect the compensation of the uncertainty and the absence of liquidity for relatively lower returns in the Taiwan futures market. Furthermore, this paper finds evidence supporting an L-shaped pattern for intraday futures returns.     

上市公司价值创造能力异质性 ——基于二元选择分位数回归模型的研究

为解释公司价值创造能力异质性表现,建立二元选择模型,分别采用均值回归与分位数回归两个分析方法,讨论了所有制性质、股权制衡度、公司规模等对上市公司价值创造能力的异质影响方式。一方面,通过分位回归系数,揭示其异质影响模式;另一方面,通过概率水平预测,揭示其异质影响程度。本文以中国A股上市公司2009-2011年三个年度数据作为研究对象进行实证研究,取得了稳健的实证结果。结果表明：这三类因素都显著影响公司价值创造能力,但影响方式呈现出异质性,表现为在价值创造能力的上尾部与下尾部都有较大的回归系数,意味着需要特别关注那些价值创造能力层次较高和较低的公司,可以采取“抓两头,促中间”的公司治理策略;各因素对公司价值创造为正的可能性影响程度表现为“折线型、台阶式”,意味着只有当各因素取值累积到一定程度时,该可能性才会发生变化,而这一变化对公司规模最为敏感,表明要想实现价值创造能力的提升,公司需要进行各因素的积累与准备。     

城市基础设施与异质性企业生产效率:基于分位数回归的分析

本文在对2002~2007年中国工业企业数据和城市基础设施数据匹配基础上,分位数回归研究表明:道路和电信基础设施对于企业效率影响为负,中等教育基础设施对企业具有正向作用,而高等教育基础设施仅对中等效率企业具有正向影响,医疗基础设施仅对高效率企业具有正向促进作用。此外,按企业所有制分类的稳健性检验发现:道路、电信、教育和医疗基础设施对不同性质和不同效率水平的企业生产效率的促进作用存在较大差异。本文的政策含义是,加强民生基础设施的投资、优化基础设施投资结构有助于企业效率的提升,且企业自身效率的提升和企业所有制结构的改善也有助于提升城市基础设施的边际促进作用。     

On the Autocorrelation of Growth Rates

This paper studies the serial autocorrelation of annual growth rates in employment for selected Austrian service industries over a 30-year period using quantile regression techniques. The autocorrelation of growth rates provides important information on firms growth processes. We find that the growth patterns of micro firms are strikingly different from the growth patterns of small, medium-sized and larger firms. First, we do find a positive dependency of growth on size for growing micro firms, while this relationship is negative for the other size groups. Second, growing micro firms are subject to negative autocorrelation of annual growth rates making sustained growth a very rate occurrence, while larger growing firms usually display a positive autocorrelation suggesting that high growth episodes of larger firms stretch over a longer time horizon. This indicates that the growth of micro firms in particular is characterized by a rather lumpy growth profile. Furthermore, we find that the autocorrelation patterns are asymmetric with regard to decline and growth.     

Asymmetric effects of shocks on TFP

We study the TFP distribution and examine the non-stationarity of productivity series at various quantiles. Using the quantile autoregression unit root test, we find that the US TFP exhibits an asymmetric adjustment dynamics, that is, positive and negative shocks might have different (permanent or temporary) effects on the TFP. Shocks dissemination depends on the local behaviour of the TFP. We find that positive shocks have permanent effects on the TFP, while negative shocks can potentially have only transitory effects.     

Product innovation and employment growth at the firm level: a quantile regression approach to inter-industry differences

This article demonstrates that the relationship between product innovativeness and employment growth at the firm level depends on (i) market responses to innovations with different degrees of novelty, (ii) the location of firms on the growth distribution and (iii) industry conditions. As a result, research that uses standard regression techniques such as OLS and does not account for innovation characteristics and industry differences fail to properly describe this relationship