基于ESIA方法的X高校科研管理流程优化研究

高校的科研管理工作需要不断对现有流程进行优化,使得高校科研管理工作处于高效率状态。根据X高校科研管理的实际情况,以科研管理流程节点信息为基础。通过对流程节点表描述的信息具体分析,得出X高校科研管理流程的主要缺陷,再结合ESIA方法对流程进行优化并给出优化对策。     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.     

Waiting time probabilities in the M/G/1 + M queue

We consider an M/G/1 queueing system where the customers may leave the queue if their services do not commence before an exponentially distributed random time. The (conditional) offered waiting time distribution is approximated by a gamma distribution via matching the first and second moments of the actual waiting time. A simulation study is conducted to assess the accuracy of the approximation and it reveals that the approximation performs satisfactorily under general conditions on service time distributions.     

津西钢铁异型坯中间包快换

为了节约中间包换包时间,提高连浇生产率,从而提高产量,津西钢铁集团与安徽工业大学共同开发异形坯连铸中间包快换技术,实现三机三流薄腹板异形坯连铸中间包快换的目的,减少铸机停机次数,提高异形坯连铸机的作业率,提高铸机产能。     

Equilibrium in a reinsurance market with short sale constraints

Summary. This paper deals with the existence of equilibrium in a dynamic reinsurance market with short sale constraints, driven by a marked point process, as studied in Bernis and Jouini (2001). We use the set of reinsurance treaties as consumption set, which is the positive orthant of some Banach lattice that can be identified to a space of martingales, . The properness of preferences is a key assumption for us to prove the existence of an equilibrium. We provide a sufficient condition for the preferences to be proper in term of loading factor of the reinsurance premium. Received: June 15, 2000; revised version: May 17, 2001     

Equilibrium mean–variance reinsurance and investment strategies for a general insurance company under smooth ambiguity

This work investigates the equilibrium investment and reinsurance strategies for a general insurance company under smooth ambiguity. The general insurance company holds shares of an insurance company and a reinsurance company. The claims of the insurer follow a compound Poisson process. The insurer can divide part of the insurance risk to the reinsurer. Besides, the insurer and reinsurer both participate in the financial market and invest in cash and stock. However, the general insurance company is ambiguous about the insurance and financial risks and is an ambiguity-averse manager (AAM). The uncertainties over the insurance and financial risks are described by second-order distributions. The AAM aims to maximize the average performance of the weighted sum surplus process of the insurer and reinsurer under the mean–variance criterion and smooth ambiguity. We present the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) system for the optimization problem combining the mean–variance criterion and smooth ambiguity. In the case that the second-order distributions are Gaussian, we obtain the closed-forms of the equilibrium reinsurance and investment strategies. At the end of this work, sensitivity analyses are presented to show the economic behaviors of the AAM.     

Under the influence of the team? An investigation of the relationships between team autonomy,individual autonomy and social influence within teams

This study contributes to the debate about whether teamwork facilitates or constrains the single team member's autonomy at work. We investigate whether team autonomy can explain employees' individual autonomy, the teams' informal influence on its members and employees' desire for either individual or team influence. Questionnaire data were collected among employees in four Danish companies from different industries with various types of team organization: permanent, project-based and mixed teams. The results of the multiple regression analyses show that team autonomy is positively associated with individual autonomy, which is neither moderated by the team's ability to make the employee feel responsible nor by team support. Team autonomy is positively associated with facilitative social influence, i.e. team reward, team support and we find a negative association between team autonomy and team coercion. Moreover, employees who experienced more team than individual autonomy wanted their teams to control more work issues compared to employees who experienced lower team than individual autonomy.     

How do high-involvement work processes influence employee outcomes? An examination of the mediating roles of skill utilisation and intrinsic motivation

How do high-involvement work processes influence employee outcomes? In this paper, we use Vandenberg et al.'s [Vandenberg, R. J., Richardson, H. A., & Eastman, L. J. (1999). The impact of high involvement work processes on organisational effectiveness: A second order latent variable approach. Group and Organisational Management, 24, 300–339] elaboration of Lawler's [Lawler, E. E. (1986). High-involvement management: Participative strategies for improving organizational performance. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass] model to test direct links and to explore skill utilisation and intrinsic motivation as mediators. Survey data were collected from a large New Zealand organisation providing distribution services and results were analysed through structural equation modelling. While there are important direct effects, the results demonstrate that both skill utilisation and intrinsic motivation transmit high-involvement processes into valuable outcomes for employees. The benefits to employees of such processes are direct but also lie in the way they make the work itself more motivating and enable them to deploy and grow their skills. This implies that forms of work organisation and supervision that offer workers greater opportunity for discretion, and involvement in the decisions that concern them, create the conditions for greater learning and, in turn, contribute to their well-being.     

Optimal Allocation for Comparing <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis> Test Treatments to Positive and Negative Control with Unequal Weighting Under A-optimality and MV-optimality

Experiments in real life often involve comparisons of test treatments to more than one control. However, the controls may not always be of equal importance. In this paper we introduce weighted MV optimality criterion and present a detailed study using both weighted A and MV optimality criteria, of the problem of optimally comparing a set of test treatments to two controls (positive and a negative) that are of unequal importance to the experimenter.