中国省会城市工资溢价研究——基于分位数回归的空间计量分析

文章利用2000-2006年中国营养与健康调查数据,从微观层面对中国省会与非省会城市之间的工资溢价效应进行研究.借助OLS基准模型发现,具有相似特征的工人,在省会城市工作获得的工资比在非省会城市平均高出14%.运用MundlakChamberlain随机效应模型,控制城市的生活成本,上述省会城市的工资溢价至少减少至7%,因此省会城市的工资溢价部分体现为对较高水平人力资本的回报.余下的工资溢价随着模型加入通勤时间而消失,这一结果和城市经济学空间均衡理论的预测相一致,并确定了省会城市聚集经济效应的存在.考虑到我国近年来工资收入差距的扩大,文章将研究扩展到工资分位数的研究,处于较高工资区间的工人明显享受到更多省会城市带来的优势.这些结果突出了城市劳动力市场微观层面研究的重要性.     

Public Preferences for Hydrogen Buses: Comparing Interval Data, OLS and Quantile Regression Approaches

We use a quantile regression (QR) approach to analyse contingent valuation estimates of public willingness to pay (WTP) for the air and noise pollution reductions associated with the introduction of hydrogen buses in London. QR results show that variables that were not significant in interval regression or ordinary least squares regression become significant at certain quantiles along the WTP distribution. In addition, the determinants of WTP at the lower tail of the distribution differ from those at the higher end of the distribution. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of quantile regression methods for analysing contingent valuation data, enhancing our understanding of the determinants of willingness to pay.     

Bank Liability Structure,FDIC Loss,and Time to Failure: A Quantile Regression Approach

Deposit insurers are particularly concerned about high-cost failures. When the factors driving such failures differ systematically from the determinants of low- and moderate-cost failures, a new estimation technique is required. Using a sample of more than 1,000 bank failures in the U.S. between 1984 and 2003, I present a quantile regression approach that illustrates the sensitivity of the dollar value of losses in different quantiles to my explanatory variables. These findings suggest that reliance on standard econometric techniques results in misleading inferences, and that losses are not homogeneously driven by the same factors across the quantiles. I also find that liability composition affects time to failure.

Regional Disparity in the Body Mass Index Distribution of Indonesians: New Evidence Beyond The Mean

This article studies the differentials in body mass index (BMI) across the distribution of Indonesian people in urban and rural regions, using the latest wave of the Indonesia Family Life Survey. Besides the mean difference decomposition, this study implements a quantile decomposition analysis and decomposes the differentials between rural and urban populations at various quantile points of the distributions. This study offers new evidence of the substantial heterogeneity of their determinants and their impacts across the distribution, which has been overlooked in the literature. Physical activities explain the distributional differentials across the distribution for men and women, and their relative contribution sizes are larger at the higher quantiles. The significance of the structural effect of food expenditure and choices is observed at the middle and higher quantile points of the female distribution. This article shows the importance of analysing distributional differences by elucidating the heterogeneity of the effects of determinants.     

Coherent Measures of Risk

In this paper we study both market risks and nonmarket risks, without complete markets assumption, and discuss methods of measurement of these risks. We present and justify a set of four desirable properties for measures of risk, and call the measures satisfying these properties "coherent." We examine the measures of risk provided and the related actions required by SPAN, by the SEC/NASD rules, and by quantile-based methods. We demonstrate the universality of scenario-based methods for providing coherent measures. We offer suggestions concerning the SEC method. We also suggest a method to repair the failure of subadditivity of quantile-based methods.     

中国期货市场与股票市场量价关系比较——基于分位回归法的研究

运用分位回归方法分别对连豆期货与上证指数各自的量价关系进行准确刻画,并检验了各自量价关系的对称性。实证结果表明,连豆期货具有关于零收益率对称的"V"型量价关系,上证股指具有关于零收益率非对称的"V"型量价关系。缺乏做空机制是导致量价关系非对称的原因。中国股市含有一定的非理性成份,建议引入做空机制。     

利率对汇率变化反应了吗?——基于开放经济下泰勒规则的分位数回归

将基准利率区分为市场基准利率与法定基准利率,并对开放经济下的泰勒规则用分位数回归方法进行实证检验。研究结果表明:不同基准利率对预期通货膨胀率反应显著,且与封闭经济相反,表现为一种稳定的反馈机制,对预期人民币实际有效汇率变动的反应只在个别分位点显著而总体不显著;而对预期产出缺口的反应在两种基准利率下有所不同,在市场基准利率时不显著,在法定基准利率时显著。因此,市场基准利率主要根据预期通货膨胀率进行调整,而法定基准利率则根据预期通货膨胀率与预期产出缺口进行制定,这符合"保持货币币值稳定,并以此促进经济增长"的货币政策目标。     

The impacts of population and agglomeration development on land use intensity: New evidence behind urbanization in China

The impacts of population growth and agglomeration development on urbanization are complex. They cannot be effectively disentangled by simple fixed-effect regression analyses. This study introduces the land use intensity (LUI) metric to measure urbanization, and further applies quantile and threshold regression models to examine the impacts of population (POP) and agglomeration development (AGD) on land use intensity using a sample of 297 Chinese cities. The results reveal the heterogeneous effects that POP and AGD have on LUI. Variation is also observed in the effects of POP and AGD on LUI by POP/AGD intervals. As POP increases, its pressure on LUI increases. In contrast, the accumulative effects of development are beneficial in restraining overdevelopment of land resources within a specific range. The findings suggest that understanding complex human and development effects provides valuable insights, references, and implications for urban development and land use policies, which can guide cities with greater potential land development space in reducing the risk of unsustainable urbanization. Policies are recommended for ecological construction, city grouping, and sustainable land use.     

高新技术企业认定政策对企业创新的激励效应——基于河北省高新技术企业的实证研究

国家“十四五”规划将创新确定为现代化全局建设的核心地位,而高新技术企业认定是政府激励企业创新的重要政策,但该政策是否达到预期效果尚需要实证检验。因此,以河北省高新技术企业为样本,使用分位数回归和门限回归重点研究高新技术企业认定对企业创新的激励效应。研究结果表明：高新技术企业认定政策可以通过税收减免、现金奖励和政治背书等途径显著激励企业的创新积极性;对创新投入水平较低企业的创新积极性影响更显著;相较于大规模企业,该政策更能促进中小规模企业的创新。     

科技经济融合视阈下创新力影响因素研究——基于分位数和复合分位数变量选择方法

第四次工业革命是数字化、网络化和智能化的深度融合。在此背景下,科技与经济间的深度融合成为创新力的重要决定因素。对于不同的经济体,筛选不同分位数水平以及复合分位数水平下影响创新力的关键因素,并分析这些因素的影响程度,对于发现创新力发展优势和短板,具有一定意义。本文以分位数回归和复合分位数回归为基础模型,构建科技经济融合创新力模型,以从科技经济视角,研究不同分位数水平以及复合分位数水平下创新力的重要影响因素,以期为政府及相关部门提供决策参考。研究表明,经济状况方面的因素对创新力影响最大;科学基础中的知识转移是影响创新力的重要因素。