不同的政策不确定性对股市波动影响相同吗?

本文基于多因子混频波动率模型,研究经济政策不确定性对股市行业波动的影响,为预防出现结构性断点,将样本分为经济增长和经济平稳两个时期,分别探讨两个时期内经济政策不确定性对股市波动的影响。研究发现,在全样本时期货币政策不确定性会显著增强行业波动,贸易和外汇政策不确定性会抑制行业波动,而财政政策不确定性的影响存在行业差异性;子样本结果显示,贸易政策不确定性对行业波动的影响存在非对称性,在经济增长期存在助推作用,在经济平稳期存在抑制作用;同时行业波动在经济增长期对贸易政策反应敏感,在经济平稳期对财政政策反应敏感。     

卷烟企业制丝质量数据管理系统设计

质量管理是生产管理系统的核心功能,在质量管理的设计过程中我们将以生产线的过程数据为基础,把生产工艺、工艺标准、质量指标、控制环节、质量问题和关键控制设备联系起来,统一管理;在生产过程中通过数据采集来分析评估生产过程的质量数据,发现质量问题、分析质量问题,从而为用户改进产品质量提供数据保证。     

Web数据挖掘中XML技术的应用研究

随着网络技术的发展,网上的信息资源越来越丰富,怎样对Web上海量的数据信息进行深层次的应用成了当今数据库技术的研究热点。文章针对Web上数据的特点和目前Web数据挖掘存在的挑战,结合XML语言的技术特点,主要探讨了XML技术在Web数据挖掘中的重要应用。     

The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerity: New evidence from a large sample

We empirically assess whether the negative response of private consumption and private investment to fiscal consolidation usually expected is reversed. We focus on a sample of 174 countries between 1970 and 2018 to determine episodes of fiscal consolidations using three alternative measures of the cyclically adjusted primary balance: (1) an International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Economic Outlook (WEO) based measure, (2) a Hodrick-Prescott–based measure, and (3) a measure based on Hamilton (2018). We find that, first, increases in government consumption have a Keynesian effect on real per capita private consumption; second, tax increases have a positive effect on private consumption when a fiscal consolidation occurs; and, third, fiscal contraction has a crowding-in effect on private investment. Moreover, expansionary fiscal consolidations occur in highly indebted advanced economies, in particular, after an increase in taxes. We conclude that the negative effects of taxation on private consumption are larger when developing economies are experiencing a financial crisis and are not consolidating.     

跨国汽车公司环境责任研究——基于动态面板数据的回归分析

本文基于动态面板数据,对13家著名跨国汽车公司进行了实证研究。研究表明,履行环境责任对跨国汽车公司在利润率水平和公司排名等方面产生影响。影响方向可能是正向,也可能是逆向;影响时间可能是即期,也可能是滞后一期、或滞后两期。影响程度因公司而异,但总体来说,没有表现出明显的地区差异。     

基于EM-NB算法的网络调查缺失数据处理方法

将最大期望值算法(EM)与朴素贝叶斯算法(NB)相结合,提出EM-NB算法来填补网络调查中的缺失数据。对比基于处理后的完备数据集的分类统计结果与基于纸质调查得到的分析结果,结果显示,利用EM-NB算法处理缺失数据后的网络调查问卷与纸质调查问卷可得到一致的调查结果。这表明EM-NB算法是一种有效的处理网络调查中缺失数据的方法。     

Exchange‐rate volatility and US–Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a ‘third country’ effect?

In an effort to better understand the determinants of trade flows worldwide, researchers have recently incorporated external volatility (in addition to that of the partners’ bilateral exchange rate) into their models. The so‐called ‘third country’ effect is present if adding this term changes the bilateral volatility estimates that are found when external volatility is omitted. This study examines US exports to Hong Kong for 143 industries, and imports from Hong Kong for 110 industries, and finds two key results. First, expected inflation due to Hong Kong's dollar peg leads to increased US exports in a large number of industries. Second, comparing our results with those of a previous study shows strong evidence of a ‘third country’ effect, especially for US imports. Nonparametric tests suggest that these effects differ by sector: for both exports and imports. Manufacturing industries that enjoy a large trade share are less likely to experience this effect once external volatility is incorporated into the analysis.     

TESTING FOR STATIONARITY WITH A BREAK IN PANELS WHERE THE TIME DIMENSION IS FINITE

In this paper, we consider the case of finite time dimension in the panel stationarity tests with structural breaks. By fixing T, the finite sample properties of the tests for both micro (T small and N large) and macro (both T and N large) panel data are generally greatly improved. More importantly, the derivation of the tests for finite T and , as opposed to joint asymptotic where N and simultaneously, avoids the imposition of the rate condition making the test valid for any (T, N) blend. Four models corresponding to the usual combination of breaks are considered. The asymptotic distributions of the test are derived under the null hypothesis and are shown to be normally distributed. Their moments for T fixed are derived analytically employing Ghazal’s corollary 1. The case with unknown breaks is also considered. The proposed tests have generally empirical sizes that are very close to the nominal size. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the power of the test statistics increases substantially with N and T.     

基于DEA方法的上市公司财务治理效率评价

股权分置改革对中国资本市场和上市公司的影响深远。通过几年的实施,上市公司的财务治理发生了根本性的变化。为了衡量股权分置改革对上市公司财务治理的影响,使用数据包络分析法（DEA方法）计算评价公司财务治理的效率,明确影响财务治理的主要因素：机构持股,第一大股东持股,债权人治理,高管薪酬,独立董事制度。它们分别从财务治理结构、财务治理机制等方面影响财务治理效率,应成为公司改善财务治理的着手点。