我国股改中权证的价格泡沫及影响因素

本文针对我国股改中的百慕大权证提出了新的“模拟树-市场情绪”定价模型。该模型的实证研究结果表明中国权证市场价格存在严重高估;加入市场情绪指标后,通过建立多元回归模型得到了对于实际价格的显著的拟合结果,有力地解释了超出权证理论价格的实际价格所包含的情绪因素。本文最后对权证价格高估的原因及权证未来的走势进行了分析。     

Carbon Trading with Imperfectly Observable Emissions

The Kyoto Protocol foresees emission trading but does not yet specify verification of (uncertain) emissions. This paper analyses a setting in which parties can meet their emission targets by reducing emissions, by investing in monitoring (reducing uncertainty of emissions) or by (bilaterally) trading permits. We derive the optimality conditions and carry out various numerical simulations. Our applications suggest that including uncertainty could increase compliance costs for the USA, Japan and the European Union. Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union might be able to gain from trading due to higher permit prices. Emissions trading could also lower aggregate uncertainty on emissions.     

Embodied and Disembodied Technical Change in Fisheries: An Analysis of the Sète Trawl Fishery, 1985–1999

Overfishing and excess capacity in mostfisheries around the world have generated considerableand increasing concern about their biological and economic performance ramifications. Theseproblems, in part, stem from substantialinvestment in technical improvements to boats andequipment in fishing fleets, which exacerbatesexcess fishing capacity and low returns tofishing effort and investment, given regulatoryand biological constraints. However, little attempt hasbeen made to quantify the extent or effects oftechnical change in fisheries. In this paper, we usedetailed data on innovation patterns for 19vessels in the Sète trawl fleet of southernFrance to evaluate the contributions oftechnical change to catch rates. We find thatembodied technical change enhanced productivity by approximately one percent per year between 1985 and 1999, but that external (disembodied) events counteractedthis trend, causing a net output decline ofabout three percent per year.     

激励扭曲与努力的无效分配——基于银行客户经理制模拟利润考核的有效性分析

文章首先通过运用多任务委托代理模型分析商业银行模拟利润考核制度的激励效应和扭曲效应,以及可能导致客户经理努力的无效分配;然后扩展分析银行模拟利润考核的有效性和模拟利润成本之间的权衡以及模拟利润的最优精确水平;最后结合我国商业银行的现实状况引申出与商业银行客户经理模拟利润考核制度相关的结论与政策建议。     

Simulation driven inferences for multiply imputed longitudinal datasets*

In this article, we demonstrate by simulations that rich imputation models for incomplete longitudinal datasets produce more calibrated estimates in terms of reduced bias and higher coverage rates without duly deflating the efficiency. We argue that the use of supplementary variables that are thought to be potential causes or correlates of missingness or outcomes in the imputation process may lead to better inferential results in comparison to simpler imputation models. The liberal use of these variables is recommended as opposed to the conservative strategy.     

A Stochastic Frontier Production Function with Flexible Risk Properties

This paper considers a stochastic frontier production function which has additive, heteroscedastic error structure. The model allows for negative or positive marginal production risks of inputs, as originally proposed by Just and Pope (1978). The technical efficiencies of individual firms in the sample are a function of the levels of the input variables in the stochastic frontier, in addition to the technical inefficiency effects. These are two features of the model which are not exhibited by the commonly used stochastic frontiers with multiplicative error structures.An empirical application is presented using cross-sectional data on Ethiopian peasant farmers. The null hypothesis of no technical inefficiencies of production among these farmers is accepted. Further, the flexible risk models do not fit the data on peasant farmers as well as the traditional stochastic frontier model with multiplicative error structure.     

无刷直流电机控制系统的建模及仿真

简要介绍了无刷直流电机的工作原理,建立了BLDCM数学模型及simulink仿真模型.仿真结果表明波形符合理论分析,系统具有良好的静、动态特性.     

商业银行利率风险计量模型及实证分析--非平移收益曲线条件下的随机免疫策略

传统的久期理论建立在收益曲线平移等严格假设条件上，因而其在实践中的有效性大大降低了。根据Markowitz（1959）等理论可推导出：资产价格的总风险包括收益的方差和全久期向量两部分；假若商业银行采取现金中性（cash neutrality）的资产交易策略，风险计量模型可转换为线性规划问题，从而可以构建基于利率风险最小化模型的随机免疫策略。也就是说，引入随机免疫的理念来替代经典的免疫理论，通过实证分析得出：无现金交易条件下的随机免疫策略能够降低利率风险。     

基于计算机仿真的堆石坝坝面流水施工方案研究

根据流水施工的基本原理和堆石坝填筑的施工特点，利用计算机仿真技术对堆石坝施工交通运输系统进行模拟，考虑了堆石坝土石方挖运对其坝面流水施工的影响，合理确定出坝面流水施工方案，使其既能够满足施工进度所要求的填筑强度，又能够保证各分区可以进行流水施工。     

物流系统建模方法的研究

通过对现有系统建模分析方法的比较和分析,针对物流系统提出了一种集成建模分析GI-SIM法。该方法以概念、功能和动态建模思想为基础,以GRAI格、IDEFO和仿真技术为建模工具,满足了复杂物流系统的建模要求。最后,给出了GI-SIM法的建模步骤,并对其进行了总结和评价。