基于系统动力学的房地产调控政策动态仿真模型

从供需两个方面综合分析了土地政策、税收政策和金融政策对我国房地产市场的影响路径和传导机理。运用系统动力学分析原理,构建了房地产调控政策动态分析模型,并利用计算机软件进行仿真模拟。对拟实施政策效果进行比较分析的结果显示:土地政策对我国房地产市场的影响最大,税收政策对房地产供给市场的影响比对需求市场的影响大;同时调节利率工具和信贷工具变量,金融政策仍对我国房地产市场的影响不大。最后提出,我国应将调控供给作为调控房地产市场的重点。     

Foreign players,team production,and technical efficiency: Evidence from European soccer

As on-field success is nowadays the main objective of European soccer clubs, good management needs to extract the highest sport success from the squad talent at hand. Because teams differ in their quality, performance needs to be compared with the best practice of comparable units. One remarkable source of heterogeneity across teams is the squad composition, which can produce gains from diversity together with communication costs. The paper studies the efficiency in sporting performance of soccer teams, paying attention to how the number of foreign players relates to productive inefficiency. Using data for 146 teams in the top 5 European leagues during 10 seasons, we estimate a double heteroskedastic True Random Effects Stochastic Frontier team production function. We find that (i) the number of passes, ball recoveries, and shots from the penalty area improve team efficiency, and (ii) a higher number of foreign players increase inefficiency. Our findings suggest that gains from squad diversity might be offset by communication costs.     

绿色建筑采光模拟软件的适用性分析与计算精度验证

建筑采光模拟软件对绿色建筑设计有不可或缺的作用.文章首先阐述了建筑采光模拟软件的种类及特性,然后对4款采光软件的适用性进行分析,最后选取3款适用性较强的软件,通过实测与模拟对比的方法验证了软件的计算精度.     

Skill transferability,regret and mobility

After graduation many students start working in sectors not related to their field of study or participate in training targeted at work in other sectors. In this article, we look at mobility immediately after graduation from the perspective that educational choices have been made when these pupils had little experience of the actual working life in these professions. We develop a model where students accumulate partially transferable human capital but also learn about their professional preferences at the university and during the first years in the labour market. As a consequence of this newly acquired insight, these young workers might realize that working in another occupational field would better fit their preferences, although they are better equipped to work in their own field. The empirical analysis reveals that if wages are 1% lower due to lower skill transferability, the probability that a graduate who regrets his choice actually switches decreases by 1.4 percentage points, while those who switch on average take 0.3 months additional education.     

The effects of agglomeration economies on technical efficiency of manufacturing firms: evidence from Indonesia

This article examines the effects of agglomeration economies and industrial structure upon firm-level technical efficiency in the Indonesian manufacturing industry over the period 2004–2009. A stochastic production frontier and three channels of agglomeration economies consisting of specialization, diversity and competition are used. The empirical results show that the effects of specialization and diversity upon firm-level technical efficiency are positive and negative, respectively, indicating that specialization is more favourable than diversity for stimulating firms’ technical efficiency. Competition has a positive sign, showing that region with high levels of competition tend to be more conducive in accelerating firm-level technical efficiency. In terms of firm location, both dummy for urban region and industrial complex turn out to be positive, indicating that firms located in both areas are experienced higher technical efficiency. Both firm size and age also have positive effect upon technical efficiency.     

经济增长的技术效率及其影响因素研究——以四川省为例

运用2000—2010年数据,基于对数型柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的随机前沿模型,对四川省区域经济增长效率及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明,四川省经济增长主要靠劳动力驱动,平均技术效率水平较低,经济处于规模报酬递减状态,且其区域差异有扩大的趋势。而基础设施建设和科研投入对经济增长效率具有促进作用,金融机构的贷款业务和政府财政支出对效率的提高具有抑制作用。     

The three Is of public schools: irrelevant inputs,insufficient resources and inefficiency

We examine the educational production function and efficiency of public school districts in Illinois. Using non-parametric kernel methods, we find that most traditional schooling inputs are irrelevant in determining test scores (even in a very general setting). Property tax caps are the only relevant factor that is related to districts’ financial constraints and have predominantly negative associations with test scores. Therefore, insufficient resources may be partially responsible for the lack of growth in test scores. For most other relevant inputs, we find substantial heterogeneity in the returns, which helps reconcile some of the puzzling results in the literature. We further find that there exist inefficiencies in school districts. Moreover, the level of test scores, commonly used as a measure of school effectiveness, (while related) differs substantially from our efficiency scores, and standard parametric approaches drastically underestimate school efficiency. We discuss the policy implications of our results.     

中国地区工业知识生产效率测算

文章运用1996-2003年我国29个省(自治区,直辖市)的大中型工业企业面板数据,以新产品开发项目数衡量创新产出,以研发资本存量和研发人员表示创新投入,采用数据包络分析和随机前沿分析方法,对我国地区工业的知识生产效率进行了测算和分析。分析结果表明,用随机前沿法测算的知识生产效率较大而且较为稳定;各地区工业的知识生产效率存在较大差异,具有明显的不均衡发展特征;总体而言,我国地区工业的知识生产效率偏低,存在较大的改进潜力。     

Adam Smith on lotteries: an interpretation and formal restatement

The paper concerns a neglected aspect of the Wealth of Nations (with the notable exception of D. Levy 1999 Levy, D. M. 1999. “Adam Smith’s Katallactic Model of Gambling: Approbation from the Spectator.” Journal of the History of Economic Thought 21 (1): 81–91. doi:10.1017/S1053837200002868.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), dealing directly with decision under risk. In a few pages from book I, chapter 10, Adam Smith explicitly named “lotteries” various objects of choice (possible occupations, or investment opportunities, for instance) and provided an analysis which standard expected utility glasses would hardly fit. Taking this into account allows a better understanding of the part played by typical characters like the “projector” or the “sober man”, in such matters as Smith’s conception of entrepreneurship or of the credit market. The use of some modern concepts in decision analysis (inverse stochastic dominance, rank dependent utility, prudence toward risk), is a means to show the existence, in Smith’s work, of an original theory from decision under risk, where his analysis of lotteries in the Wealth of Nations is consistent with statements from his moral philosophy on asymmetric sensitivity to gains and losses and to the regulating part played by the impartial spectator.     

茶农生产性投资的技术效率及其影响因素实证分析——以福建安溪为例

以福建省安溪县茶农问卷调查数据为基础,利用随机前沿生产函数模型估计样本茶农投资的技术效率,并分析技术效率的变化规律及其影响因素。研究表明,茶农从事茶叶生产加工的时间、茶农从事茶叶生产加工的时间的平方项、茶农户主的受教育年限这3个解释变量对于技术效率的影响不显著;而茶农户主年龄、茶农主栽品种、是否接受过培训、茶农茶叶收入占家庭总收入的比例、茶农家庭拥有的茶园面积、村庄所在地类型虚变量与技术效率呈现正相关的关系;茶农家庭拥有的茶园面积的平方项、地区差异则对技术效率产生负向影响。