Looking into the black box of boosting: the case of Germany

This article looks into the ‘fine print’ of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for the period from 1996 to 2014 and a data set consisting of 175 monthly indicators, we evaluate which indicators get selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard indicators like turnovers, as well as a small number of survey results, get selected frequently by the algorithm and are therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply that never get chosen by the boosting approach at all.     

朱载堉才是“需求层次理论”的鼻祖——且更独特,更显棋高一着

以往学术界都把美国心理学家马斯洛奉为需求层次理论的鼻祖;但最新的研究成果,彻底推翻了这一陈见,认为中国明朝的科学家朱载堉才是需求层次理论的鼻祖,比美国人马斯洛还要早约三百六十多年,且朱载堉对需求层次的认知,要比马斯洛更独特,更显棋高一着。     

我国新型农村金融机构存在的问题及对策分析

我国的新型农村金融机构自成立和运行以来,取得了一定的成绩,但也存在着若干问题亟待解决。本文分析了新型农村金融机构运行中存在的问题,并提出改进现状的相关建议,以更好地发挥新型农村金融机构在新农村建设中的作用。     

Spatial takeoff in the first industrial revolution

Using the framework of Desmet and Rossi-Hansberg (forthcoming), we present a model of spatial takeoff that is calibrated using spatially-disaggregated occupational data for England in c. 1710. The model predicts changes in the spatial distribution of agricultural and manufacturing employment which match data for c. 1817 and 1861. The model also matches a number of aggregate changes that characterise the first industrial revolution. Using counterfactual geographical distributions, we show that the initial concentration of productivity can matter for whether and when an industrial takeoff occurs. Subsidies to innovation in either sector can bring forward the date of takeoff while subsidies to the use of land by manufacturing firms can significantly delay a takeoff because it decreases spatial concentration of activity.     

货币信用属性演化的历史与逻辑

通过讨论主要货币起源与演化理论的矛盾与不足,从货币取得人们信任的角度,尝试整合了货币起源与演化的事实与逻辑,由此可以认为货币的本质是信用,(商品、金属)货币和纸币一样都是信用货币,货币演化是货币内涵的威权因素和物的因素相互竞争的结果;且货币制度的核心是信用。维持人们对货币的信心与币值稳定应当是任何货币调控的出发点和归宿。     

辽宁沿海港口与东北腹地互动发展对策探讨

分析了港口与腹地的关系,对辽宁沿海港口与东北腹地互动发展的现状、在在问题进行了分析,在此基础上,从明确互动层次及港口布局分工、建立内陆干港、提升口岸服务水平、优化腹地产业结构等方面提出了推动辽宁沿海港口与东北腹地互动的对策建议。     

Foreign Direct Investment,Institutional Voids,and the Internationalization of Mining Companies into Africa

The paper investigates the factors influencing the internationalization of mining firms into Africa and the strategies employed. We find that the three most important factors identified by mining houses as influencing their decisions to invest are all related to institutional voids particular to developing countries—security of tenure, political stability and poor infrastructure. South African firms have shown themselves to be adept to doing business in volatile political and institutional environments because of their experience within their home base with relatively weaker institutions. They have therefore developed advantages over multinational enterprises from industrialized countries to doing business in these new frontiers.     

The symmetric and asymmetric influences of destination attributes on overall visitor satisfaction

Visitors are impressed by specific destination attributes, which are sometimes the main motivating reasons for the travel selection or sometimes they are just one of the elements of a whole destination experience. This is because tourism and travel products are generally a combination of several different supplier offerings or they are a combination of the natural and artificial attributes of a destination that cannot be fully known before the experience of travel. Moreover, the importance and influence of these attributes on overall visitor satisfaction may differ considerably, depending on the market segments. In recent years, some studies have shown that the influences of destination attributes on overall visitor satisfaction are not symmetric in every case. For the purposes of this study, the symmetric and asymmetric influences of destination attributes are investigated for three major market segments of the Side-Manavgat area, Antalya, Turkey. The results show that the importance and influences of destination attributes may change according to the analysis technique employed and the market segment examined.     

深入学习贯彻党的十八届四中全会精神依法推进高职教育事业健康快速发展

党的十八届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面推进依法治国若干重大问题的决定》为全面推进依法治国作出重大部署.我们不仅要从历史和全局的高度学习贯彻十八届四中全会精神和《决定》内涵,以实事求是的精神全面推进依法治国,同时又要以依法治国方针为指导,全面推进高职教育事业健康快速发展.     

湖北科技学院大学生实践创新基地的可行性研究报告

艺术设计专业的教学具有实践性,艺术设计院校90%的课程都属于实践教学。艺术设计教育改革与发展的现状,也凸显了建立实践基地的现实必要性。