Testing PPP Hypotheses between Japan and the Six G7 Countries

The paper examines the purchasing power parity(PPP) theory of the foreign exchange rate of the yenagainst the currencies of the six G7 countries. We usethe error-corrected five-dimensional vectorautoregressive (VAR) model with structural changes inthe trend function. The data cover the period of thepost-Breton–Woods floating exchange rate system. Theresults reveal that the PPP relation alone determinesthe exchange rates for the USA, France, Germany, andItaly, while a linear combination of PPP and uncoveredinterest rate parity (UIP) relations determines that for Canada. Ina model without trend breaks, the PPP relations holdonly for Germany, which indicates that a correctspecification of the sampling distribution of data isimportant. The one-step prediction based on the errorcorrection model (ECM) outperforms the random walkmodel. The ECM is useful to predict the out-of-samplebehaviors of the exchange rates.     

中国区域要素替代弹性变迁及其增长效应——基于异质劳动视角的随机前沿生产函数分析

文章采用1996-2014年省际面板数据构建区域随机前沿生产函数模型,从劳动异质性视角拓展要素替代弹性分析;并首次联合运用协整方程和误差修正模型,从长期均衡和短期波动过程分析来揭示要素替代约束对经济增长的影响.结果发现:尽管三大区域各自的要素替代弹性变化显著不同,但要素替代弹性的增长效应却彼此具有一致性.其中,东部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性明显地存在着0.805的增长门槛,只有西部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性越过了门槛值,与区域增长具有尚不显著的正相关性而支持德拉格兰德维尔假说;三大区域的资本-技能互补性提高对经济增长的推动作用都不明显;劳动-技能替代弹性则表现为显著的正向增长效应,显示出各区域存在着人力资本红利.值得注意的是,与均衡增长路径上"资本-劳动替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长"的德拉格兰德维尔假说不同,在考虑劳动异质性和技术非效率的前提下,中国地区增长更支持"劳动-技能替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长"的结论.文章为甄别新常态下的区域增长潜力转变、剖析要素匹配合理性及产业结构调整可行性奠定基础.     

兰白西城市经济辐射区与空间发展趋势研究

通过对传统城市引力模型的修正和场强的引入,从定量角度,以兰州市为中心计算出城市间的相互作用力,确定兰州有效吸引区作为兰白西城市的经济辐射区,并根据其强、弱影响区的范围来预测兰白西城市经济辐射区的空间发展趋势。     

排污收费政策的成效分析——基于浙江省的实证分析

排污收费是我国政府为环保治污所采取的一项主要环境政策。本文依据浙江省1994-2010年相关环境数据,对排污收费在降低能耗、抑制工业废水及废气排放等方面的政策效应进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,浙江省排污收费与单位GDP能耗、单位GDP废水排放量之间存在长期负相关性,与单位GDP废气排放量不存在长期均衡关系。为使排污收费政策充分发挥作用,指出应着重对其征收标准、范围、及监管等方面进行改进和完善。     

中国经济发展与能源消费、环境关系的实证分析

采用1985～2007年中国能源消费、环境与经济增长的时间序列数据,利用单位根检验、协整分析、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,对中国经济增长和能源消费、环境之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:中国的能源消费、煤炭消费、石油消费、电力消费、工业固体废物产生量均与经济增长之间存在一种长期均衡关系。格兰杰因果关系分析发现,经济增长与能源消费之间存在双向因果关系,经济增长与煤炭消费、电力消费之间只存在单向因果关系,经济增长与石油消费、工业固体废物产生量之间不存在因果关系。     

国债对民间消费效率的计量分析——基于协整和ECM模型的检验

采用1981年～2007年数据,用协整和误差修正模型分析了我国国债对民间消费的效率,分析表明:无论是从长期还是短期看,国债的存量和流量都促进了我国的民间消费;我国国债符合"凯恩斯主义"理论,"李嘉图主义"关于国债理论在中国不成立.     

Knowledge spill-over from new to old industries: The case of German synthetic dyes and textiles (1878-1913)

We construct a data set of long-lived German patents of patent classes dyes (22) and dyeing (8) to measure the accumulation path of technological knowledge with respect to dyeing textiles. Using these data we show with a vector error correction model that in the German Empire inter-industry knowledge spill-over between the new chemical industry and the old textile industry created an upward circle of “endogenous growth.” The increasing demand for synthetic dyes of the prospering textile firms initiated further research and development projects of the chemical firms that led to new patents and via customer consulting and customer training to additional economic benefits of the textile industry.     

测距仪距离改正数的显著性检验及其检定精度

本文讨论了测距仪的加常数a、乘常数b和距离改正数ΔS(=a+bS)的显著性检验问题。讨论的结果表明,加常数和乘常数的显著性并不能决定距离改正数的显著性。所以,我们应当对距离改正数进行显著性检验,以决定是否用它来对观测边长进行改正。本文还从公式论证和模拟试验两个方面讨论了距离改正数的检定精度及其可靠性问题。     

EXPLAINING THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN SOUTH AFRICA

What determines government spending in South Africa? The paper estimates the determinants of real per capita government spending in the Republic of South Africa using annual data for the period 1960‐2007, a tumultuous period during which South Africa experienced a variety of internally imposed changes (e.g. the abolition of apartheid, changes in political institutions) and externally generated shocks (e.g. war, oil shocks). Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find that per capita government spending, per capita income, the tax share and the wage rate are cointegrated, a result that supports the notion that government spending is associated not only with per capita income and the true cost of government service provision as given by the wage rate but also with the fiscal illusion caused by budget deficits. We also find evidence that per capita government spending was positively affected by external shocks. These external shocks seem to play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of government spending growth.