我国不同部门服务贸易对经济增长的影响

本文利用我国1982-2005年不同部门服务贸易的进口、出口和GDP数据,根据协整和向量误差修正模型理论,分析了三者之间的关系。结论表明:不同部门三者之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系,短期偏离向长期调整的速度较快,且出口是经济增长的Granger原因。     

人民币实际有效汇率变动对中部六省进口的影响

通过对中部六省1994—2012年的进口额和地区生产总值及人民币实际有效汇率年度数据进行时间序列的协整回归分析和面板数据的协整分析,得出如下结论:人民币汇率、进口额、地区生产总值间存在长期均衡关系,并且进口额与汇率负相关,与地区生产总值正相关。这与传统的"升值增加进口"不符。在结论的基础上,提出如下建议:调整企业内部结构和产业结构;优化进口结构;保持汇率稳定。     

中国农业现代化与产业结构调整对城市化进程影响的实证研究

根据我国1978-2011年的样本数据,采用主成分分析方法设定相关变量,据此建立向量误差修正模型(VEC),并基于该模型,对城市化、农业现代化、产业结构三者之间的关系进行脉冲分析和方差分析。研究表明:城市化、农业现代化、产业结构三者之间存在长期均衡的协整关系,农业现代化与产业结构均是城市化的Granger原因,表明农业现代化的发展与产业结构的调整对城市化进程具有明显的促进作用,从短期看,农业现代化的发展对城市化进程的影响明显要大于产业结构调整对城市化进程的影响;从长期看,产业结构的调整对城市化进程具有明显的持续影响。     

高压涡轮工作叶片伸长量测量误差分析

高压涡轮工作叶片伸长量超差,会导致叶片的报废率上升。为解决这一问题,本文通过试验对比发现,中航工业沈阳黎明航空发动机集团有限责任公司内的测量数据比A厂的测量数据平均偏大0.024mm,该结论说明测量系统误差范围过小,以及测量工具的不合理,是导致高压涡轮工作叶片不合格的主要原因。在本文的研究中,对伸长量超差的1000多片高涡叶片制定了合理可行修理方案,挽救了大批叶片,增加了大修修理效益。     

可校正多普勒频移的多相差分调制解调器

伴随开放,外贸对国家经济现状和经济发展速度的影响会越来越大。开放和发展会带来经济格局的变革,进出口总额强劲增长会加速国际经济环境质的调整,企业生存和竞争的原动力推动着这些变化,WTO和电子商务则催生着这些变化。传统的外贸经营模式、体制,面临适者生存,不进则退的选择。主动介入物流的多个环节,与制造业有效联手,利用自身信息、人才、市场优势,主导研发,不断创新,不停顿地开拓新的利润空间,同时,充分重视并利用知识产权保护手段,应该是外贸企业无法回避的新机遇和挑战。     

消费和投资与经济增长关系的实证分析

中国目前正处于“外忧内患”的时期,美国的次贷危机使得全球经济恶化,通过外需刺激经济增长非常有限,同时内需也相当不足。面对危机,中国要确保今后几年经济呈现良性循环发展,温家宝总理在2009年政府工作报告中指出：坚持扩大内需方针,调整投资和消费的关系,促进经济增长由主要依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变。文章主要通过建立计量经济分析模型,实证分析投资需求和消费需求与经济增长的关系。     

Testing the induced innovation hypothesis: an error correction model of South African agriculture

This paper applies cointegration techniques to a model of induced innovation based on the two-stage constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function. This approach results in direct tests of the inducement hypothesis, which are applied to data for South African commercial agriculture for the period 1947–1991. South African data is used because the policy changes have been substantial enough that the factor and price ratios have turning-points, rather than being monotonie. The time series properties of the variables are checked, cointegration is established, and an error correction model (ECM) constructed, allowing factor substitution to be separated from technological change. Finally, the ECM formulation is subjected to causality tests, which show that both the factor price ratios and R&D and extension expenditures are Granger-prior to the factor-saving biases of technological change. Thus, each stage of the analysis corroborates the inducement hypothesis. However, straightforward price-inducement is only part of the explanation of changes in factor ratios. Policy-induced innovation, in response to tax concessions and subsidised credit, is also present.     

体制转轨时期政府失灵的原因与对策浅探

通过分析和研究转轨时期政府失灵的原因，提出矫正政府失灵的措施，目的在于使人们更好地认识体制转轨中市场调节和政府调节的关系，把握好政府干预的范围、方式和力度等，以减少或减轻政府失灵，提高政府干预经济的效率。     

Reassessing the Costs and Benefits of Imposing Capital Controls: The Case of Chile (1991–98)

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to highlight some of the less-mentioned costs and benefits of imposing capital controls (in particular, on inflows) in lower income countries (LICs). The impact of controls on the effectiveness of conventional policy tools, as well as the limitations of the latter, are studied in the context of Chile's imposition of unremunerated reserve requirements (URRs) in the early 1990s. Then, using better data and a slightly different specification from earlier studies, an error-correction model for Chile's real exchange rate (RER) is set up with a view to assessing controls' impact thereon. The key finding, contrary to earlier studies, is that controls did depreciate the real exchange rate in the short-run. At the same time, an enhanced controls variable (“the effective” tax implied by the reserve requirement, a la Gallego et al., 1999) was seen to possess an inverse relationship with the equilibrium real exchange rate, suggesting the possibility of controls having facilitated an equilibrium RER appreciation in the long-run.

RESUMEN. El propósito de este documento es esclarecer en cierta medida algunos de los costos beneficios mencionados con menor frecuencia, resultantes de la imposición de controles de capital (especialmente sobre los flujos de entrada de capital) en países con menor renta (LICs–lower income countries). El impacto de los controles sobre la efectividad de las herramientas inherentes a las políticas convencionales, así como la limitación de los últimos han sido estudiados en el contexto de la imposición chilena sobre las exigencias establecidas para las reservas no remuneradas (URRs) a comienzo de los años 1990s. En ese entonces, utilizando una fuente de datos más apropiada y especificaciones levemente distintas a las usadas en estudios anteriores, elaboramos un modelo de error-corrección para la tasa real cambiaria chilena (RER–real exchange rate), con el objeto de evaluar el impacto ejercido por los controles. El descubrimiento clave, contrariamente a lo encontrado en los estudios anteriores, muestra una variable de control mejorada (el impuesto “efectivo” inherente a las exigencias de la reserva, a la Gallego et al., 1999), que se observó tenía una relación con el equilibrio de la tasa cambiaria real, sugiriendo por ende que, a largo plazo, existía la posibilidad de que los controles facilitasen una apreciación RER equilibrada.

RESUMO. Este estudo pretende destacar alguns dos custos e benefícios, pouco divulgados, sobre o controle da imposição de capital (particularmente, das entradas) nos países de baixa renda (LICs). O impacto do controle na eficácia dos instrumentos políticos convencionais bem como as limitações destes instrumentos são estudados no contexto da imposição do Chile dos depósitos compulsórios não remunerados (URRs), no início dos anos 90. Então, utilizando dados melhores e uma especificação um pouco diferente de estudos anteriores, um modelo de correção de erros para a taxa de câmbio real do Chile (RER) é estipulada, visando uma avaliação do impacto do controle, a partir deste momento. A descoberta principal, contrária aos primeiros estudos, é que o controle, definitivamente, deprecia a taxa de câmbio real a curto prazo. Ao mesmo tempo, uma variável de controle aumentada (um imposto “efetivo” implícito no depósito compulsório, conforme Gallego et al., 1999) parece conter uma relação contrária à taxa de câmbio real de equilíbrio, sugerindo a pos-sibilidade de que o controle tenha facilitado uma estimativa do equilíbrio da RER a longo prazo.     

中国能源需求的估计与预测模拟

本文模拟了1953-2005年间中国的能源需求函数，并在模拟基础上进行预测分析。研究结果表明：20世纪80年代以后，中国的能源使用效率明显提高，但中国的能源使用效率对能源需求的影响小于国民收入对能源需求的影响；另外，中国人口也是影响能源需求的一个显著因素，能源价格对能源需求的影响不显著；最后，在对中国长期能源需求进行了预测和模拟的基础上为中国未来一段时期内减缓能源需求增长提出了政策建议。