ON OPTIMAL INVESTMENT FOR A BEHAVIORAL INVESTOR IN MULTIPERIOD INCOMPLETE MARKET MODELS

We study the optimal investment problem for a behavioral investor in an incomplete discrete‐time multiperiod financial market model. For the first time in the literature, we provide easily verifiable and interpretable conditions for well‐posedness. Under two different sets of assumptions, we also establish the existence of optimal strategies.     

Harsanyi’s theorem without the sure-thing principle: On the consistent aggregation of Monotonic Bernoullian and Archimedean preferences

This paper studies the extension of Harsanyi’s theorem (Harsanyi, 1955) in a framework involving uncertainty. It seeks to extend the aggregation result to a wide class of Monotonic Bernoullian and Archimedean preferences (Cerreia-Vioglio et al., 2011) that subsumes many models of choice under uncertainty proposed in the literature. An impossibility result is obtained, unless we are in the specific framework where all individuals and the social observer are subjective expected utility maximizers sharing the same beliefs. This implies that non-expected utility preferences cannot be aggregated consistently.     

‘CHOOSE TO BE OPTIMISTIC,IT FEELS BETTER?’ EVIDENCE OF OPTIMISM ON EMPLOYMENT UTILITY

Individual's expected wages exceed predicted market wages. Rational expectations imply the divergence should be zero. If individuals over‐estimate the return from their attributes and view the paid‐employment return distribution too favourably, then conditional on market wages, subsequent employment utility is likely to be low through disappointment.     

Optimal contest design under reverse-lottery technology

In this paper, we study effort-maximizing contest design under the “reverse” nested lottery contest model of Fu et al. (2014) — which is the “mirror image” of the conventional nested lottery contest of Clark and Riis (1996). We show that under the reverse-lottery technology, a single-stage winner-take-all grand contest dominates all other feasible designs when the contest is sufficiently noisy. This result is in dramatic contrast to the conventional wisdom on the optimality of multistage elimination contests that is grounded under the conventional nested lottery contest technology in the literature. In the framework of a noisy-performance ranking model, the conventional and reverse models differ only in the noise on players’ performance. Our study therefore reveals the important role that the noise term plays in modeling imperfectly discriminatory contests.     

Discrete-time behavioral portfolio selection under cumulative prospect theory

We formulate and study three multi-period behavioral portfolio selection models under cumulative prospect theory: (i) S-shaped utility maximization without probability weighting in a market with one risky asset; (ii) S-shaped utility maximization without probability weighting in a market with multiple risky assets which follow a joint elliptical distribution; and (iii) S-shaped utility maximization with inverse-S-shaped probability weighting in a market with one risky asset. For the first two time consistent models, we identify the well-posedness conditions and derive the semi-analytical optimal policies. For the third time inconsistent model, we assume that the investor is aware of the time inconsistency but is unable to commit to his initial plan of action. Then, we reformulate the model into an intrapersonal game model and derive the semi-analytical subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (time consistent) policy under well-posedness condition. All the three policies take a piecewise linear feedback form. Our analysis of the three models not only partially explains the well documented phenomena of non-participation puzzle and horizon effect, but also extends the two fund separation theorem into multi-period S-shaped utility setting and pushes forward the study on time inconsistency issue incurred by probability weighting.     

Ambiguous volatility,possibility and utility in continuous time

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker’s concern with ambiguity about both the drift and volatility of the driving process. At a technical level, the analysis requires a significant departure from existing continuous time modeling because it cannot be done within a probability space framework. This is because ambiguity about volatility leads invariably to a set of nonequivalent priors, that is, to priors that disagree about which scenarios are possible.     

港口物流仿真实验教学有效性的探究

以厦门理工学院的港口物流管理仿真实验室为例,探讨了如何合理规划物流实验项目以及将实验教学与科研、工程和社会应用实践结合,最后提出了实验教学的几大改革理念。     

基于多阶段决策的战备物资储备结构优化模型研究

分析了战备物资储备结构优化问题的构成,应用效用理论和多阶段决策的方法,构建了战备物资储备品种结构与数量结构的综合优化模型,为战备物资储备结构研究提出了新的方法和思路。     

城市房屋拆迁补偿不足的经济分析

以城市房屋拆迁补偿问题为研究对象,在纵观国内外城市拆迁补偿实践的基础上,结合序数效用论探究了拆迁冲突频发的原因在于拆迁补偿不足,被拆迁人效用的降低。运用零和博弈的分析手段,揭示了拆迁补偿不足背后的深层社会现象:拆迁人利用其资源和信息等方面的绝对优势来侵占处于弱势地位的被拆迁人利益,说明该博弈的占优策略使得拆迁双方都不能得益,必须通过政策干预来影响博弈可能的解。结合研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Evaluating the effects of area closure for recreational fishing in a coral reef ecosystem: The benefits of an integrated economic and biophysical modeling

This paper presents an integrated agent-based model of recreational fishing behavior within a reef ecosystem as a platform for the evaluation of recreational fishing management strategies. Angler behavior is described using econometrically estimated site choice models, with site choice among anglers driven by site attributes and angler characteristics. The biophysical model represents the marine reef environment as a system with different trophic levels identifying algal and coral growth as well as two types of fish (piscivores and herbivores). Ecosystem dynamics are driven by interactions within the trophic levels and interaction between fish populations and fishing activities.The model is used to simulate recreational fishing activities and their interactions with the environment. Recreational fishing sites from the Ningaloo Marine Park, an iconic coral reef system in Western Australia, are used as a case study. A set of management strategies, including “business-as-usual” and different site closure durations, are assessed for two different levels of fishing pressures. The results show that not only the effectiveness but also the distribution of management impacts across space and over time can be very different from what one would expect without the benefit of integrated modeling.