过度投资、公司业绩与债务融资——基于信息对称视角下的持续时间模型研究

基于信息对称的视角,通过建立持续时间模型,并用杠杆比率表示为投资项目进行融资的总成本中债务融资所占的比重来研究债务融资对过度投资和公司业绩的影响.结果发现:当信息是对称的情况下,公司如果发生过度投资便不会出现投资不足,并且债务融资占投资项目总成本的比重越高公司过度投资程度越大.     

货币政策、企业家信心与上市公司投资效率*

企业、企业家等微观主体对货币政策的反应,在较大程度上影响货币政策的效果。货币政策可通过对企业家信心的影响,进而对公司投资效率产生作用。基于中国2007—2016年40个季度A股上市公司样本的实证研究表明：企业家信心在货币政策传导过程中有不可忽视的作用。企业家信心增强或者货币政策宽松时会加剧过度投资,减轻投资不足;企业家信心减弱或者货币政策紧缩时可以有效抑制过度投资,但会加剧投资不足。其中,国有企业对企业家信心和货币政策松紧的敏感性更强。进一步,货币政策对企业投资效率的影响,也会通过货币政策和企业家信心的交互作用而发挥作用。这种作用在国有企业和非国有企业之间无显著差异。     

地方养老基金委托投资风险的审计控制

在全国社保基金理事会受托投资运营广东省企业职工基本养老保险基金的示范下,越来越多的地方养老基金实行多元化的投资运营乃属大势所趋。既要拓宽养老基金的投资渠道,又要强化包括政府审计在内的监督形式以控制投资尤其是证券投资的风险,是当前中国地方养老基金运营管理的现实选择。通过对各地养老基金的审计监督,明确只有经省级政府动议、本级人大和国务院批准,委托给国家专门成立或其他具有优秀业绩的资产管理机构开展多元化投资运营,并在委托合同中规定进入投资市场的比例、规模、进度、期限、对象与保底收益等事项,才能在最大程度上防范和化解投资风险,促进投资风险预警机制和风险控制制度的健全,确保基金的保值增值。     

房地产投资分析浅析

房地产投资分析是房地产投资决策的基础，所涉及的内容较多。章通过对消费、投资地域、资金筹集和投资项目4个方面分析，详细地阐述了影响房地产投资决策的各种主要因素，提出将房地产投资风险降至最低的建议。     

多重目标下的跨国银行FDI动机和区位选择——基于跨国银行面板数据变截距固定效应模型的检验

依据1986年-2008年期间以外国金融直接投资的形式在我国设立商业存在的跨国银行数据、运用Panel Data变截距固定效应模型GLS估算方法,检验了跨国银行进入我国的动机和区位选择的影响因素.结果发现,跨国银行进入我国"追求利润"的动机比"客户追随"的动机更加强烈;而制度质量上接近的程度则是跨国银行进行区位选择的决定性因素.     

基于区间数二级收敛的风险型方案的择优

区间数多属性择优问题是多属性决策研究中的重要内容.为解决成本与效益型混合的多属性风险型方案择优问题,在分析区间数的定义及其在方案属性集中应用的基础上,本文运用区间数的二级收敛思想,给出了多属性风险型方案的择优过程:首先规范决策矩阵并将各备选方案属性权重的区间数收敛为点值;其次计算各备选方案综合属性值的区间数并建立可能度矩阵再将各备选方案综合属性值的区间数收敛为点值;最后运用综合属性排序向量计算各备选方案的综合属性点值并进行排序.本文实例印证了该择优过程的实用性和有效性.本文研究成果可丰富多属性决策研究内容并有助于风险投资者科学高效地选择最佳投资方案,因而具有较高的理论意义及实践价值.     

Uncertainty and Financing Constraints

Using a panel of Dutch listed firms this paper provides empirical evidence for the hypothesis that more risky firms are confronted with more severe capital market constraints than relatively less risky firms. The paper also contributes to the discussion on the usefulness of cash flow as a measure of financial constraints. We present a stochastic version of the Kaplan-Zingales (1997) model. We show that cash flow sensitivity can be used as a meaningful indicator of financing constraints if firms are classified by the degree of uncertainty they face and if the uncertainty originates from cost uncertainty.     

货币时间价值在投资决策中的应用

货币时间价值的客观存在不仅在理论界得到了公认,而且其产生的作用时刻影响着人们的日常经济生活。不管是企业的项目投资,还是个人的理财投资,都不可忽视货币时间价值。在进行方案抉择的时候,要优先选用包含货币时间价值的动态指标(净现值、获利指数和内涵报酬率)进行评价,选择最优方案,做出科学的投资决策。企业和个人要牢固树立货币时间价值观念,利用它为企业和个人决策服务,促进企业和个人合理利用有限资金,创造更高的效益。     

Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies

This paper investigates the causal links between stock market performance and consumption for five Asian economies by applying the bound tests of Pesaran et al. and lag augmented VAR of Toda and Yamamoto . We find two‐way causal relationships between stock market performance and consumption in the cases of Hong Kong and Taiwan in the long run. The existence of such two‐way causal links indicates that stock market performance and consumption mutually affect each other, implying that the previous studies may have overestimated the wealth effect of the stock markets without taking account of the reverse causation from consumption to the stock markets. The short‐run effect of the stock market on consumption is more visible than the long‐run effect in most of the sample economies, suggesting that changes in consumption directly reflect stock market fluctuations.     

Affiliated block shareholders and analyst optimism

We investigate several previously under-documented conflicts of interest that may result in analyst optimism by utilizing two unique features of brokerage firms in China, namely, the dominant ownership of large shareholders within the brokerage firms and the mandatory disclosure of brokerage firms’ commission income derived from each mutual fund client. We show that controlling shareholders of an analyst’s brokerage-firm put pressure on the analyst to report more optimistically biased earnings forecasts and recommendations to the stocks they hold larger positions in. We also find that the magnitude of analyst optimism increases with the shareholdings of the mutual funds that contribute commission fees to the analyst’s brokerage firm. These findings remain robust after incorporating a regulation change that reduces conflicts of interest in the brokerage industry and higher dimensional fixed effects, and thus are unlikely to be driven by reverse causality or omitted variable bias.