家庭消费碳排放影响因素及其变化趋势分析——以陕西省为例

以陕西省2003—2017年数据为样本,建立LMDI模型分析各因素对陕西省家庭消费碳排放的影响及其变化趋势。结果表明,家庭消费效应、住房面积效应和家庭规模效应是造成家庭碳排放上升的正向推动因素,而碳排放强度效应、消费抑制效应和居住密度效应对家庭碳排放具有负向影响;2003—2017年,碳排放强度效应呈“U”型变化趋势,家庭消费效应、家庭规模效应和住房面积效应呈上升趋势,消费抑制效应和居住密度效应呈下降趋势。政府制定碳减排政策时可从碳排放贡献率较大的家庭消费、住房面积和家庭规模等方面着手,有针对性地缓解日益增长的家庭消费碳排放。     

Hedge fund strategies,performance &diversification: A portfolio theory & stochastic discount factor approach

For 5500 North American hedge funds following 11 different strategies, we analyse the stand-alone performance of these strategies using a stochastic discount factor approach. Employing the same data, we then consider the diversification benefits of each hedge fund strategy when combined with a portfolio of US equities and bonds. We compute the out-of-sample Black-Litterman portfolios, with Bayes-Stein, higher moments, simulations, desmoothed data and allowance for regimes as robustness checks. All but two hedge fund strategies out-perform the market as stand-alone investments; and all but one provide significant diversification benefits. The higher is an investor’s risk aversion, the more beneficial is diversification into hedge funds.     

Effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on the exposure of investment-style factor returns to real activity

How do uncertainty and risk aversion affect the behavior of investment-style factors? We argue that a significant channel through which both uncertainty and risk aversion impact aggregate risk factors is the exposure of factor returns to real activity. We analyze this issue using mixed data sampling decomposition of the sensitivity of factor returns to real activity into high- and low-frequency components. We find a positive and significant relation between uncertainty and risk aversion for the low-frequency component of the sensitivity of factor returns to economic activity. More importantly, risk aversion significantly amplifies the effects of uncertainty on real activity exposure. The quality-based factor is an important exception to these findings.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下农民工就业面临的主要问题及应对策略研究

新冠肺炎疫情对农民工产生较大负面影响,一季度农民工就业将面临巨大冲击,三类农民工就业需高度关注。部分农民工返城复工面临诸多现实困难,农业生产要素和农产品流动性显著降低,返乡务农者面临十分严峻的挑战。农民工全年整体收入减少将成为大概率事件,部分低收入农民工家庭可能陷入生存困境。相关对策建议:推动劳务输出和输入省份之间精准对接,帮助有条件的农民工实现安全、稳定就业。借鉴东西部对口帮扶就业扶贫办法,由专人负责组织农民工外出并送至就业地点。强化有条件地区对农民工就业吸纳。加大新型职业农民培育和支持力度,吸引培育一批新农民,多措并举支持返乡农民工渡过难关。将农民工全面纳入城市社会管理服务对象,重点关注农村“三留守”人员和困难家庭的生活问题。     

The migrant crisis in the Mediterranean Sea: Empirical evidence on policy interventions

This paper presents a novel set of empirical evidence to explore several hypotheses regarding the migrant crisis in the Mediterranean Sea. The political instability in transit countries, such as Libya, that made pre-existent repatriation policies ineffective, called for several search-and-rescue operations in the Mediterranean, which in turn have been wrongly accused of fostering illegal immigration and increasing deaths at sea. The empirical results show that the main determinants of the departures are several root causes at the departing African countries, underlining the importance of fighting human smuggling networks. The paper suggests a change in migration studies’ perspective, to leave behind the pull-and-push-factors narrative that is open to be politically slanted and to focus instead on the short-term versus long-term horizons of implementation of the policy interventions.     

A practical approach to determining critical macroeconomic factors in air-traffic volume based on K-means clustering and decision-tree classification

A given region's volume of air passengers and cargo is frequently taken to represent its economic development. This research proposes a practical methodology for investigating the inherent patterns of the relationships between air-traffic volume and macroeconomic development, utilizing data-mining techniques, including K-means clustering and Decision Tree C5.0 classification. Using the case of Taiwan from 2001 to 2014, 32 potential macroeconomic factors ascertained from a literature review were combined with air-traffic volume data to establish a 168-month dataset. After this dataset was grouped into five clusters, decision trees were implemented to determine its critical macroeconomic characteristics. The resulting four critical factors and their thresholds were the Information and Electronics Industrial Production Index (IE Index), at 83.22; National Income Per Capita, at US$3,222; Employed Population, at 10.134 million; and the Japanese Nikkei 225 Stock Average, at 10564.44. Among these, the IE Index was found to be the first critical factor relating to air-traffic volume as well as the only characteristic to distinguish Cluster V – 58 consecutive months from March 2010 to December 2014 inclusive – among others, and the reasonableness of this finding was confirmed via examination of detailed air-traffic statistics. Besides, the effectiveness of the four identified critical factors as predictive variables were validated by comparing forecasted results with actual air traffic volume from 2015 to 2016. Understanding these four critical factors and their relative importance is of great value to policymakers seeking to allocate limited resources optimally and objectively. Therefore, as an effective and efficient means of capturing significant and explainable macroeconomic factors influencing air-traffic volume, the proposed methodology can be applied to strategy formulation, operations management, and investment planning by governments, airports, airlines, and related entities.     

社交媒体平台旅游者生成内容的影响因素研究

在Web 2.0时代,社交媒体平台旅游者生成内容日益成为公众关注的重点,其对旅游者行程规划及企业的发展意义重大。但是,旅游者生成内容在现实发展过程中出现了优质旅游者生成内容不足及旅游者生成内容质量急速下降等问题。文章采用扎根理论质性研究方法,以热爱社交媒体的青年群体为研究对象,探索社交媒体平台旅游者生成内容的影响因素及作用路径。在此基础上,构建“环境”“平台”“个体动机”的理论模型,并从这三方面提出激发旅游者生成内容动机及行为的建议。     

技术产权交易激励机制探析——以泰州市为例

通过对泰州市技术产权交易激励政策的梳理,研究激励现状,总结了技术产权交易市场存在的问题,结合有关激励理论和技术产权交易的影响因素,从政策、技术、中介、风险控制等多角度为技术产权交易激励机制构建提出建议。     

Cosmetics makers have always sold ‘hope in a jar’! Understanding the cosmetics purchase intention in the Chinese mobile commerce environment

Using the S-O-R model, we investigate the impact of situational factors (interpersonal influence, visual appeal, and portability) on hedonic and utilitarian web browsing and expand the theory by exploring the moderating roles of scarcity and serendipity. Data were collected from 988 participants via an online survey. Structural equation modeling was performed using AMOS 23. The results show that the situational factors positively influence hedonic and utilitarian web browsing. Scarcity and serendipity have a significant moderating role in the relationship between hedonic web browsing, utilitarian web browsing, and cosmetics m-commerce purchase intention. This study hopes to provide a deeper understanding of consumer behavior and attitudes in the cosmetics market in the m-commerce context.     

Virtual travel community members’ stickiness behaviour: How and when it develops

This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the influence of relational and personal factors on virtual travel community (VTC) members’ stickiness behavior. Thus, this study adds to limited research on the drivers and boundary conditions of VTC members’ stickiness behavior which is crucial for building thriving communities. With the increasingly fierce competition in the online travel market, enhancing VTCs site stickiness becomes timely and more important to avoid consumers switching easily to competitive websites. 431 online survey responses were obtained from the Where Are You Now (WAYN) VTC and analyzed using SEM. Results show trust plays a stronger role than commitment in strengthening members’ site stickiness. Contrary to conventional wisdom, site stickiness is stronger for male travelers and is weaker for high-income travelers but is not affected by age. The results contribute to SOR theory by shedding more light on how VTC members’ stickiness behavior develops and when it is stronger/weaker for a specific travel group. The findings also provide practical insights to assist VTC operators in vitalizing and cultivating members’ site stickiness and in allocating resources adequately.