高技术产品研发项目技术风险的综合评价——以数码相机研发项目为例

文章以数码相机研发项目为例,提出了基于层次分析法与模糊综合评判法的高技术产品研发项目技术风险的综合评价方法,利用研发项目的工作分解结构对数码相机研发项目的风险进行了识别,制定了风险发生概率与影响程度的评分标准,并对数码相机研发项目的风险进行了综合评价和分析。     

基于技术风险的研发联盟政府补贴政策研究

文章考虑研发存在技术风险,建立了合作研发博弈模型,研究了政府不同财政补贴方式（研发投入补贴和产品补贴）下的企业研发和生产策略。通过理论和数值仿真分析找出了不同补贴政策下的企业最优策略和相应的社会福利,并就政府的研发补贴政策提出了相应建议。研究表明,两种补贴政策均无法实现社会福利的最优解,研发难度较小的情况下宜采用研发投入补贴,研发难度较大的情况下应采用产品补贴,以此提高企业研发投入和社会福利。     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON THE URBAN–RURAL DISPARITY IN HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA

With China's economic development and capital accumulation in the industrial sectors, the human capital level of the labours moving from the rural areas could no longer meet the demand of the industrial sectors. Therefore, “structural shortage of technical labour” emerged in the labour market as a result of excess of demand for high‐skilled workers. Previous literature mostly focused on the relationship between rural human‐capital level and labour movement, income change and economic growth, but in this article, the authors focus on the study of the relative disparity of urban and rural human capital and labour movement, as well as the effect of the change of urban–rural human capital gap on industrial output, profit and social welfare. This article shows that bridging the urban–rural gap in respect of human capital level could not only improve the situation of the “structural shortage of technical labour,” but also have a positive effect on the general social welfare.     

活性焦脱硫技术应用现状与技术经济性分析

综述了国内外活性焦脱硫技术发展与干法脱硫工艺技术的应用现状,对比分析了活性焦干法脱硫技术与传统石灰石-石膏湿法脱硫技术、循环流化床干法脱硫技术的技术经济性。     

粤东西北与珠三角物流产业技术效率比较

运用DEA效率测度方法,通过对2013-2017年粤东西北与珠三角区域物流产业技术效率的对比研究,探索推动广东省区域物流协调发展的路径。结果显示:对比珠三角区域,粤东西北区域物流产业技术效率与珠三角区域存在较大差距,尤其是粤东与粤西地区,粤东区域物流产业技术效率值仅为0.4,粤西区域物流产业技术效率值为0.81,均远低于珠三角区域物流产业技术效率值0.94。纯技术效率低下是制约粤东西北地区物流产业技术效率提升的主要因素,应加强物流产业信息技术应用,推进物流技术装备现代化,提高技术创新能力水平。     

基于共生理论的具有历史遗存的城市公园改造研究

具有历史遗存的城市公园是指在公园红线范围内含有一定文化价值的历史文化景点、文化遗产和文物保护单位等历史遗存的城市公园,其改造与更新的核心问题是平衡公园的保护传承与复兴发展,寻求二者的共生,如何科学有效地平衡协调两者之间的关系成为改造的关键。基于共生理论的解读与启示,以江西省南屏瀚峰文化公园为例,分别从文化、功能和空间3个方面深入分析了公园存在的主要问题,并结合实例,探讨了具有历史遗存的城市公园改造与更新的共生策略与实践措施。     

人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响及政策挑战——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

人工智能的发展是生产力进步的表现,但广泛使用人工智能技术的经济效应尚待深入研究。基于人工智能对劳动的替代作用,将人工智能投资引入动态随机一般均衡模型,通过比较静态分析和短期动态分析考察人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响。稳态分析表明：人工智能投资效率提高和使用范围扩大均会提升劳动生产率进而提高产出水平,但对长期或趋势通胀没有影响;在人工智能发展初级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资下降,而在相对高级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资上升。短期动态分析显示：人工智能发展水平的提高,无论是投资效率的提高还是使用范围的扩大,都会导致通胀及实际边际成本对偏好冲击和技术冲击等外生冲击的反应变弱。人工智能的发展会使通胀动态与实际经济活动变化间的联系减弱,其原因是人工智能对劳动的替代作用使工资调整不再是应对外生冲击的必然选择,进而改变了外生冲击通过影响工资来影响通胀的传导机制。因此,发展人工智能在促进生产率提升和产出增长的同时,还会改变宏观经济变量间的传导机制,进而对通胀等政策调控目标变量的准确预测以及政策调整和实施的有效性带来新的挑战,也为金融理论研究提出新的课题。     

Exploring the knowledge spillovers of a technology in an entrepreneurial ecosystem—The case of artificial intelligence in Sydney

New knowledge presents opportunities for commercial value and can hence be a critical asset for entrepreneurial ecosystems (EEs). In particular, general purpose technologies are major drivers of entrepreneurship. Thus, a nuanced understanding on technological knowledge and its spillovers among actors within an EE is warranted. Using knowledge‐spillover‐based strategic entrepreneurship theory, we propose to observe knowledge spillovers through the assessment of the knowledge bases of a technology in an EE. To do so, this article proposes to use three key sources of knowledge: publications reflecting the emerging knowledge base, patents representing the realized knowledge base, and startups showing the experimental knowledge base. This article uses secondary data sources such as Web of Science and applies the method of bibliometrics to illustrate how an assessment is carried out in practice by evaluating the artificial intelligence (AI) knowledge bases in Sydney from 2000 to 2018. The findings are summarized with an illustration of the evolution of the key actors and their activities over time in order to indicate the key strengths and weaknesses in Sydney's AI knowledge among the different bases. Contrary to expectations from the high potential of knowledge spillovers from a general purpose digital technology such as AI, the article shows that apparent knowledge spillovers are yet highly limited in Sydney. Even though Sydney has a strong emerging knowledge base, the realized knowledge base seems weak and the experimental knowledge base is slowly improving. That observation itself verifies the need to take strategic actions to facilitate knowledge spillovers within EEs. After the implications for theory and policy makers are discussed, suggestions for further studies are proposed.     

虚拟现实在职业技术教育中的应用

虚拟现实作为一门崭新的综合性信息处理技术,可以创建虚拟环境下的高级人机交互系统.了解虚拟现实的发展现状、虚拟现实技术在职业技术教育中应用的必要性和存在的问题,使虚拟现实在职业技术教育中尽早得到应用和普及,将对职业技术教育的发展产生广泛的作用和影响.