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271.
近年来,如何调整财政支出方向从而有效刺激消费成为中国面临的一大挑战。从理论和实证两方面可以探究政府财政支出对消费的影响,进而以消费为指标为政府财政支出提供明确方向。理论研究表明,政府生产性财政支出对促进消费增长具有积极影响,宏观税率与消费增长呈倒U型关系。根据理论研究结果,利用2006—2015年的数据,使用面板分位数回归模型可以研究生产性财政支出对消费的影响。结果显示,在20%分位点上,生产性财政支出对居民消费具有显著正影响,而在50%和80%点处不具有显著影响,即政府生产性财政支出能够促进贫困地区居民消费,对中等收入地区和富裕地区的促进作用不明显。因此,政府财政支出的主要方向为贫困地区。 相似文献
272.
In this paper, we estimate the effect of different macro and micro variables on the distribution of unemployment duration in West Germany using censored quantile regressions. We analyze unemployment periods of more than 91,000 observations from the years 1981 to 1997 drawn from the IAB employment subsample. The latter is an administrative data set that is representative with respect to the socially insured workforce. Surprisingly, we find that the educational degree and variables indicating the macroeconomic environment such as the unemployment rate have a weak effect only. On the other hand, variables reflecting the (un-)employment history of an individual such as the length of tenure, recall to the same employer in the past, recent unemployment, and the position in the population income distribution before unemployment have the strongest effects on unemployment duration. We conclude that work history variables are the ones most suitable in characterizing the unemployment duration of an individual. From a methodological point of view, it is interesting that some regression coefficients have a different sign depending on the quantiles of the unemployment duration distribution. This clearly is a violation of the classical proportional hazard assumption which is very common in unemployment duration analysis. 相似文献
273.
274.
US Fiscal Sustainability and the Causality Relationship between Government Expenditures and Revenues: A New Approach Based on Quantile Cointegration 下载免费PDF全文
Pei‐Fen Chen 《Fiscal Studies》2016,37(2):301-320
This paper first aims to reinvestigate the issue of US fiscal sustainability by using the quantile cointegration approach proposed by Xiao (2009 and 2012). Our empirical evidence indicates a quantile‐dependent cointegrating relationship between government expenditures and revenues. In addition, this paper examines the long‐run causality relationship between expenditures and revenues by using the vector error‐correction (VEC) model with coefficients based on the different quantiles. Findings from the long‐run Granger‐causality analyses support the spend‐and‐tax hypothesis. Our investigation suggests that the government should show more discretion in increasing expenditures in the long run. Moreover, budget deficit reduction can only be achieved through reductions in government expenditures. 相似文献
275.
276.
In this article, we examine sustainable investments returns predictability based on the U.S. Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) and a wide set of uncertainty and financial distress indicators for the period 2002:01–2014:12. To this end, we employ a novel non-parametric causality-in-quantile approach that captures non-linearities in returns distribution. Based on our findings we conclude that the aggregate economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indicator and some components have predictive ability for real returns of the U.S. sustainable investments index. Moreover, if we split our sample to before and after the global financial crisis our results suggest that predictors carry causal information for real returns only in the after-crisis period. Finally, some marginal evidence of predictability from sovereign debt is also observed at the lower and upper ends of the conditional distribution of the real returns of sustainable investments. Our results might entail policy implications for investors and market authorities. 相似文献
277.
This article studies the real interest rate parity (RIP) for several Asian countries. This is done by examining the stationarity in the real interest rate differentials (rids) with respect to the US using the quantile unit root test. Our results show that rids exhibits unit-root behaviours in the lower quantile levels, and mean reversion in the upper quantile levels. Furthermore, large positive shocks tend to induce strong mean reversion and the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium level is faster as rids gets larger, with shorter half-lives in the extreme quantile levels. 相似文献
278.
This article sheds light on the differences in the mechanisms generating intergenerational inequality in the four largest Euro Area economies (Spain, Italy, Germany and France) looking at the association between parental background and sons’ earnings along the sons’ distribution. We find that in all countries returns to parental background increase along the sons’ earnings distribution and the probability of ending up in high deciles is significantly correlated with parental background. However, although these findings lend support to the existence of a common mechanism, substantial differences in returns’ steepness question the one-pattern-fits-all story. 相似文献
279.
The absolute health income hypothesis revisited: a semiparametric quantile regression approach 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper uses the 1998–1999 Canadian National Population Health Survey data to examine the health–income relationship that
underlies the absolute income hypothesis. To allow for nonlinearity and data heterogeneity, we use a partially linear semiparametric
quantile regression model. The “absolute income hypothesis” is partially true; the negative aging effects appear more pronounced
for the ill-healthy population than for the healthy population and when annual income is below 40,000 Canadian dollars.
We would like to thank two anonymous referees and Baldev Raj, the editor, for useful and constructive comments and suggestions.
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Statistics Canada.
Both authors would also like to acknowledge financial support from SSHRC of Canada. 相似文献
280.
行业属性对劳动报酬的边际效应及其细部特征——基于分位数回归模型的实证研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
目前学术界普遍使用的基于最小二乘法的传统线性回归方法不但不能分析行业属性对劳动报酬边际效应的细部特征,而且行业劳动报酬分布具有的非正态分布特征还会严重影响模型的估计结果,误导分析结论,而现代计量经济学中的分位数回归模型可以有效地解决上述问题.文章使用分位数回归模型方法对影响劳动报酬的行业属性变量进行了选择,测算了有关行业属性变量在不同部门、不同分位点上对劳动报酬的边际效应,分析了边际效应的细部特征与变化规律. 相似文献