A Classification of Dutch Manufacturing based on a Model of Innovation

Summary The paper studies the degree of homogeneity of innovative behavior in order to determine empirically an industry classification of Dutch manufacturing that can be used for policy purposes. Defining homogeneity in terms of an economic model distinguishes our classification from existing taxonomies such as those of the OECD, Pavitt and the various classifications based on a principal components analysis. We use a two-limit tobit model with sample selection, which explains the decisions by business enterprises to innovate and the impact these decisions have on the share of innovative sales. The model is estimated for eleven industries based on the Dutch Standard Industrial Classification (SBI 1993). A likelihood ratio (LR) test is then performed to test for equality of the parameters across industries. We find that Dutch manufacturing consists of three groups of industries in terms of innovative behavior, a high-tech group, a low-tech group and the industry of wood. The same pattern shows up in the three Dutch Community Innovation Surveys. The empirical part of this study has been carried out at the Centre for Research of Economic Microdata at Statistics Netherlands. The authors wish to thank Statistics Netherlands, and in particular Bert Diederen, for helping us in accessing and using the Micronoom data set. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors. The authors also wish to thank Fran?ois Laisney, Patrick Waelbroek and participants at presentations in Maastricht, Strasbourg, Leuven and Lille for their helpful comments. The first author acknowledges financial support from METEOR.     

An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Antidumping Sunset Review Decisions

This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the U.S. antidumping sunset review process required under WTO commitments. The econometric models study determinants of decisions by three U.S. actors: the petitioning industry, the Department of Commerce (DOC), and the International Trade Commission (ITC). Domestic industries facing potential vigorous competition seem to use sunset reviews to maintain current high domestic profits. U.S. governmental institutions use criteria broadly consistent with their legal obligations. Exports involving Chinese firms may face negative bias in the ITC process. JEL no. F1, F13     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Industrial Policy and Technology Diffusion: Evidence from Paper Making Machinery in Indonesia

In this paper, we analyze the diffusion and adoption of paper making machinery in the Indonesian pulp and paper industry, from 1923 till 2000. We develop a machine level index of technological sophistication (mach), which measures the technological distance of each paper machine to the world technological frontier. The data reveal a pattern of rapid technological catch up. But catch up was not an industrywide phenomenon. Some modern firms installed state-of-the-art machinery, while others installed older vintages. The paper argues that industrial policy has played an important role in the speed and nature of diffusion of paper making machinery.     

试论产业政策的独立性

干预市场经济运行已经成为现代政府实现资源优化配置的重要手段,国家对经济的干预形式,一般被认为有两种:一种是宏观调控;另一种是微观规制。而产业政策是否可以并入宏观调控或微观规制,抑或它是一种独立的经济政策?目前学术界对此看法不一。文章通过分析微观规制、产业政策和宏观调控三者在实施的目的、作用的方式、作用的对象以及理论基础等方面存在的显著差别,说明了产业政策可以成为一种独立的国家干预经济的形式。     

基于VAR 的我国预期通货膨胀率的估计问题研究

在当前影响物价变动的因素愈加广泛和复杂的背景下,如何准确把握未来通货膨胀预期走势进而有效调控通货膨胀至关重要。本文首先通过建立附加前瞻性政策变量的 VAR 预期模型, 根据 2002 年第一季度至 2014 年第三季度的通货膨胀率、实际利率和产出偏差的实际值与预期目 标值的偏差值季度数据,采用卡尔曼滤波递归算法得出我国的通货膨胀预期的估计结果。随后基 于理性预期理论对初步估计结果进行检验。研究结果表明,采用前三个月实际利率、实际通货膨 胀率的算术平均作为下期中国人民银行调控目标的预期值是较为符合我国情况的选择。     

服务国家政治外交战略的政府主导型展会促进城市发展的实证分析——以中国—东盟博览会为例

以东博会为例,对服务国家政治外交战略的政府主导型展会促进城市发展进行了定性分析和实证检验。此类展会在政治收益方面能提升城市的国家战略地位,获得发展资源的投入;在社会收益方面能提升城市居民素质发展、城市知名度和就业水平;在经济收益方面通过促进宏观经济增长和对外开放、带动产业发展及调整产业结构实现,其中展会质量比规模更能促进经济发展和开放水平提升,展会不仅带动第三产业发展而且能够跨产业实现带动作用。     

Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

In a two-country model, we consider the implications of monetary and fiscal policy coordination for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that the optimal regime is one of monetary and fiscal policy coordination under flexible exchange rates. In the context of the European Community, this suggests that the desire to fix exchange rates may not be costless. In addition, we show that fiscal coordination requires a relatively high degree of flexibility in fiscal policy. This result suggests that limits on the flexibility of fiscal policies, as suggested in the Delors Report, may hinder macroeconomic stabilization.     

Social protection and regional convergence in a European Monetary Union

This paper addresses convergence in social protection and GDP in a European Economic and Monetary Union. We evaluate the impact of recently proposed EC social minimum requirements on regional convergence within the EC. Subsequently, we analyze a system of differentiated social norms as a means of raising social protection in countries with lower social standards.     

论可持续消费行为转变的途径(综述)

可持续消费行为转变已成为国际上可持续消费政策研究的热点。但转变消费者行为是一项艰巨而复杂的任务。通过说服、试错、多样性模仿形式学习和打破"不可持续"的习惯可以在一定程度上转变不可持续的消费行为。此外,政策选择的干预也可以促进消费者行为的转变。