Early-warning analysis for currency crises in emerging markets: A revisit with fuzzy clustering

Currency crises, also often called balance-of-payment crises, occur when massive capital outflows force a country to devalue or float its currency. The world-wide integration of capital markets since the 1980s and 1990s has increased the degree of capital mobility, which also determined a substantial turbulence in foreign exchange markets and frequent currency crises. In this paper, we explore advanced supporting instruments for predicting currency crises, based on an empirical study of the currency crisis episodes in 23 emerging markets around the world during the second half of last century. More specifically, we investigate the usefulness of prediction models built based on the fuzzy c-means method. First we build clustering models that partition data into a certain number of overlapping natural groups. Thereafter, we classify the data clusters into early-warning clusters and tranquil clusters. We compare the performance of our models with a conventional c-means clustering model and a benchmark probit model. The results show that the proposed models achieve a similar level of out-of-sample performance as the probit model and c-means model. The fuzzy approach also introduces additional explanatory advantages into the early-warning analysis process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于教务管理平台的专业分流应用系统的设计与实现

专业分流是高校教务管理工作中一项重要的、具有复杂性的工作,随着高校招生规模的不断扩大,依靠传统手工的方式完成分流工作已不能够适应新形势下对专业分流的要求,设计开发一套基于教务管理平台的专业分流系统软件是非常有必要的。本系统采用分层设计思想、应用struts2开发框架,实现网上专业志愿填报、成绩计算、志愿成绩排名、专业分流录取等功能。本文给出了专业分流系统的设计和关键代码实现。     

构建高等职业教育教学信息收集体系

本文介绍了西安航空职业技术学院教学信息收集体系的具体操作办法,阐述了建立这一体系对人才培养质量的提高起到了积极作用。     

浅析公路经营企业与现代企业制度

近年来,公路经营企业发展对于我国收费公路快速发展起了非常重要的作用。本文对公路经营企业特点及面临困境进行了简要分析,并结合现代企业制度,给出了现代企业制度求解,这对于公路经营企业的进一步发展具有重要意义。     

A neuro-fuzzy combination model based on singular spectrum analysis for air transport demand forecasting

Air transport demand forecasting is receiving increasing attention, especially because of intrinsic difficulties and practical applications. Total passengers are used as a proxy for air transport demand. However, the air passenger time series usually has a complex behavior due to their irregularity, high volatility and seasonality. This paper proposes a new hybrid approach, combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA), adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO), for short-term air passenger traffic prediction. The SSA is used for identifying and extracting the trend and seasonality of air transport demand and the artificial intelligence technologies, including ANFIS and IPSO, are utilized to deal with the irregularity and volatility of the demand. The HK air passenger data are collected to establish and validate the forecasting model. Empirical results clearly points to the enormous potential that the proposed approach possesses in air transport demand forecasting and can be considered as a viable alternative.     

二阶自回归效应有限时间最优相对保费稳健性

在汽车保险奖惩系统相对保费研究中,需要考虑随机效应的动态异质性。在假设随机效应是一个二阶自回归随机序列的条件下,李俊海、赵振英、常沙沙(2011)给出了有限时间下最优相对保费计算公式,但是没有研究该公式的稳健性。在相同条件下,可以证明该文保费公式的稳健性。     

Impact of Financial Development on the Environmental Quality in Iran

In recent decades, undesirable environmental changes, such as global warming and greenhouse gases emission, have raised worldwide concerns. In order to achieve higher growth rate, environmental problems emerged from economic activities have turned into a controversial issue. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of financial development on environmental quality in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical data over the period from 1970 to 2011 were used. Also by using the Auto Regression Model Distributed Lag （ARDL）, short-term and long-term relationships among the variables of model were estimated and analyzed. The results show that financial development accelerates the degradation of the environment; however, the increase in trade openness reduces the damage to environment in Iran. Error correction coefficient shows that in each period, 53% of imbalances would be justified and will approach their long-run procedure. Structural stability tests show that the estimated coefficients were stable over the period.     

高职院校大学生职业生涯规划教育模式探讨

做好大学生职业生涯规划教育工作是社会发展对人才培养工作的基本要求.当前,高职院校需要转变固有理念,形成自身的职业生涯教育体系;立足于规范的制度,建设专业的指导教师队伍,构建合理的教育框架,创建有针对性的教育模块;增强学生的主体意识,力求实现从被动到主动的转变.     

中美产品责任惩罚性赔偿制度构成要件的比较

我国《侵权责任法》首次规定产品责任惩罚性赔偿,但存在主观要件过严、举证难、赔偿责任及数额不具体等问题。应借鉴美国相关法律,予以完善。