建设项目环境绩效评价指标体系的构建

环境绩效评价的引入和推广使建筑业越来越关注其自身活动对环境的影响。迄今,学术界对环境绩效评价的研究成果显著,不仅基于自然环境、社会环境、经济环境的三角关系形成可持续性评价的研究领域,还基于项目全生命周期管理创立了全生命周期评价的理论体系。基于文献综述和问卷调查,设计出一套适用于建设项目的环境绩效指标,并分析各指标的数据可获得性、重要性及应受关注度,为国内建设项目更加科学地进行环境绩效评价提供了理论支持。     

文昌油田群油气水计量技术优化及实施效果

从文昌油田群油气水计量技术优化方案及实施效果的现场应用出发,阐述了多相流量计这一新型技术对油气田的产能配置、病态生产工况的诊断、油气井的维护和控制具有明显的技术优势和效果。     

Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7

In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that has not previously been analyzed in the literature. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all G7-countries and for four different macroeconomic variables. Our results show a high degree of dispersion of forecast accuracy across forecasters. We also find that there are large differences in the performances of forecasters, not only across countries but also across different macroeconomic variables. In general, the forecasts tend to be biased in situations where the forecasters have to learn about large structural shocks or gradual changes in the trend of a variable. Furthermore, while a sizable fraction of forecasters seem to smooth their GDP forecasts significantly, this does not apply to forecasts made for other macroeconomic variables.     

Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models

This paper incorporates vintage differences and forecasts into the Markov switching models described by Hamilton (1994). The vintage differences and forecasts induce parameter breaks close to the end of the sample, too close for standard maximum likelihood techniques to produce precise parameter estimates. A supplementary procedure estimates the statistical properties of the end-of-sample observations that behave differently from the rest, allowing inferred probabilities to reflect the breaks. Empirical results using real-time data show that these techniques improve the ability of a Markov switching model based on GDP and GDI to recognize the start of the 2001 recession.     

Scoring rules and survey density forecasts

This article provides a practical evaluation of some leading density forecast scoring rules in the context of forecast surveys. We analyse the density forecasts of UK inflation obtained from the Bank of England’s Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts published in the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, and the individual survey responses recently made available to researchers by the Bank. The density forecasts are collected in histogram format, and the ranked probability score (RPS) is shown to have clear advantages over other scoring rules. Missing observations are a feature of forecast surveys, and we introduce an adjustment to the RPS, based on the Yates decomposition, to improve its comparative measurement of forecaster performance in the face of differential non-response. The new measure, denoted RPS*, is recommended to analysts of forecast surveys.     

Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.     

基于DEA的物流公司绩效评价

鉴于传统绩效评价方法的局限性,运用数据包络分析（DEA）法,并以2008和2009年19家中国物流上市公司为样本进行实证研究,为各物流企业客观了解和评价自身物流竞争力和相对物流绩效水平提供参考。     

组织机构代码数据深度挖掘在城市经济决策中的作用浅析

数据挖掘技术的出现为组织机构代码办证过程中积累原始数据的深层次开发应用提供了一种可行的手段。文章介绍了数据挖掘在组织机构代码工作中的使用目的和实现方法,并结合实际数据详细分析了代码信息的应用,希望通过对代码数据的挖掘为决策者提供有用的信息参考。     

物流用发泡包装材料无害化生产过程数据采集方案探讨

叙述了发泡包装材料无害化生产过程,分析了该过程中物质的流向及数据采集点的分布。简要介绍了虚拟仪器技术,提出了在LabVIEW环境下针对无害化生产过程的数据采集方案。     

基于动态数据驱动的半导体生产线调度仿真

针对半导体晶圆生产的特点,研究了基于动态数据驱动的半导体生产调度仿真系统。系统通过实时采集半导体生产线上的动态数据监控生产过程,并且根据仿真数据和生产数据的差异,及时识别扰动,驱动系统重调度仿真。系统通过混合知识表示形成基于半导体生产调度因素、调度策略和调度方法的知识网络,运用JESS实现动态调度策略实时推理。并且利用多Agent强大的模型描述能力和分布式问题求解能力提高仿真的实时性。仿真结果表明,系统具有很好的实时性和动态适应性,能够保持生产的稳定运行。