我国黄金期货市场价格发现与套期保值功能——基于ARDL-ECM模型

文章收集了2011-2013年的黄金期货和现货价格数据,采用ARDL-ECM模型分析我国黄金期货价格和现货价格之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究表明:我国黄金期货市场具有完美且有效的套期保值功能,但尚不具有价格发现功能,其运行效率有待提高。     

扭曲的增值税制及其矫正

与国际通行的增值税制相比,我国增值税制存在着与营业税分立、非全面性、半消费型、税率繁杂、有限出口退税、重复征税等扭曲性,矫正之策是,制定《增值税法》,全面推行营业税改征增值税,全面建立完全消费型增值税,并实行增值税的统一征管。     

改革开放以来影响广东省外贸出口因素的实证分析

本文分析了广东省外贸出口与进口、FDI、出口对象国的经济增长及人民币名义汇率等影响因素的长期均衡关系,然后分析了短期中广东省外贸出口量对各影响因素波动的反应。得出结论:长期中,广东省出口额与外国收入、进口额、人民币名义汇率之间存在着正相关关系,而短期内进口额和人民币名义汇率对出口影响较大。     

An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach

This paper estimates time specific values for China's long-run equilibrium exchange rate and develops measures of the direction and extent of misalignment based on a reduced-form real effective exchange rate (REER) model. An appropriately specified long-run equilibrium model is estimated and tested following Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedures, which is then used to construct an estimated time path for long-run equilibrium exchange rate values.Unit root tests indicated that each series can be considered as I(1) and that there was one cointegrating relationship linking the RMB series with its “fundamentals” – openness, money supply, productivity and government spending – with long-run elasticities of (0.41), (0.97), (0.51) and (0.75), respectively. The estimated error-correction model of REER determination showed that during China's latest exchange rate regime (from 2005:Q3) the RMB was undervalued by an average of 6.7 percent, which is modest compared to related studies.Estimation of the associated short-run error correction model shows that the error correction term has a statistically significant value of 0.85, implying that the actual real effective exchange rates would converge relatively quickly (just over one quarter, on average) towards their long-run equilibrium level in the absence of central bank intervention.     

Estimating multimodal public transport mode shares in Athens,Greece

We analyze market shares for each public transport mode in total public transport ridership for the multimodal public transportation system of Athens, Greece. This analysis provides useful information for making investment decisions concerning the public transport infrastructure and for allocating subsidies. Due to the non-stationary properties of the data, cointegration techniques are applied to investigate the long run equilibrium relationships. Error Correction Models are implemented to estimate short run dynamics as well as the speed of adjustment from the short to the long run. Results suggest that fare and GDP are the main determinants of the public transport mode shares both in the short and in the long run. Findings also indicate the role of total ridership fluctuations in explaining variations in public transport mode shares.     

Consumption smoothing in Russia1

Using a panel from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1994–2004), this paper investigates to what extent Russian households have been able to maintain their living standards while suffering income shocks. Consumption smoothing is modelled by means of an equilibrium correction mechanism, which disentangles short‐run dynamics and long‐run equilibrium adjustments. GMM estimation is used to control for individual household effects in the presence of dynamics. Additionally, we differentiate between food and non‐food consumption, positive and negative shocks, rural and urban areas, and several levels of poverty risk. We find that dynamics are important in the consumption equation, and that estimates are sensitive to imputation errors in home food production. No strong claims can be made regarding heterogeneity in smoothing behaviour.     

高校特困生心理特征及矫正策略

高校特困生是大学生中的弱势群体,由于经济拮据,容易产生自卑、迷茫、孤独、敏感、多疑、敌对、偏执、焦虑等心理问题。本文通过调查分析,提出积极开展心理健康教育,建立多层面的立体交叉的心理咨询与治疗体系,完善经济资助机制,丰富校园文化等矫正策略。     

On the finite sample behavior of testing whether new is better than used of a specified age

Hollander, Park and Proschan (1986) proposed a test of new is better than used of a specified age. It is based on large sample normality of the test statistic. There is, however, no study in the literature on its actual size for small and moderate sample sizes. To shed some lights on this, the results of a Monte Carlo simulation study as well as two real data examples are reported and these indicate that the test can have a quite liberal size, especially for small to moderate sample sizes. In order to improve on this weakness, a modified test is proposed and studied. It is noticed that this modified test seems to over-correct the original test to an extent that it becomes unduly conservative sometimes. Hence we propose another modification that combines the original test and the modified test turns out to have its size quite close to the nominal level and is therefore preferable to both the original and modified tests.     

城市旅游经营效率评价模型研究

目前中国的城市旅游发展存在一种盲目扩张的现象，部分城市想通过扩大旅游业的投入（如大量兴建五星级酒店）来获取更多的旅游产出（收入），衡量一个城市旅游投入与旅游产出的比例关系是否合理是值得深入探讨的一个问题。因此本文构建了基于DEA方法的城市旅游投入产出效率即城市旅游经营效率进行评价模型，在模型中引入了修正系数的概念，以对不同区域的城市由于发展环境的不同造成的旅游产出的误差进行修正。最后对评价模型的适用进行了总结，并对未来的研究进行了展望。     

Modelling the spot prices of various coffee types

We investigate long-run relationships among the spot prices of four coffee types. Two cointegrating vectors emerge: one between the prices of Arabica coffee varieties, and the other one between Unwashed Arabicas and Robusta. A persistence profile analysis shows a more rapid adjustment to equilibrium for the first compared to the second vector due to the fact that the former involves the Arabica coffees, which are more homogeneous. Adjustment is relatively fast, implying that economic forces act rapidly and discrepancies in the equilibrium relationships are short-lived. We also find evidence of non-linear adjustment back to equilibrium; when prices are too high, adjustment takes place at a slower rate than when they are too low.