Escape dynamics: A continuous-time approximation

We extend a continuous-time approximation approach to the analysis of escape dynamics in economic models with constant gain adaptive learning. This approach is based on the application of the results of continuous-time version of large deviations theory to the linear diffusion approximation of the original discrete-time dynamics under learning. We characterize escape dynamics by analytically deriving the most probable escape point and mean escape time. The approximation is tested on the Phelps problem of a government controlling inflation while adaptively learning a misspecified Phillips curve, studied previously by Sargent (1999) and Cho et al. (2002) (henceforth, CWS), among others. We compare our results with simulations extended to very low values of the constant gain and show that, for the lowest gains, our approach approximates simulations relatively well. We express reservations regarding the applicability of any approach based on large deviations theory to characterizing escape dynamics for economically plausible values of constant gain in the model of CWS when escapes are not rare. We show that for these values of the gain it is possible to derive first passage times for learning dynamics reduced to one dimension without resort to large deviations theory. This procedure delivers mean escape time results that fit the simulations closely. We explain inapplicability of large deviations theory by insufficient averaging near the point of self-confirming equilibrium for relatively large gains which makes escapes relatively frequent, suggest the changes which might help approaches based on the theory to work better in this gain interval, and describe a simple heuristic method for determining the range of constant gain values for which large deviations theory could be applicable.     

The construction of a composite index for general satisfaction in Turkey and the investigation of its determinants

The goal of public enterprises is to increase the wealth and happiness of individuals. This target lets them make the investment to fulfill these expectations. However, not all citizens in a country might have the same opportunities. This case requires comparing citizens who live in cities with regard to satisfaction levels. This study consists of two stages. In the first stage, a composite index called the General Satisfaction Index (GSI), which aims to explain the satisfaction levels of citizens living in cities, is obtained by using the Benefit of the Doubt method. Contrary to the previous studies, the satisfaction indicators based on the emotions and senses of citizens are used to construct a composite index. Satisfaction indicators’ contribution to GSI is ensured using the minimum weights. In the second stage of this study, socioeconomic determinants of GSI are investigated in both countrywide and regions by using regularized regression methods. In the result of the regression analyze, it is confirmed that there are different socioeconomic determinants of satisfaction levels for countrywide and each region. For this reason, it is proposed that policymakers should follow different politicizes in each region to increase the satisfaction levels of citizens in the country.     

Exploring the mismatch between credit ratings and loss-given-default: A credit risk approach

It is commonly observed that high grade loans with better ratings are often associated with low recoveries if they default (i.e. with relatively high loss-given-default (LGD)). To address the mismatch problem, this paper proposes a credit risk approach by minimizing LGD for higher rated loans as a risk-rating matching standard in the sense that the decreasing LGD from creditors’ perspective is associated with higher credit rating for the borrower. This standard forces customers’ credit rating of each grade to be optimally determined in correspondence to its LGD, which means the LGD of high grade loans tends to be low. The approach is then tested using three credit datasets from China, i.e. credit data from 2044 farmers, 2157 small private businesses and 3111 SMEs. The empirical results show that the proposed approach indeed guides the way to solve the mismatch phenomenon between credit ratings and LGDs in the existing credit rating literature. By optimally determining credit ratings, the findings derived from this paper help provide a valuable reference for bankers, and bond investors to manage their credit risk.     

基于供应链的物流企业战略匹配能力研究

文中通过回顾之前对物流能力所作的研究及相关理论背景的基础上，认为物流企业战略匹配能力是企业物流能力的一个重要方面，并做了简单的探讨分析，丰富了对物流企业能力的研究。     

电子商务技能型人才需求与高职教育培养匹配研究

产业转型升级发展对专业技能型人才的需求发生变化,作为技能型人才重要培养主体的高职院校,面临着如何培养新时代高素质技能人才的挑战。通过招聘大数据挖掘电子商务技能型人才的需求特征,同时调研相关高职院校电子商务专业人才培养现状,分析供需匹配度。结果表明:电商企业需要德技并修的高素质技能型人才,而高职院校的课程体系以专业技能、商务技能等硬技能教学为主,忽视综合素养软技能教育,同时,高职院校电子商务专业课程开设未能根据行业技术更新和产业转型发展及时调整。基于研究结果,从课程体系建设、校企合作深化、工匠精神培育等方面提出相关建议。     

Reluctant Generalised Additive Modelling

Sparse generalised additive models (GAMs) are an extension of sparse generalised linear models that allow a model's prediction to vary non-linearly with an input variable. This enables the data analyst build more accurate models, especially when the linearity assumption is known to be a poor approximation of reality. Motivated by reluctant interaction modelling, we propose a multi-stage algorithm, called reluctant generalised additive modelling (RGAM), that can fit sparse GAMs at scale. It is guided by the principle that, if all else is equal, one should prefer a linear feature over a non-linear feature. Unlike existing methods for sparse GAMs, RGAM can be extended easily to binary, count and survival data. We demonstrate the method's effectiveness on real and simulated examples.     

Research on a diagnostic system of rural vitalization based on development elements in China

In 2017, the Chinese government implemented a national strategy of "Rural Vitalization" that sought to realize full-scale rural vitalization. However, is it possible to achieve vitalization for all the villages in China? How should their development potential be determined? This paper identified and analyzed the "element-composite" messages of rural development based on 99 exemplary sites of “Beautiful Villages” in China. Combined with the projection pursuit classification method, a diagnostic system of rural vitalization was established; then, Dehua County was taken as a case study for an in-depth analysis. Based on national data analysis, the final results indicated that livelihood resources (LR), agglomeration effects (AE), location and transportation (LT), cultural/natural landscapes (CN), and economic circumstance (EC) are essential elements for successful rural development. Additionally, EC was the only exogenous element, while the remaining elements were endogenous. Furthermore, the villages with better EC presented urbanization rates of 38∼82 % and Engel coefficients of 29∼41 % in their counties; exemplary sites lacking LR, CN, LT, and AE account for 13.13 %, 19.19 %, 26.26 %, and 60.61 % respectively, so the indispensability of these elements decreases progressively in sequence. Only 2 % of villages rely on single element for success, therefore, the composite pattern of development element was also critical; 10 out of 16 types were found to successfully facilitate village development, among which, the type of R-a-L-C (32.32 %) and R-A-L-C (15.15 %) were considered as the greatest potential patterns for vitalization. Finally, by means of the diagnostic system, the ratio of representative villages for high-low potential in Dehua County is evenly split; then, development paths, and land use policies that match with paths were proposed, on the basis of development potential and “element-composite” condition of themselves.     

Waste of money or growth opportunity: The causal effect of EU subsidies on Hungarian SMEs

Although EU subsidies aiming at economic development play a pivotal role not only for Hungary but for the entire European Union as well, there is a debate regarding their effectiveness in the literature. This paper investigates the impact of direct economic development subsidies extended in the context of Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund as part of the 2007–2013 programming period of the European Union on Hungarian micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Based on a micro database, we evaluate the impact of corporates’ first subsidies on various performance indicators, using a combination of propensity score matching and fixed effects panel regression. According to our results, economic development funds had a significant positive effect on the number of employees, sales revenue, gross value added and, in some cases, operating profit. However, the labour productivity of enterprises was not significantly affected by any of the support schemes. Furthermore, by explicitly comparing non-refundable subsidies (grants) and refundable assistance (financial instruments), we find that there is no significant difference in the effectiveness of the two types of subsidy.     

Does managerial ability matter for cross-border M&As: Evidence from Chinese listed firms

With the deepening of economic globalization, cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMAs) are increasingly becoming an important choice of transnational investment, and more Chinese firms are becoming involved in them. However, the success rate of CBMAs for firms in China seems to be lower than that for firms in other countries. Using data on the CBMA deals initiated by Chinese A-share listed enterprises from 2003 to 2018, we examine the association between managerial ability and the likelihood of completing CBMAs. The empirical results show that the average impact of managerial ability on the likelihood of completing CBMAs is positive. Furthermore, by taking heterogeneity of the ownership structure into account, we find that the positive effect of managerial ability is significant only for non-state-owned enterprises. Moreover, the results from the mediation model show that relaxing financing constraints is a possible channel by which managerial ability affects the likelihood of completing CBMAs. Our results are robust to various model specifications.     

疫情对经济的影响与“灾害适应型经济”的转型

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对中国乃至世界经济产生了巨大的冲击。疫情的冲击颠覆了传统经济学的认知，需从理论上对经济衰退的原因和机制重新认识，特别是对疫情之下“非常态经济”及其与“常态经济”之间的关系加以研究；疫情的冲击亦暴露出现有的经济系统存在的问题，需要推动经济的转型，打造“灾害适应型经济”。本文基于辩证思想，从负面和正向两个方面来研究疫情对经济的影响，充分发掘新动能，利用新机会，推动中国经济向“灾害适应型经济”转型，实现中国经济的可持续、高质量发展。