阿根廷债务重组：现实困局与制度反思

自2001年主权债务违约后,阿根廷经历了2005年和2010年两次债务互换,但是,由于少数“钉子户”债权人的反对并诉诸司法程序,阿根廷债务重组陷入再次违约的重大风险。回顾阿根廷债务重组的过程以及以对冲基金为主的少数债权人对阿根廷的诉讼,可以清晰地看出阿根廷主权债务重组困境是由阿根廷自身非审慎性的债务重组机制、美国行为的双重标准以及全球主权债务重组基础机制缺失等造成的。随着重债富国问题的出现,主权债务重组中的国内外司法管辖权、私人部门与公共部门参与、集体行动条款与同等权益条款,以及合同法与法定机制等争论更加凸显,建立一个全球性主权债务重组机制是国际金融体系稳定的基础任务。     

The predictive accuracy of credit ratings: Measurement and statistical inference

Credit ratings are ordinal predictions of the default risk of an obligor. The most commonly used measure for evaluating their predictive accuracy is the Accuracy Ratio, or equivalently, the area under the ROC curve. The disadvantages of these measures are that they treat default as a binary variable, thus neglecting the timing of default events, and they fail to use all of the information available from censored observations. We present an alternative measure which is related to the Accuracy Ratio but does not suffer from these drawbacks. As a second contribution, we study statistical inference for the Accuracy Ratio and the proposed measure in the case of multiple cohorts of obligors with overlapping lifetimes. We derive methods which use more sample information and lead to tests which are more powerful than alternatives which filter just the independent part of the dataset. All procedures are illustrated in the empirical section using a dataset of S&P Credit Ratings.     

上市公司财务管理目标的选择

“股东财富最大化”与“企业价值最大化”分别作为上市公司的财务管理目标,一直深受关注。文章从上市公司的治理结构入手,重点分析我国的国情特别是上市公司的现状,得出股改后的中国选择“企业价值最大化”作为财务管理目标是必然的。     

国际铁矿石定价与中国钢铁企业语语权缺失

在历年的铁矿石谈判中,中国企业几乎失去了最大需求方应有的＂话语权＂。垄断价格形成模型和＂囚徒困境＂是我国企业丧失＂话语权＂的原因,并据此提出加强与日本、韩国的合作,结成价格谈判联盟;利用市场份额,分化卖方的寡头联盟;积极参与新的铁矿石定价体系发展铁矿石期货市场;开发国内外铁矿石资源,提高铁矿石资源掌控力;逐渐提高我国国内钢铁企业的集中度以及规范铁矿石进口企业等增强我国铁矿石企业谈判中＂话语权＂的对策。     

基于公共品资本化的地方财政激励制度研究*——土地财政如何影响公共品提供

本文以中国的城镇化为背景,运用公共品资本化原理,分析了地方土地财政制度,包括土地出让金收入制度与房地产相关税收制度,对地方公共品提供激励的传导机制。城市级面板数据的实证分析表明：土地财政对地方公共品提供具有结构性的激励效应,但该激励机制建立在土地和房产交易之上,地方财政努力程度被交易时点截然分割。改革土地财政制度,完善房地产税收体系,实现从交易型向保有型“土地溢价回收”制度转换,将有助于建立对称的、可持续的地方财政激励制度。     

A constraint-free approach to optimal reinsurance

Reinsurance is available for a reinsurance premium that is determined according to a convex premium principle H. The first insurer selects the reinsurance coverage that maximizes its expected utility. No conditions are imposed on the reinsurer's payment. The optimality condition involves the gradient of H. For several combinations of H and the first insurer's utility function, closed-form formulas for the optimal reinsurance are given. If H is a zero utility principle (for example, an exponential principle or an expectile principle), it is shown, by means of Borch's Theorem, that the optimal reinsurer's payment is a function of the total claim amount and that this function satisfies the so-called 1-Lipschitz condition. Frequently, authors impose these two conclusions as hypotheses at the outset.     

Gender Inequality in the Spanish Public Pension System

This contribution studies revenue sharing in the public pension system in Spain from a gender perspective, revealing that differences are evident in the percentage of men and women entitled to different types of pensions and in the average fiscal amount per pension for men and women. Using 2010 data, the study analyzes how labor market conditions are reflected in pension type and amount for women pensioners, yielding two important conclusions: the income of women pensioners decreases, relative to men, with age; and the degree of inequality of pensions among women is lower than that among men. These gender differences owe to the contributory character of the system, which reproduces the labor market inequalities of both genders – inequalities that ultimately derive from the social division of roles in which women remain responsible for unpaid care work. This conclusion is consistent with similar studies on other European countries and world regions.     

运用汽车生产商知识对不同类型供应商技术创新的促进作用

基于通过交叉供应商在知识创造能力和与生产商技术相似度两个维度的异质性,将供应商分为4类。采用专利数构建计量指标,探索了不同类型的供应商在技术创新中运用生产商知识的效果。非参数检验与负二项回归结果证明了供应商异质性的存在。研究结果还显示:能力弱的供应商运用生产商知识能获得更好的创新成果--无论它们与生产商技术的相似度高低与否;能力强的供应商不能通过运用生产商知识获得高水平的创新成果。     

由行星运动公共特征综合运动物体“磁场”

辩证理解牛顿第一定律,并采用牛顿综合万有引力的科学方法,由行星长期运动公共特征,综合运动物体的"磁场"。