分红保险合同红利负债的确认与计量研究

近年来分红保险已成为我国保险市场的热销产品,它几乎占据了寿险市场的半壁江山,但分红保险负债的确认与计量问题,特别是分红保险红利负债的确认与计量问题在我国并未形成统一的规范,本文根据分红保险的不同红利分配方式对分红保险合同红利负债的确认与计量问题进行研究。     

企业技术创新风险的聚类分析:一项实证研究

技术创新已经成为许多企业在市场竞争中获得竞争优势的重要途径,但是各种风险因素的存在使得企业技术创新的成功率并不高。以问卷调查为基础,以有向聚类为工具,通过实证分析对各种技术创新风险因素进行了聚类,归纳出了相对重要的风险因素。对这些因素的提炼,有助于企业理解并缓解技术创新的风险。     

我国证券市场风险收益特征的行为基础

我国证券市场的风险收益具有以下特征:(1)资本资产定价模型所揭示的风险收益关系在我国股市并不显著。(2)我国证券市场系统性风险占整体风险的比例较高。(3)从趋势上看,无论个股还是行业系统性风险占整体风险的指标没有明显的下降趋势。这些特征根源于我国特定的投资者结构以及不同投资者的风险厌恶特性和对私人信息的偏好特性。因此,投资者应针对上述特征,在集中投资、反向交易和降低交易频率等方面调整交易策略,提高投资收益率。     

The Effect of Risk Characteristics on the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions from Electric Power Generation

The objective of this study is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for the reduction of mortality risks caused by fossil fuel (natural gas, coal and oil) versus nuclear electric power generation systems and to examine the influence of risk characteristics involved with electric power generation on WTP. A choice experiment was conducted to achieve these objectives. The attributes for nuclear risks in the experiment included the probability of disasters and the expected losses if a disaster occurs. We find evidence of (i) a baseline effect (where WTP is sensitive to hypothetical versus actual baseline expected mortality); (ii) a ‘labeling effect,’ where, surprisingly, the term ‘nuclear’ has no effect on WTP, but the term ‘fossil-fueled power generation’ results in lower WTP; and (iii) disaster aversion, meaning that people focus on the conditional loss from a nuclear disaster, not the probability. We also find that the WTP for reducing deaths from a nuclear disaster is about 60 times the WTP for routine reducing fossil-fuel generation-related deaths.     

Discrepancies between ex ante and ex post efficiency under identical subjective probabilities

Summary. Starr (1973) showed that, if people have different subjective probabilities, ex ante and ex post efficiency conflict. Conversely, under the simple preferences that he considered, the discrepancy between ex ante and ex post efficiency disappears when subjective probabilities are identical. Here I consider identical subjective probabilities, but more general preferences. First, risk attraction is admitted. Second, I dispense with the double requirement (dubbed IZU) of additive separability and state-independence of the utility of zero-date consumption, an unrealistic requirement when modeling the investment in durable goods. I find that, under IZU, and as long as ex post preferences satisfy the natural assumption of quasiconcavity (and satisfy some technical qualifications), an ex ante efficient allocation is indeed ex post efficient, but the converse is not necessarily true under risk attraction. If, on the other hand, IZU is violated, then one can have ex ante efficient allocations that are not ex post efficient, and vice-versa, even under risk aversion. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: March 2001     

知识资本风险预警指标体系及其评价方法研究

知识资本是知识型企业生存发展的关键核心资源,其存在不确定性和风险性.从人力资本状态、技术资本状态、管理资本状态、市场资本状态和顾客资本状态5个方面构建了知识型企业知识资本风险预警指标体系;利用模糊评价方法对指标体系进行了分析;结合具体算例说明了模糊评价方法的可应用性.     

Evaluating flood risk management options in Scotland: A participant-led multi-criteria approach

The characteristics of flood risk management include complexity, large spatial scales, inter-temporal issues, plural values and conflicts of interests. It is argued that issues with such characteristics require public participation in the decision making process. This study builds on existing deliberative processes to develop a new participant-led multi-criteria method to evaluate flood risk management options in Scotland. The results show that participants preferred regeneration or planting of native woodland to other flood management options, and least preferred building flood walls and embankments. The design of the workshops allowed a rich dataset to reveal the thinking behind such results and provided a deeper understanding of why participants came to these conclusions.     

加强建筑企业职业健康安全管理之我见

无论从建筑企业自身,还是行业发展;无论是近期生存还是长远发展,建立有效的职业健康安全管理体系,可有效保护建筑业劳动人员的健康安全,完善中国社会主义市场经济运行机制,促进社会稳定、经济健康发展。     

出生缺陷地理风险因子的空间分析

出生缺陷是影响人口出生质量最重要的因素。大量研究表明,出生缺陷仅仅靠单纯的生物医学研究还不够,多学科的交叉研究是有效探讨出生缺陷病因和预防的唯一出路。利用北京大学人口环境健康组调查数据,分类了能够在地理空间上归属的出生缺陷风险因素,将这些因素存在的空间相关性进行了传统统计分析方法不适宜的风险因子与出生缺陷统计因果之间的研究。探讨了空间分析技术在出生缺陷的地理风险因子研究的一般步骤与关键技术,为出生缺陷研究提供了新的思路。     

Art as an investment: Short and long-term comovements in major painting markets

This paper examines the short and long-term price linkages among major art and equity markets over the period 1976–2001. The art markets examined are Contemporary Masters, French Impressionists, Modern European, 19^th Century European, Old Masters, Surrealists, 20^th Century English and Modern US paintings. A global equity index (with dividends and capitalisation changes) is also included. Multivariate cointegration procedures, Granger non-causality tests, level VAR and generalised variance decomposition analyses based on error-correction and vector autoregressive models are conducted to analyse short and long-run relationships among these markets. The results indicate that there is a stationary long-run relationship and significant short and long run causal linkages between the various painting markets and between the equity market and painting markets. However, in terms of the percentage of variance explained most painting markets are relatively isolated, and other painting markets are generally more important than the equity market in explaining the variance that is not caused by innovations in the market itself. This suggests that opportunities for portfolio diversification in art works alone and in conjunction with equity markets exist, though in common with the literature in this area the study finds that the returns on paintings are much lower and the risks much higher than in conventional financial markets.The authors would like to thank delegates to the 14th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, University of New South Wales, seminar participants at the Queensland University of Technology and Massey University, Masaki Katsuura, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. The financial assistance of a Queensland University of Technology, Faculty of Business Research Initiative Grant is also gratefully acknowledged.