On optimality in intergenerational risk sharing

Summary. This paper defines and studies optimality in a dynamic stochastic economy with finitely lived agents, and investigates the optimality properties of an equilibrium with or without sequentially complete markets. Various Pareto optimality concepts are considered, including interim and ex ante optimality. We show that, at an equilibrium with a productive asset (land) and sequentially complete markets, the intervention of a government may be justified, but only to improve risk sharing between generations. If markets are incomplete, constrained interim optimality is investigated in two-period lived OLG economies. We extend the optimality properties of an equilibrium with land and give conditions under which introducing a pay-as-you-go system at an equilibrium would not lead to any Pareto improvement. Received: October 5, 1998; revised version: April 3, 2001     

Computing equilibria of GEI by relocalization on a Grassmann manifold

An algorithm is described to compute equilibria of the general economic model with incomplete asset markets, that is, of GEI. The algorithm is based on the existence of a route of zeros of a homotopy whose domain includes the price simplex and a Grassmann Manifold. This route is followed, in effect, by localizing and following diffeomorphic pieces in Euclidean space, and by relocalizing as is necessary.     

Research notes and communications first-mover effects in multiple dynamic markets

A study of first-mover effects in semi-submersible oil-drilling suggests that first-entrants in international markets maintain higher market share after controlling for market localization and life cycle. Examining only surviving entrants at a point in time inflates this pioneering-market share relationship. Pioneering has an inter-market effect on market share, greater than the intra-market effect. Multinational firms may use market pioneering to resist localization pressures and enhance survival in foreign markets. The study suggests the importance of careful first-mover identification and market definition, a wider examination of first-mover effects over multiple markets, and control for measurement timing.     

Designing Optimal Crop Revenue Insurance

When the indemnity schedule is contingent on the farmer's price and individual yield, an optimal crop revenue insurance contract depends only on the farmer's gross revenue. However, this design is not efficient if, as is the case with available contracts, the coverage function is based on imperfect estimators of individual yield and/or price. The producer's degree of prudence and the extent of basis risks have important influences on the optimal indemnity schedule. In this broader context, optimal protection is not provided by available U.S. crop insurance contracts and may include combinations of revenue insurance, yield insurance, futures, and options contracts.     

Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies

This paper investigates the causal links between stock market performance and consumption for five Asian economies by applying the bound tests of Pesaran et al. and lag augmented VAR of Toda and Yamamoto . We find two‐way causal relationships between stock market performance and consumption in the cases of Hong Kong and Taiwan in the long run. The existence of such two‐way causal links indicates that stock market performance and consumption mutually affect each other, implying that the previous studies may have overestimated the wealth effect of the stock markets without taking account of the reverse causation from consumption to the stock markets. The short‐run effect of the stock market on consumption is more visible than the long‐run effect in most of the sample economies, suggesting that changes in consumption directly reflect stock market fluctuations.     

利用上市公司资源,加快重庆资本市场发展

通过对重庆市上市公司最新基本情况、统计数据、市场表现等资料的整理,及与兄弟省市市场的对比,剖析了重庆资本市场落后的根源,探索了加快重庆资本市场发展的途径.     

OPTIONS AND EFFICIENCY IN MULTIDATE SECURITY MARKETS

This paper extends the work of Ross (1976; Q. J. Econ. (90)1, 75–89) to multidate security markets. First, we show that if a primitive security separates states at the terminal date, then there exist multiperiod European options on that security generating dynamically complete markets. Second, we show that if a primitive security conditionally separates states at the terminal date, then there exist multiperiod European options on that security generating generically dynamically complete markets provided that certain conditions hold. Third, we show that there are economies for which the minimum number of multiperiod European options on a primitive security generating generically dynamically complete markets is relatively large. Finally, we show that in these economies, a relatively small number of multiperiod European options on possibly different portfolio strategies of primitive securities generates generically dynamically complete markets.     

Effet des Evolutions Techniques et des Changements de la Spécialisation Internationale sur les Marchés du Travail et les Systèmes Productifs: Comment les Statisticiens Pourraient-ils Relever les Défis?

Thinking about future needs and about what can reasonably be expected as feasible in the next century, how should producers of statistics direct their activity? Increasing complexity and diversity of needs leads us to recognize that, between producers and users of statistics, a mediating role is more and more often played by analysts and research workers who are requesting above all good data bases. Concerning infrastructures for statistics on productive systems, coordination between accountants and statisticians will be crucial, as well as adaptation of the constraints which, because of excessive worry about confidentiality, could prevent establishment or use of data bases. In an increasingly competitive world, where private firms will sell analyses and informations, particularly on very large enterprises, the public statistical service will remain essential in all respects. Intangible investments, innovations and many aspects of the internal organization of firms will create formidable challenges. Information on employment and labour markets has been much developed during the past decades; but on a few specific and difficult issues progress is still needed: lifecyles in the working-age population, acquisition of knowledge and skills in formal education and on the job, matching labour supplies and demands, and so on. Particular attention will have to be given to the lower levels of cultural and professional skills.     

Operations of a Pension Fund after the Asian Crisis: The Thai Experience*

During and after the Asian crisis, institutional investors and pension funds in Asian financial markets have been confronted with a number of difficulties effecting their performance and the way they carry out their role within the national pension system. We analyze these problems by comparing the actual investment policy of an institutional investor with an optimal investment strategy derived from the insights of modern portfolio theory. We also analyze whether the organizational set‐up of a pension fund allows it to adequately perform its role within the pension system. As an example, we examine the operations of the Thai Government Pension Fund (GPF). We find that allowing international investments and reducing restrictions on equity investments while lowering the implicit requirements for investments in government debt would allow the GPF to further diversify its investment risk and to increase its risk‐adjusted return. We also show that some changes in the governance structure of the GPF would lower the occurrence of conflicts of interest for the management and increase the efficiency of the GPF operations.