Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.     

Can intertemporal choice experiments elicit time preferences for consumption?

The paper considers what can be inferred about experimental subjects’ time preferences for consumption from responses to laboratory tasks involving tradeoffs between sums of money at different dates, if subjects can reschedule consumption spending relative to income in external capital markets. It distinguishes three approaches identifiable in the literature: the straightforward view; the separation view; and the censored data view. It shows that none of these is fully satisfactory and discusses the resulting implications for intertemporal decision-making experiments. JEL Classification C90, C91, D90, D91, D11, D12     

Timing and Commitment of Environmental Policy,Adoption of New Technology,and Repercussions on R&;D

We investigate the interplay between environmental policy, incentives to adoptnew technology, and repercussions on R&D. We study a model where a monopolistic upstream firm engages in R&D and sells advanced abatement technology to polluting downstream firms. We consider four different timing and commitment regimes of environmental tax and permit policies: ex post taxation (or issuing permits), interim commitment to a tax rate (a quota of permits) after observing R&D success but before adoption, and finally two types of ex antecommitment before R&D activity, one with a unique tax rate (quota of permits), the other one with a menu of tax rates (permit quotas). We study the second best tax and permit policies and rank these with respect to welfare. In particular, we find that commitment to a menu of tax rate dominates all other policy regimes.     

Persistence of Shocks to Output in Austria and Theories of Economic Growth

The paper analyzes the degree of output persistence in GDP in order toempirically discriminate between the Solow growth model, the perfect competition endogenous growth model and the imperfect competition endogenous growth model for the case of Austria. Wefind that a shock in the growth rate of output induces a permanent and larger effect on the level of GDP. This leads us to refute the Solow growth model and the perfect competition model of endogenous growth.We may not reject the imperfect competition growth model.     

阿根廷贸易政策与汇率制度的错配及启示

上世纪，阿根廷贸易政策与货币政策的错配导致了其宏观经济的不稳定。长期以来，阿根廷深受庇隆主义封闭政策的影响，实行进口替代战略，使其优者变劣，劣者不优。不仅使产业结构失衡，对外贸易长期处于逆差。同时，长期实行僵硬的固定汇率制度但允许资本自由流动，引发了恶性通货膨胀。长期的高消费、低储蓄与进口替代导致了低的资本积累率，政治家权利欲望只能以巨额的财政赤字与高筑外债来维持，当政权无以为继时又靠通货膨胀来掠夺财富，从而引发经济和政治危机的循环。另外，阿根廷在贸易自由化之前允许资本项目的自由化显然是一个严重的错误。     

基于混合优化算法的带时间窗的车辆调度问题求解研究

论文建立了带时间窗的车辆调度问题的数学模型，并针对遗传算法在局部搜索能力方面的不足，提出将模拟退火算法与遗传算法相结合，从而构造了求解车辆调度问题的混合优化算法，并进行了实验计算。计算结果表明，用这种混合优化算法求解车辆调度问题，可以在一定程度上用模拟退火算法突跳性克服遗传算法在局部搜索能力方面的不足，从而得到质量较高的解。     

金融工具会计准则交易税制设计的思考

为了规范金融工具的确认和计量,反映金融工具对金融机构财务状况和经营成果所带来的真实影响,揭示其潜在风险,提高金融机构的会计信息的质量,新颁布的金融工具会计准则采用公允价值计量,并将损益纳入当期损益。本文分析了此举对我国税制所产生的影响,并对金融工具交易的税制设计提出了设想。     

Geometrical Interpretation of the Mean and the Constant in a Box-Jenkins Time Series Model

Certain manuals and computer programs mistakenly identify the mean with the constant in Box-Jenkins time series models. In this paper, it will be shown that (a) the mean and the constant have different values in autoregressive models, and (b) they have an algebraic and graphical relationship.     

Time variation in the cointegrating relationship between stock prices and economic activity

The present paper examines whether there exists a long‐run cointegrating relationship between a stock market index and output and interest rates. Moreover, estimation is conducted over the full sample and both a recursive and rolling sample to examine any time variation in the nature of the relationship. The results support evidence of a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices typically exhibit a positive relationship with industrial production and a negative relationship with interest rates. However, there is significant time variation and periods of time where contrary results are observed. As such any model of stock prices needs to account for such time variation     

生产劳动力的劳动时间的探讨

传统经济学的劳动力价值理论只有生产劳动力的生产费用(物化劳动),没有生产劳动力的劳动时间(活劳动)的耗费。劳动力的生产也有劳动时间的耗费。劳动力的自然再生产时间不形成劳动力的价值,劳动力的社会再生产时间、即学习劳动的时间形成劳动力的价值。劳动力价值包括两个部分:一是生产劳动力的物化劳动,如生活费用和学习费用等;二是生产劳动力的活劳动即学习劳动。