基于协整分析的东北区域产业结构优化与金融支持关系研究

基于1978—2003年的统计数据,采用协整关系检验法和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验法对东北地区金融发展与产业结构优化之间的关系进行了实证检验。分析结果表明东北区域产业结构优化与金融发展之间存在长期动态均衡关系及单向因果关系,即金融发展对东北区域产业结构优化具有支持作用,从而为政府经济决策提供了政策依据。     

国库集中支付操作风险产生机理的博弈分析

国库集中支付操作风险是指国库资金支付过程中出现违规操作行为的可能性。国库集中支付制度框架下财政资金支付活动是财政部门、预算单位、代理银行和人民银行共同参与的博弈过程。本文运用博弈理论首先分析国库集中支付操作风险产生的内在机理，然后剖析国库集中支付操作风险产生的外在博弈条件，最后从优化博弈条件出发，提出建立健全监督激励机制以防范国库集中支付操作风险的建议。     

Domestic Support and Border Measures for Processed Horticultural Products

In horticultural markets, trade barriers often apply to the processed products whereas domestic support applies to farm-produced raw commodities. Here we assess the effects of such trade barriers and domestic support by simulating the effects of policy reform on global processing tomato markets, which are faced with modest processed product tariffs and high domestic support in the European Union (EU). Both protection and EU subsidy drive down world welfare, but we find that reducing import tariffs for tomato products would yield greater effects on markets and larger welfare impacts outside Europe than would reductions in EU domestic support.     

构建我国进城务工人员社会保障制度体系的思考

从进城务工人员这个群体的特殊性出发，构建他们的社会保障制度必须要从我国城乡社会保障及其对接角度通盘考虑。通过建立进城务工人员双重社会保障制度，逐步实现城乡社会保障制度的对接。这既关系进城务工人员的权益问题，也关系城乡社会保障衔接问题，更关系着我国社会保障制度一体化目标的实现问题。     

基于BP网络对我国通货膨胀率的预测及其分析

本文首先由我国的CPI计算出通货膨胀率,综合分析了我国通货膨胀率和GDP增长率数据。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2008～2009年我国CPI,从而推算出2008～2009年我国通货膨胀率分别是4.99%和4.91%左右。并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

Hypothesis tests using data envelopment analysis

A substantial body of recent work has opened the way to exploring the statistical properties of DEA estimators of production frontiers and related efficiency measures. The purpose of this paper is to survey several possibilities that have been pursued, and to present them in a unified framework. These include the development of statistics to test hypotheses about the characteristics of the production frontier, such as returns to scale, input substitutability, and model specification, and also about variation in efficiencies relative to the production frontier.     

我国企业变革方向的探讨

随着知识经济新时代的到来和我国加入国际贸易组织(WTO),我国企业面临着前所未有的挑战。本文针对这一新的形势,从企业的全球化、网络化、专业化、素质化四个方面探讨了企业变革的方向。     

分布式通信流分析系统的实现

文章介绍了通信流分析以及匿名通信的研究现状,并分析了现在研究通信流分析所采用的几种流分析工具,指出他们对于匿名通信的通信流分析的不足之处,最后,提出了适应于匿名通信的分布式通信流分析系统的实现方法。     

Regional job-turnover and industrial policy. a note on a potential time pattern of regional industrial policies and their job effects - the case of the german city-state of bremen

Many regions have experienced long-run economic fluctuations generated by the life cycles of their dominant industrial clusters. During the downswings in the 1970s and 1980s, proactive structural policies were typically launched in German regions to combat job losses in their core clusters and to create new jobs in new industries. With respect to the German State of Bremen, this paper provides empirical evidence of: (1) a long-run regional downswing; (2) the potential job effects of proactive regional industrial policy programmes in terms of increasing regional employment, by safeguarding jobs in the regional core industries and creating new jobs in new growth industries; and (3) a time pattern in the job effects, which are related to the different generations of programmes.     

Economic analysis of the impact of adopting herd health control programs on smallholder dairy farms in Central Thailand

The economic impact of adopting herd health programs for mastitis and reproduction by small-scale dairy producers of Central Thailand was assessed using a policy analysis matrix (PAM). Following a reduction in the incidence of bovine disease on adopter farms, an increase in private net profits is observed. More importantly the social costs of supporting dairy farmers is reduced; the PAM effective protection coefficient was reduced by 35% for mastitis program adopters and by 44% for reproductive program adopters, indicating improved social efficiency of dairy policy. Other indicators of efficiency and policy implications are discussed.