云南省能源消费与经济增长动态关系——基于向量误差修正模型的实证研究

基于云南1980—2019年时间序列数据,在能源、资本和劳动三要素C-D生产函数框架下,利用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型、Granger因果检验等定量分析工具,对能源消费与经济增长的短期和长期关系进行实证检验。结果表明:二者存在相互促进的长期均衡关系,而短期不存在因果关系,说明云南经济结构优化向好,能源依赖度低;此外存在纠偏机制,误差修正项对能源消费的调整速度显著快于对实际GDP的调整速度,说明云南能源产业具有良好的自我调节功能。最后指出云南能源产业今后的发展重点是加快建立系统整合的能源-经济决策架构,同时政府应着力营造稳定的宏观经济环境。     

排污收费政策的成效分析——基于浙江省的实证分析

排污收费是我国政府为环保治污所采取的一项主要环境政策。本文依据浙江省1994-2010年相关环境数据,对排污收费在降低能耗、抑制工业废水及废气排放等方面的政策效应进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,浙江省排污收费与单位GDP能耗、单位GDP废水排放量之间存在长期负相关性,与单位GDP废气排放量不存在长期均衡关系。为使排污收费政策充分发挥作用,指出应着重对其征收标准、范围、及监管等方面进行改进和完善。     

Dynamic Relationships between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from Korea

This paper examines the short‐run and long‐run dynamic relationships between exchange rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Korea. Monthly data retrieved from the Bank of Korea from January 1999 to March 2012 are examined. A cointegration test, a vector error correction model, the Wald test and impulse responses techniques are applied to analyze the data. The present study finds that, first, long‐run causation between exchange rates and FDI flows exists, which implies that a change in exchange rates negatively affects FDI flows in the long run. Second, short‐run causation between exchange rates and FDI flows exists, which confirms that there is reciprocal feedback between the two variables. Finally, the study finds evidence of a structural break from the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 shock to FDI flows in Korea. An external shock affects changes in the endogenous variables and, thus, causes instability in the cointegrating vector in the system.     

农村固定资产投资对农民收入的影响研究

农村基础性、生产性固定资产投资对农民经营性、工资性、财产性收入的变动具有积极的正面效应。文章采用1981—2011年的数据检验农村固定资产投资对农民收入的影响,结果认为农村固定资产投资与农民收入之间存在均衡关系,农村固定资产投资可以持久显著地增加农村居民人均纯收入,缩小城乡发展差距。     

EXPLAINING THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN SOUTH AFRICA

What determines government spending in South Africa? The paper estimates the determinants of real per capita government spending in the Republic of South Africa using annual data for the period 1960‐2007, a tumultuous period during which South Africa experienced a variety of internally imposed changes (e.g. the abolition of apartheid, changes in political institutions) and externally generated shocks (e.g. war, oil shocks). Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find that per capita government spending, per capita income, the tax share and the wage rate are cointegrated, a result that supports the notion that government spending is associated not only with per capita income and the true cost of government service provision as given by the wage rate but also with the fiscal illusion caused by budget deficits. We also find evidence that per capita government spending was positively affected by external shocks. These external shocks seem to play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of government spending growth.     

试证新疆金融发展与经济增长的关系

新疆金融行业的目前发展状况很大程度上也牵制了新疆的发展,分析新疆区域金融发展与经济增长问题具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。本文运用数量经济方法,在单整和协整检验的基础上,利用误差修正模型(ECM)及Granger因果检验对新疆地区金融发展与经济增长的内在联系进行实证分析,认为新疆的金融发展与经济增长不仅存在正向促进关系,而且存在Granger意义上的因果关系。在此基础上本文结合新疆实际,对新疆金融业发展提出了相应的政策建议。     

跨国公司在华R&D投资技术溢出效应及对我国技术创新的影响

20世纪90年代以来,跨国公司获得了迅速发展,关于跨国公司的各方面也受到密切关注和研究,并取得巨大成果。文章通过从运行机制和对我国技术创新的影响两方面分析跨国公司在华R&D投资的技术溢出效应,最后提出了相关建议和措施。     

广东经济增长协整分析

本文通过对广东省1978～2007年的GDP、全社会固定资产投资和税收三个时间序列进行数量分析,发现它们之间存在协整关系,基于这个协整关系建立误差修正模型(ECM),在对模型进行分析后,对广东的经济发展提出一些建议。     

关于社会主义的概念、特征及理论演进-从马克思、恩格斯到列宁

自从马克思主义创始人提出科学社会主义学说以来,对社会主义的认识并非始终如一、一成不变的,而是经历了一个在曲折中不断发展、不断深化的过程。本文考察了"社会主义"一词的语用情况及马克思、恩格斯和列宁在指称上的差异,在此基础上,本文梳理了马克思和恩格斯概括的科学社会主义的基本特征和他们后期提出的新见解,以及列宁的理论突破与演进。在经济文化落后于资本主义的社会形态里,无产阶级夺取国家政权之后,应该按什么模式进行社会主义建设,这既是一个理论问题,又是一个实践问题。探索"什么是社会主义",应坚持理论与实践的有机结合。     

The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review

Most applied cointegration investigations for the open macro economy rely on error correction models to infer causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, and market segmentation. The error correction model is well defined only when cointegration is due to simultaneous common factors. When common factors are not explicitly described as in a latent common factor model, however, error correction models are misspecified. Researchers should therefore be careful in using the error correction model for cointegrated time series to ensure that they are indeed generated from simultaneous common factor models. Analysts should investigate the exact nature of both long-run and short-run relationships by presenting a full-fledged simultaneous equations model. Without such an explicit simultaneous equations model, the presence of cointegration will only uncover the existence of a long-run relationship, but not causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, or market segmentation. A best practice will be prescribed for the proper use and interpretation of cointegration application.