Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

基于SPC的喷漆线产品质量改善

针对汽车配件制造企业喷漆车间中的喷漆线,应用统计过程控制(SPC)技术对影响喷漆线产品质量的因素进行分析,着重对影响喷漆线产品质量的人为因素进行量化,并建立方程进行研究,找出了影响喷漆线产品质量的主要因素,并提出了相应的改进意见。     

Cultural industry development and multiple group participation in Taiwan

Based on the unique historical site culture assets, series of culture activities and constructions are held by Taiwan municipal government positively in recent years to raise local strength. Though the city landscape of Taiwan is far away from the traditional one, the comparison and analysis of foundation of cultural industry and the situation of cultural participation should be carried on to find out the real issues in Taiwan＇s cultural industry and cultural marketing so as to strengthen the ability of local development. This study finds out the resources of culture administration and the social participation in hope for clearing up the matters of Taiwan＇s cultural industry development, avoiding type Ⅲ errors, and giving suggestions.     

松香皂引气剂的试验研究

文章介绍了一种通过正交试验合成的新的松香皂引气剂,并通过泡沫指标确定了其优化配比,同时分析了合成松香皂引气剂时的加热时间和搅拌时间对泡沫性能的影响。     

CALL及其制约因素刍议

当今世界,计算机已被广泛应用于语言教学。计算机辅助语言教学经历了行为主义的计算机辅助语言教学、交际的计算机辅助语言教学和整体的计算机辅助语言教学三个主要阶段。运用计算机辅助语言教学有助于激发学生的学习动机,为学生提供真实的学习材料,促进学生进行更广泛的相互交流活动,提高学生的个体化学习能力,鼓励学生从单一信息源中脱离出来,促进全球化的共识等。但是,计算机辅助语言教学也有其制约因素,文章从财政困难、计算机软件和硬件的可利用性、技术与理论方面的障碍以及技术的接受等四个方面对此进行了阐述。     

工程项目计划管理系统设计与实现

本文通过研究分析工程项目管理的具体运行过程,采用结构化分析方法对工程项目组织机构、业务活动进行了详细的系统分析,建立了工程项目计划管理系统基本数据库,具体实现了工程项目计划管理系统的各功能模块,提出运用计算机辅助决策技术开发工程项目计划管理系统的必要性和可行性.     

Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers: Inflation versus Money Supply and Exchange Rate Targets

Some recent papers have shown how a simple contract can eliminate the inflationary bias of discretionary monetary policy. This paper shows that if the central banker is risk averse, a contract in terms of money is superior to one in terms of inflation. The paper also shows that, if the central banker cares about his reappointment, an exchange rate target might always leads to the implementation of the optimal policy.     

Are Securitizations in Substance Sales or Secured Borrowings? Capital‐Market Evidence*

Two standard‐setting approaches have emerged globally to guide the choice of accounting for securitizations: the control and components approach (SFAS No. 125 and SFAS No. 140) and the risks and rewards transfer approach (IAS No. 39). A lack of consensus about derecognition accounting is a major impediment to achieving convergence in global standards that must be resolved. Thus, both SFAS No. 140 and IAS No. 39 will be reexamined, and evidence pertinent to the debate is timely and important. In this study, we present evidence consistent with the view of credit‐rating analysts, who view many securitizations as, in substance, secured borrowings. Specifically, for a sample of originators applying sale accounting guidance in SFAS No. 125 / 140 during the period 1997‐2003, we show that off‐balance‐sheet debt related to securitizations has, on average, the same risk‐relevance for explaining market measures of risk (that is, CAPM beta) as on‐balance‐sheet debt. We also find that, in a returns and earnings association framework, the pricing multiple on securitization gains declines as the amount of off‐balance‐sheet debt increases, implying that investors take off‐balance‐sheet debt into account when assessing the valuation‐relevance of such gains. For those who advocate the control and components approach to securitization accounting, our results suggest that, at least for frequent securitizers, the put option arising from implicit recourse is a “missing piece” that is not currently accounted for when calculating securitization gains. Our results challenge the extant measurement standards in SFAS No. 140.     

基于制约理论的成本管理模式研究

环境的变化要求相应的成本管理模式发生变革。本文首先分析了环境变化对企业成本管理的影响,之后对作业成本法的管理思想的前提假设进行分析,指出它对于现代企业成本管理的局限性及其产生这些局限性的主要原因。最后,在分析制约理论核心原理的基础上,提出了一种基于制约理论的成本管理模式,试图为研究适应现代企业的成本管理模式提供新的思路。     

物流配送实时监管系统设计

随着近年流通领域的发展,尤其是电子商务对现代物流的要求,物流配送需要现代化的信息技术已越来越成为人们的共识,如何对物流配送系统和配送中心进行现代化建设,已成为不少物流配送公司的重要课题。针对目前物流配送中“不可见部分”和过程无法控制的现状,论文设计了一个物流配送实时监管系统来满足物流配送企业和客户的需求。