Noise trading and prime and score premiums

This paper documents that a common element drives the time-series variation of the premium pricing of Primes and Scores. I argue that this common element is noise trading. The noise trading model of Delong, Shleifer, Summers and Waldmann (1990) predicts that returns on assets that are predominantly traded by noise traders will be correlated, since the misperceptions of noise traders are cross-sectionally correlated. Consistent with the noise trading hypothesis, changes in the average premium of Primes and Scores, which are predominantly traded by individual investors, are correlated with both changes in average discounts of closed-end funds and small firms returns. These empirical facts provide additional evidence that noise traders can affect security prices.     

Price reversal,transaction costs,and arbitrage profits in the real estate securities market

This paper studies the return reversals of exchange traded real estate securities using an arbitrage portfolio approach. Using the approach, we find that there exist significant return reversals in such securities. These return reversals could be exploited by arbitrage traders if trading costs can be ignored. However, the arbitrage profits disappear after deducting trading costs and taking into account the implicit cost of bid-ask spread. Thus, the real estate securities market is efficient at weekly intervals in the sense that one could not exploit the price reversals via some simple trading rules.     

The Walk‐down to Beatable Analyst Forecasts: The Role of Equity Issuance and Insider Trading Incentives*

It has been alleged that firms and analysts engage in an "earnings‐guidance game" where analysts first issue optimistic earnings forecasts and then "walk down" their estimates to a level that firms can beat at the official earnings announcement. We examine whether the walk‐down to beatable targets is associated with managerial incentives to sell stock after earnings announcements on the firm's behalf (through new equity issuance) or from their personal accounts (through option exercises and stock sales). Consistent with these hypotheses, we find that the walk‐down to beatable targets is most pronounced when firms or insiders are net sellers of stock after an earnings announcement. These findings provide new insights on the impact of capital‐market incentives on communications between managers and analysts.     

On the Rationality of the Post-Announcement Drift

This paper demonstrates that a post-announcement earnings drift, which is often advanced as an example of market irrationality, can arise even if traders act rationally on their information. Specifically, we show that in the presence of share supply variations which are unrelated to information, there is a positive correlation between the unexpected component of current public signals and future price changes. Such a correlation arises from the fact that while prices reveal private information that cannot be found in public signals, non-information based trading distorts the information content of prices relative to the implications of both private and public information. Under these circumstances, markets may appear semi-strong inefficient and slow to respond to earnings announcements even though information is processed in a timely and efficient manner. Our findings correspond well with previously documented empirical evidence and suggest that the robustness of earnings-based anomalies may be rational outcomes of varying uncertain share supply.     

A Theory of Menu Federalism: Decentralization by Political Agreement

This paper analyzes agreements between governments that determine the division of policy-making power between central and regional governments. Our analysis demonstrates that initial circumstances and political risks affect the degree of centralization that will be adopted, and that asymmetric forms of federalism are often consequences of ongoing negotiations between regional and central governments over the assignment of policy-making authority. We analyze three settings where gains from constitutional exchange may exist: (i) the under-centralized state, (ii) the over-centralized state, and (iii) the constitutional convention. In each case, an asymmetric form of federalism is the predicted outcome, although the degree of asymmetry differs according to starting point. Modern and historical examples are used to illustrate the relevance of our analysis.     

国际黄金市场发展状况及其趋势分析

在新的国际货币体系下，黄金的货币性虽然被取消，但由于黄金本身所拥有的保值性、安全性、流动性等属性，使其最根本的金融属性并没有降低。全世界40多个大小不一的黄金市场作为金融市场的构成部分，近10年来有了更快的发展。分析各主要黄金市场发展的现状，研究其发展趋势，对于研究其未来的发展路径以及对金融市场的作用具有相当重要的意义。     

交易所大宗交易流动性折价研究——来自沪深交易所的经验证据

随着证券市场规模的扩大及机构投资者规模的壮大，机构投资者对市场流动性的需求日益剧增，大宗交易制度是满足投资者流动性需求的制度性创新。由于大宗交易的数量较大，其交易价格有别于正常交易规模的价格。本文利用沪深交易所的大宗交易数据实证探讨大宗交易价格及其影响因素。研究结果表明，大部分大宗交易价格低于当日收盘价格，呈现流动性折价现象，折价率达到1．27％：研究还发现，折价水平还受交易数量、正常交易时间段股票流动性水平、市场流动性水平及股价波幅等因素影响。     

市场透明度改变影响交易者行为吗？

基于中国证券市场2003年12月8日提高市场透明度这一事件，本文对市场透明度提高对交易者行为的影响进行了研究。结果发现：市场透明度提高明显改变了交易者的交易策略，主要表现为交易者整体交易指令的激进程度降低，其中交易者减少提交市价指令，增加了撤单的频率。研究还发现，市场透明度提高导致交易者提交价格增进的限价指令的比例下降，而提交小额交易指令的比例增加，同时交易者对交易环境的改变具有学习与逐步适应的能力。     

全球化背景的加工贸易模式和发展历程观察

对墨西哥、新加坡、日本、韩国、印度5个国家和我国的苏州、珠三角地区以及重庆加工贸易模式发展历程和特色效益的分析表明,由于各个国家和地区自身资源禀赋和技术条件等方面存在差异,在不同的历史阶段,面对不同的国际政治经济环境,采取不完全相同的经济发展战略和政策,各种加工贸易模式具有各自的特点。     

Why are African commodity exchanges languishing? A case study of the Zambian Agricultural Commodity Exchange

Food price volatility and high transactions costs remain major problems in African food markets. These persistent problems provide a strong theoretical justification for the development of commodity exchanges. However, the majority of African commodity exchanges remain underdeveloped. Through a case study of the Zambian Agricultural Commodity Exchange (ZAMACE), this article explores why agricultural commodity exchanges in the region have thus far failed to develop into sustainable trading platforms and identifies the most important changes needed to enhance their performance.