商业银行操作风险管理与监管研究

当前,操作风险已成为银行损失的重要源头之一,国际银行业正在积极研究加强和完善操作风险管理和监管的方法.本文在定性分析操作风险的基础上,概括性地回顾了国际银行业在操作风险管理制度、监管手段和方式等方面的探索,分析了我国银行业操作风险管理与监管中存在的突出问题,并从培育风险管理文化、健全监管制度框架、完善公司治理结构和内部控制、加大风险管理工具开发和创造良好的外部环境等方面提出对策和建议.     

论注册会计师责任保险制度

注册会计师责任保险对于提高会计师事务所的风险抵御能力和保护投资者利益两方面都具有重要意义.在我国,注册会计师责任保险尚处于起步阶段,无论是需求还是供给都存在不足.但随着我国虚假陈述民事诉讼制度的不断完善,注册会计师的法律诉讼风险将大大提高.为了降低事务所的执业风险、保护受到虚假陈述侵害的投资者利益,我国应当借鉴其他国家和地区的经验,完善我国的注册会计师责任保险制度,并建立相关的配套措施,促进注册会计师责任保险制度的发展.     

Hedging Housing Risk*

An unusually rich source of data on housing prices in Stockholm is used to analyze the investment implications of housing choices. This empirical analysis derives market-wide price and return series for housing investment during a 13-year period, and it also provides estimates of the individual-specific, idiosyncratic, variation in housing returns. Because the idiosyncratic component follows an autocorrelated process, the analysis of portfolio choice is dependent upon the holding period. We analyze the composition of household investment portfolios containing housing, common stocks, stocks in real estate holding companies, bonds, and t-bills. For short holding periods, the efficient portfolio contains essentially no housing. For longer periods, low-risk portfolios contain 15 to 50 percent housing. These results suggest that there are large potential gains from policies or institutions that would permit households to hedge their lumpy investments in housing. We estimate the potential value of hedges in reducing risk to households, yet yielding the same investment returns. The value is surprisingly large, especially to poorer homeowners.     

Portfolio Optimization under Lower Partial Risk Measures

Portfolio management using lower partial risk (downside risk) measures is attracting more attention of practitioners in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to review important characteristics of these riskmeasures and conduct simulation using four alternative measures, lower semi-variance, lower semi-absolute deviation, first order below targetrisk and conditional value-at-risk.We will show that these risk measures are useful to control downside risk whenthe distribution of assets is non-symmetric. Further, we will propose a computational scheme to resolve the difficultyassociated with solving a large dense linear programming problems resulting from these models. We will demonstrate that this method can in fact solve problems consisting of10⁴ assets and 10⁵ scenarios within a practical amount of CPU time.     

Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks

Although credit risk is an important factor that financial institutions must cope with, the determinants of bank problem loans have been little studied. Using panel data, we compare the determinants of problem loans of Spanish commercial and savings banks in the period 1985–1997, taking into account both macroeconomic and individual bank level variables. The GDP growth rate, firms, and family indebtedness, rapid past credit or branch expansion, inefficiency, portfolio composition, size, net interest margin, capital ratio, and market power are variables that explain credit risk. However, there are significant differences between commercial and savings banks, which confirm the relevance of the institutional form in the management of credit risk. Our findings raise important bank supervisory policy issues: the use of bank level variables as early warning indicators, the advantages of bank mergers from different regions, and the role of banking competition and ownership in determining credit risk.     

商业银行控制利率风险的技术和工具

随着我国利率市场化改革进程的加快以及我国与世界经济和金融联系的加强 ,利率波动的频率和幅度将越来越大 ,因而商业银行将面临更大的利率风险。为此 ,本文介绍了西方商业银行如何运用持续期缺口、远期利率协议、期货、期权等技术和工具来管理和控制利率风险 ,以期对我国的商业银行有所借鉴。     

关于房地产投资风险类型的研究

本借鉴了证券投资组合理论和资本资产定价模型的思想，将房地产投资风险划分为系统风险和非系统风险，并结合我国的实际情况，对房地产投资风险的类型进行了深入的研究。     

论我国地方财政风险的个性特征

我国地方财政风险，不同于一般的财政风险。从整体考察，它具有分散性、非均衡性和传导性；从结构考察，具有隐蔽性、发展性和内生性，同时它又受外部因素的影响很大。     

经济增长在险水平、条件波动性与经济增长态势研究

经济增长在险水平（GaR）和条件标准差（CSD）能够有效地度量国家经济风险波动的单向性和双向性。利用动态时窗和条件异方差模型，我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济周期波动密切相关，目前的国家风险状态已经体现出明显的稳定性。利用协整关系检验，我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济增长水平之间存在正相关的长期均衡关系，因此采取积极经济政策的“反周期”干预，所诱发的适度经济波动将有且经济快速稳定增长。