Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy

We evaluate the empirical performance of forward‐looking models for inflation dynamics in a small open economy. Using likelihood‐based testing procedures, we find that the exact formulation is at odds with Norwegian data. Moreover, some of the parameters in the model are not well identified. We also find that the inexact formulation is not rejected statistically using a test based on a minimum distance method. However, confidence regions also reveal an identification problem with this model. Instead, we find a well‐specified backward‐looking model with imperfect competition underlying the price setting, which is a model that outperforms an alternative forward‐looking model in‐sample. The backward‐looking model also forecasts somewhat better than the alternative forward‐looking model, during and after the recent financial crisis.     

浅谈高职院校射线检测实训的辐射防护

高职院校开设《射线检测实训》主要是进行对无损检测技术中对材料内部的不连续性进行的射线穿透照相法。对于学生在射线检测实训时必须要考虑射线防护问题,本文通过对实训时间安排和实训室屏蔽层厚度上讨论关于安全开展《射线检测实训》需要再注意哪些方面。     

Correcting for survey effects in pre‐election polls

Pre‐election polls can suffer from survey effects, causing biases in forecasted election outcomes. We advocate a simple methodology to estimate the magnitude of survey effects, by collecting data both before and after the election. This method is illustrated by means of a field study with data concerning the 2009 European Parliament elections in the Netherlands. Our study provides empirical evidence of significant positive survey effects with respect to voter participation, especially for individuals with low intention to vote. For our data, the overall survey effect on party shares is small. This effect can be more substantial, for example, if political orientation and voting intention are correlated in the sample.     

山地地区地表一致性剩余静校正技术应用技巧

山地地区地表和地下地质条件复杂,接收条件差,原始资料信噪比低,做剩余静校正前很难准确的识别有效速度,经过几次速度分析和剩余静校正后,才得到容易辨认的速度,但是由于初始速度和初始静校正量的误差问题,往往剩余静校正的迭代不是收敛的,得不到真实的地下构造形态。只有采用比较合理的求取初始速度方法,才能保证得到真实合理的成像。     

Modeling domestic holiday tourism demand in Australia: Problems and solutions

An econometric model is very useful for understanding the underlying relationship between tourism demand and economic variables such as income and travel prices. However, a long time series horizon of data is essential to run an econometric model that is consistent with economic theory. Although time series data on the number of domestic trips and visitor nights in Australia are available since 1978–79, breaks in the time series in different years have made it difficult to estimate a domestic holiday demand model. It is because the data series in different periods are not directly comparable. In this study, a simple data adjustment technique has been used to obtain comparable data series. Among several econometric demand models, a single equation multivariate time series demand model in a double log linear functional form was found to be the most appropriate and practical model to estimate and analyze the demand parameters of domestic holiday travel in Australia. However, the model with variables in level terms was observed having the “spurious regression problem” which has been corrected using the cointegration and error correction mechanisms. The estimated income and price elasticity of domestic holiday travel demand are consistent with economic theory and therefore can be used for forecasting and other purposes.     

我国沪深300股指期货价格发现功能的实证分析

我国股指期货的推出对证券市场产生了巨大的影响,改变了股票市场缺乏规避系统性风险工具的现状,给金融市场带来新的生机与活力。本文采用协整检验、误差修正模型、方差分解和脉冲响应函数实证分析了我国股票市场和期货市场的价格发现功能。研究发现股指期货在价格发现上占主导地位,表明我国股指期货的推出,增强了市场效率,使市场信息能够更快捷的传达。     

Cointegration analysis of the intensity of the ERM currencies under the European Monetary System

This paper examines the (long-run) intra-zonal elasticities between the spot exchange rates of the deutschemark and other major ERM currencies (French franc, Belgian franc, Dutch guilder, Danish krone, Italian lira and British pound) under the EMS. The findings show that under the fixed-but-adjustable rate system, the hypothesis of no cointegration can be rejected for all chosen ERM currency pairs and unit restriction on zonal elasticities can be accepted for almost all cointegrated currency pairs. On the other hand, under the fixed-rate system, Danish krone, Italian lira and British pound fail the cointegration test and the zonal elasticities for all cointegrated currency pairs are rejected to be unity. The study signifies less intense linkages of the ERM currencies without parity realignments. Finally, the deutschmark took the role of error-correcting process for one cointegrated currency pair under the fixed-but-adjustable-rate system, and it performed the same role for two pairs under the fixed-rate system. Hence, deutschmark should not be assumed a priori statistically exogenous under the EMS     

CBERS-2 CCD遥感图像辐射校正技术

在对CBERS-2卫星CCD遥感图像辐射校正技术进行深入研究的基础上,给出了图像的0级预处理、传感器标定、大气辐射校正、照度校正等技术方法。在0级图像预处理方面,提出了利用测试数据来解决拼接区的辐射失真问题,并提出一种新的条纹检测技术;传感器的标校方面,讨论了底电平和非均匀性的消除方法;大气辐射校正采用回归分析法和直方图法;给出了太阳高度和地形坡度的照度校正方法与技术。     

东北振兴中的边境贸易发展及对策建议

边境贸易作为对外贸易的一种方式在东北振兴中发挥着特殊的作用，但其作用还远远没有发挥出来。本文着重论证了东北边境贸易得天独厚的优势、现状以及面临的问题和对策建议，进一步分析边境贸易的战略地位和潜在价值，从战略性高度提出发展东北边境贸易的建议。     

基于幅度调制畸变Wiener模型的OOK辐射源指纹特征提取

通过分析生成On-Off Keying（OOK）信号的发射机系统的幅度调制畸变特性，阐明了OOK信号辐射源特征产生机理，建立了OOK辐射源的幅度调制畸变特性的Wiener模型，并根据信号模型应用差分进化算法完成OOK幅度畸变特性参数的估计，从而构建辐射源指纹特征完成对OOK信号辐射源的识别。仿真试验和实际数据测试表明，该算法具备OOK辐射源指纹特征提取和识别能力，对实测数据中4个OOK辐射源识别率为93%，优于基于暂态幅度特征的提取方法。