Self serving reference points in double auctions

We present a novel approach for modelling self serving bias by way of reference dependence. Bias is modelled as a systematic individual level deviation of the endogenous reference point from the expected price of a good in a two person k-double auction. We find that bias decreases the efficiency of the model, and that efficiency is decreasing in both the level of bias and reference dependence.     

Aid,collective action and benefits to smallholders: Evaluating the World Food Program's purchase for progress pilot

Agricultural commodity markets in developing countries often operate in a constrained environment of prohibitive transaction costs. Consequently, smallholder farmers are only partly integrated into these markets, a situation that keeps them in a lower level of development equilibrium (poverty trap). Although cooperative institutional alternatives such as Farmers’ Organizations (FOs) may reduce transaction costs and revitalize agricultural production and commercialization, they rarely have been successful in fully delivering on these promises. Against this backdrop, the World Food Programmed (WFP) has recently implemented a multi-year and multi-country pilot to increase smallholder participation in commodity markets. The projects involved investing in physical and human capacities of Farmer Organizations (FOs) to aggregate commodities and add value, as well as locally purchasing food aid from the same. The combination of interventions was expected to increase the relative price of agricultural products, particularly staple crops. In this study, using Ethiopian panel survey data, we estimated the causal income and investment effects of the Ethiopian P4P intervention among smallholders. Using an entropy balancing (EB) model and semi-parametric difference-in-difference (DID) model, we show that the P4P intervention has increased per capita consumption by smallholders. Our additional analysis confirms that this effect is heterogeneous owing to elite capture within Farmer Organizations. We also find evidence of increased food consumption scores, increased investments in child schooling, and increased asset holding among program-participating smallholders relative to comparison farmers. Policy implications are discussed.     

Managerial Overconfidence,Self-Attribution Bias,and Downwardly Sticky Investment: Evidence from Korea

The extant literature on behavioral corporate finance has explored the effects of overconfidence on investment–cash flow sensitivity (ICS) to explain overinvestment, yet it has overlooked the asymmetric behavior of investments in relation to changes in cash flow levels. This study examines whether investments behave asymmetrically responding to changes in cash flows and, if so, how managerial overconfidence affects asymmetric ICS. Using a sample of KOSPI and KOSDAQ firms in Korea, we find the incidence of downwardly sticky ICS in unconstrained firms. We then find that overconfident managers encourage ICS to be stickier than their rational peers do in unconstrained firms. Finally, we find that managerial overconfidence intensified by self-attribution bias induces ICS to get even stickier, suggesting more explicit evidence of corporate investment distortions. The results of alternative tests using the asymmetric models of Homburg and Nasev (2008) are qualitatively consistent with prior results. Overall, our findings imply a higher incidence of excessive investment commitments driven by overconfident managers.     

When and how the psychologically entitled employees hide more knowledge?

The purpose of this study is to examine how psychological entitlement is associated with knowledge hiding behaviors and why some individuals, unlike others, indulge in more knowledge hiding behaviors because of entitlement tendency. Using a time lag study design, we collected data from 241 participants from hospitality sector of Pakistan. The results indicate that psychological entitlement is positively associated with knowledge hiding behaviors and this relationship is mediated by abusive supervision perceptions. Our results also show that hostile attribution bias strengthens the positive impact of psychological entitlement on abusive supervision perceptions. Moreover, the indirect effect of psychological entitlement on knowledge hiding behavior via abusive supervision perceptions is stronger for employees with high levels of hostile attribution bias than employees with low levels of hostile attribution bias.     

Foreign Investment in Emerging Markets: International Diversification or Familiarity Bias?

This study empirically tests whether foreign investors take advantage of international diversification when investing in emerging Asian markets. Using the 2007–2008 financial crisis as identification, we find that firms with higher foreign ownership had better stock returns during the financial crisis. Moreover, the diversification effect exists in five out of the eight emerging markets and is stronger in markets with a lower dynamic conditional correlation with the global market index. We also find that foreign investors prefer firms with a lower international sales ratio. In conclusion, the evidence consistently suggests that foreign investors take advantage of diversification effects.     

Threats to the Validity of Logistics and Supply Chain Management Research

To increase the relevance of logistics and supply chain academic research, this paper recommends the development and testing of middle‐range theory and practice‐level theory. Yet, there are a number of research issues that arise when academic researchers test middle‐range and practice‐level theory, both in measuring constructs and in testing theoretical relationships between constructs. Concerning the measurement of constructs, this paper recommends that academic researchers pay more attention to content validity and undertake rigorous processes to ensure content validity. In addition, academic researchers need to more explicitly define constructs as either reflective or formative. If the construct is defined as formative, then the traditional statistical approaches to validate these measurement scales are not recommended. The appropriate use of employing single‐item measures for concrete constructs is discussed. In regard to conducting hypothesis tests, research issues associated with multicollinearity and omitted variable bias are discussed. Relative weight analysis is ideal for testing theoretical models and research hypotheses when survey data are obtained, multicollinearity is present, and there are a large number of independent variables predicting a dependent variable. Thus, relative weight analysis is ideal for testing research hypotheses in logistics and supply chain management.     

The Neutrality Illusion: Biased Economics,Biased Training,and Biased Monetary Policy. Testing the Role of Ideology on FOMC Voting Behaviour

This research is trying to shed light on two myths that are usually widespread: the first one being the idea of the academic economist as a neutral scientist finding uncontestable consensual truths, thanks to uncontestable empirical methods, the second, the idea of the central banker as a Weberian neutral bureaucrat setting aside personal beliefs to act mechanically for the common good. Deconstructing this ‘neutrality illusion’, this work argues that economics is actually a divided and ideologically marked discipline despite its aim at natural-science-type-legitimacy. It argues in a related discussion that such ideological bias also impedes a purely neutral conduct of monetary policy, undermining the very idea of central bank independence. Linking these two arguments, it argues that graduate training in economics is the first place for the formation of biased preferences, because of the substantial ideological sorting that exists across universities. Using a unique database on FOMC members’ votes and ideology, the paper tests this idea empirically and despite unavoidable caveats, finds robust evidence of a systematic impact of the ideological features of their alma mater on FOMC members’ voting behaviour – impact that we found more important than the other traditional determinants of central bankers’ actions.     

Analyst earnings forecast precision and local advantage: evidence from American depositary receipt firms

Prior research has documented a finding that local analysts provide more accurate earnings forecasts than nonlocal analysts in many settings. However, little is known about local and nonlocal analysts’ relative earnings forecast abilities for ADR stocks. In this study, we find that the local advantage disappears for ADR stocks and that nonlocal analysts in fact outperform local ones in this case. We investigate the source of this ‘local disadvantage’ and find evidence against hypotheses based on accounting standards and exchange rates. We document that the local advantage decreases with increased investor interest in foreign firms, consistent with our nonlocal investors’ interest hypothesis.     

Residents’ perceptions of airport construction impacts: A negativity bias approach

Airports have significant implications for regional and local tourism development, so their impacts need to be assessed. Based on in-depth interviews with local residents, this study examined the effects of an airport development project in Mexico. Negativity bias theory was adopted as a theoretical framework to gain a fuller understanding of host communities' perceptions. In accordance with this theory, even though the economic impacts of the airport's construction are recognised as positive, its environmental and social effects on locals' everyday lives are perceived more negatively. As a result, most locals interviewed do not support the airport project. This is because, in line with negativity bias theory, when perceived negative impacts outweigh positive ones, a holistic evaluation that integrates negative and positive events will ultimately be unfavourable. Practical implications in terms of public consultation, perceived impacts and tourism development are discussed.     

Gains from international monetary policy coordination: Does it pay to be different?

In a two country world where each country has a traded and a non-traded sector and each sector has sticky prices, optimal independent policy in general cannot replicate the natural-rate allocations. There are potential welfare gains from coordination since the planner under a cooperating regime internalizes a terms-of-trade externality that independent policymakers overlook. If the countries have symmetric trading structures, however, the gains from coordination are quantitatively small. With asymmetric trading structures, the gains can be sizable since, in addition to internalizing the terms-of-trade externality, the planner optimally engineers a terms-of-trade bias that favors the country with a larger traded sector.