Unstable Inflation Targets

This paper studies long‐run inflation targets and stability in an imperfect information environment. When central banks set an inflation target that is not fully communicated, agents draw inferences about inflation from recent data and remain alert to structural change by forming expectations from a forecasting model that is estimated via discounted least squares. Inflation targets can lead agents' beliefs to depart from rational expectations through two channels. First, implementing a higher inflation target can lead to overshooting. Second, there can be nearly self‐fulfilling inflation, disinflation, or deflation that arises as an endogenous response to shocks. Policy implications for implementing a higher target without deanchoring expectations are discussed.     

Price discrimination and efficient matching

This paper considers the problem of a monopoly matchmaker that uses a schedule of entrance fees to sort different types of agents on the two sides of a matching market into exclusive meeting places, where agents randomly form pairwise matches. We make the standard assumption that the match value function exhibits complementarities, so that matching types at equal percentiles maximizes total match value and is efficient. We provide necessary conditions and sufficient conditions for the revenue-maximizing sorting to be efficient. These conditions require the match value function, modified to incorporate the incentive cost of eliciting private type information, to exhibit complementarities in types.JEL Clalssification Numbers C7, D4We thank Jonathan Levin, Tracy Lewis, and the seminar audience at University of California at Los Angeles, University of British Columbia, Duke University, and 2003 Econometric Society North American Summer Meeting for comments and suggestions. We are also grateful for helpful suggestions from the referees and the Editor     

Do NBFCs propagate real shocks?

Notwithstanding a smaller share of total loans vis-à-vis commercial banks, we investigate a possible role of Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) in propagating a real shock to the rest of the economy. Our two-sector model captures emerging economy characteristics such as NBFC borrowings from commercial banks, heterogeneities in financial constraints, and labour market friction faced by firms. Our theoretical and simulation results, using Indian parameters, indicate that an idiosyncratic shock (i.e., higher realization of the failed firms) and a sectoral productivity shock (in the sector financed by NBFCs) increase the interest rate charged by the banks, and the unemployment rate while reducing the real wages and per capita capital formation. However, the reverse happens given a structural shock, assumed as an increase in the average number of failed firms. Early detection of such shocks and quick policy intervention are required to provide a cushion for capital formation and job creation.     

家长式领导对双元创新的影响：与企业战略匹配

文章依据159家高科技企业的问卷调查数据,基于防守者、前瞻者和分析者的企业战略分类,对家长式领导与企业战略的匹配关系进行了实证研究,发现在不同的企业战略下家长式领导对双元创新影响不同:防守者战略下,仁慈领导对探索式创新有负向影响;前瞻者战略下,德行领导对挖掘式创新有正向影响;分析者战略下,威权领导对挖掘式创新有负向影响,仁慈领导对挖掘式创新有正向影响,德行领导对探索式创新有正向影响。     

双边市场中交易配比的机制与效率—基于全球最大专业市场的研究

本文基于对全球最大的专业市场———义乌“中国小商品城”市场经营户、客商及相关主体所作的万余份问卷调查,对双边市场中交易配比、外部性和代理人数量关系的理论进行了经验分析。结果表明,采购商数量的增加会促使其提高采购规模和降低采购频率,且显著地与经营户的年均销售额、销售倍增数正相关;电子商务平台的应用减少了进入实体市场采购的客商比重,买卖双方之间具有较为显著的交叉正外部性和群内负外部性。同时,本研究结果还显示表征市场特征的产品质量、经营环境、电子商务、物流配送等变量与市场外部性强度呈正相关关系,专业市场本身品牌的塑造和经营户自属品牌的建设对于增强买卖双方进入中间交易平台具有较强的正效应。     

基于适应性管理视域的森林生态系统服务主导因子研究——以大小兴安岭森林生态功能区为例

基于适应性管理应用到森林生态系统管理的管理模式,以黑龙江省大小兴安岭森林生态功能区为例,利用主成分分析法从气候调节、生态保持、产品供给和休闲服务4个方面分析影响森林生态系统服务功能的主导因子及构成各个影响因子的核心指标。经研究发现产品供给和休息服务对森林生态系统服务功能的短期影响较大。其中,气候调节和生态保持则属于长期影响因素,对森林生态系统服务功能的短期影响较小。最后,在上述分析的基础上提出适应气候变化,改善生态环境;调整林产品供给结构,加强非林木产品供给能力;增强森林生态服务,扩大森林游憩影响;协调森林生态系统内部关系,提高森林生态系统服务质量等建议。