On estimating the reliability after sequentially estimating the mean: The exponential case

Sequential estimation problems for the mean parameter of an exponential distribution has received much attention over the years. Purely sequential and accelerated sequential estimators and their asymptotic second-order characteristics have been laid out in the existing literature, both for minimum risk point as well as bounded length confidence interval estimation of the mean parameter. Having obtained a data set from such sequentially designed experiments, the paper investigates estimation problems for the associatedreliability function. Second-order approximations are provided for the bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator of the reliability function, first under a general setup. An ad hoc bias-corrected version is also introduced. Then, the proposed estimator is investigated further under some specific sequential sampling strategies, already available in the literature. In the end, simulation results are presented for comparing the proposed estimators of the reliability function for moderate sample sizes and various sequential sampling strategies.     

Three Corrected Score Tests for Generalized Linear Models with Dispersion Covariates

We develop three corrected score tests for generalized linear models with dispersion covariates, thus generalizing the results of Cordeiro , Ferrari and Paula (1993) and Cribari-Neto and Ferrari (1995) . We present, in matrix notation, general formulae for the coefficients which define the corrected statistics. The formulae only require simple operations on matrices and can be used to obtain analytically closed-form corrections for score test statistics in a variety of special generalized linear models with dispersion covariates. They also have advantages for numerical purposes since our formulae are readily computable using a language supporting numerical linear algebra. Two examples, namely, iid sampling without covariates on the mean or dispersion parameter oand one-way classification models, are given. We also present some simulations where the three corrected tests perform better than the usual score test, the likelihood ratio test and its Bartlett corrected version. Finally, we present a numerical example for a data set discussed by Simonoff and Tsai (1994) .     

小城镇经济辐射区研究--以重庆为例

本文以重庆为例,分析了小城镇经济辐射区范围的形成受行政范围、自然条件、人口规模、城镇用地规模、经济结构、经济规模、交通和市场等八个主要因素的影响,指出小城镇经济辐射能力弱、辐射范围小是欠发达地区普遍存在的现实问题,并在此基础上提出了相关建议.     

农村人力资本投资及外溢与城乡差距实证研究

文章以人力资本溢出效应城乡两区域模型为基础,采用协整检验和误差修正模型,对中国农村人力资本投资及外溢与城乡差距的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,缩小中国城乡差距,必须加大对农村的人力资本投资。同时,要加强政府对农村的基础设施投资,为农村人力资本作用的充分发挥创造条件。     

The price relationship between organic and non-organic vegetables in the U.S.: evidence from Nielsen scanner data

This study investigates price relationships between organic and conventional carrots, tomatoes, and lettuce in the U.S. utilizing Nielsen scanner data from 2006–2015. We employ a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM), threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR), and threshold cointegration test to test whether market integration exists between organic and conventional vegetables as well as the existence of asymmetric price transmission. The results find positive long-run relationships between organic and conventional prices of carrots and tomatoes and show the existence of asymmetric price transmission in price pairs of lettuce and tomatoes. Our findings suggest that the price relationship between organic and conventional vegetables varies by characteristics, such as shelf life, volatility in the price premium, and substitutability.     

Explaining Real Commercial Rents Using an Error Correction Model with Panel Data

This paper presents rent models for retail and office property in the United Kingdom. Panel data are used covering eleven regions for 29 years, enabling us to overcome the limitations of a relatively short time series. We use an error correction model (ECM) framework to estimate long-run equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamic corrections. The combination of panel data and an ECM is an innovative approach that is still being developed in economics. We construct new supply series that combine infrequent stock data with more frequent construction data. Separate regional models are estimated for retail and office properties. The regions are then combined into a number of panels on the basis of the income and price elasticities in the long-run and short-run models. Unlike previous studies, we find no evidence of a board north–south divide between low growth and high growth regions. Like these studies we do find a London effect: in London, demand elasticities for space with respect to both price (rent) and income are much lower in magnitude. We conclude that, while the economic drivers may vary, there is no evidence of differences in the operation of the regional property markets outside London. Elasticities for retail and office are similar. Our final models are parsimonious with single measures of economic activity and of supply and always support the use of an ECM.     

信息技术对竞争景框的影响--对波特观点的完善与修正

在分析信息技术对企业的影响时，波特教授对竞争景框变化的论述并不全面和完全正确。不全面在于，他只述及信息技术对地理景框和产业景框的影响，没有提到另两个方面——细分景框和纵向景框的变化。不正确在于，他笼统地提竞争景框的扩大或缩小，而竞争景框四方面在外力作用下变化并不总是一致的。本文认为，在信息技术影响下，竞争景框发生了四个方面不同的变化：细分景框、产业景框和纵向景框三个方面是缩小的，地理景框是扩大的。     

基于MATLAB提高Pt100测温系统响应速度的研究

通过对外加保护铜套的Pt100测温系统的实验研究,利用MATLAB建立了该系统对温度输入响应的数学模型,并通过合理增设串联相位超前校正网络提高了Pt100测温系统的响应速度。对于不同组成的Pt100测温系统,可选择不同的串联相位超前校正装置参数实现响应速度的提高。     

An integrated multi-model credit rating system for private firms

This paper presents a integrated credit risk modelling approach for private firms which fulfil 2001 Basel Accord requirements in the case of the adoption of the foundation approach. Our model comprises: (a) a bottom-up technique to initially assess the through-the-cycle one-year Probability of Default (PD) and (b) a top-down approach to refine and calibrate this historical PD in a forward-looking credit risk assessment based on next year’s economic outlook. We present findings from applying this model to a large sample of client firms of the Bank of Rome.     

加强基础设施建设,提升中心城区的辐射带动能力

在新型城镇化进程中,加强中心城区的基础设施建设、提升中心城区的承载能力、发挥中心城区的辐射带动作用十分重要。本文在分析了黄河三角洲地区中心城市基础设施建设存在不足的基础上,提出了加强中心城区基础设施建设的看法与建议,旨在为全面提升该区域的城镇化水平提供参考。