Forecasting tourist arrivals in Barbados

Importance of forecasting in tourism is not a controversial issue. Recently, there has been increased attention on forecasting models in tourism. The value of a forecasting model depends on the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts. At present, there is no indication as to which model or class of models is suitable for forecasting tourism. This paper specifies, estimates, and validates an ARIMA model for forecasting long-stay visitors in Barbados. The accuracy of the short-term forecasts surpasses most recent forecasting studies. The implication of the study is that customized model building may be highly rewarding in terms of accurate forecasts compared to standard or simple methods.     

基于机器视觉的化工多相液态界面智能检测

为解决化工生产过程中多相液体界面接触式检测的难题,研究一种基于机器视觉的智能界面检测系统,可实现多相液体界面的外置非接触式检测,并研究界面检测算法的改进及数据集的构建。结果表明,系统的检测误差率仅为5.3%,模型精度达到86.3%,满足了工业应用的精确度要求和实时检测效果,且模型权重文件大小仅为13.6 MB,可在边缘计算设备上部署,在技术上具备了实时、精确、高效的特点,成功地为化工生产中的多相液体分液问题提供了创新的解决途径。     

中国城镇化进程、面临问题及其总体布局

改革开放30多年来,中国城镇化的制度安排经历了由限制农民进城到允许、引导农民进城、再到鼓励农民进城的过程,对创造就业机会、提升产业结构、推动经济增长发挥了重要作用。现阶段,中国城镇化还面临着内需开发、农民工市民化、城镇体系结构布局等方面的问题。下一步,中国发展需要加快推进城镇化,从布局突破过渡到全面推进阶段,从规模重组、空间重组、产业重组三个维度确立中国城市体系的总体布局。     

“临水望山”地段的视觉空间界面量化评价研究——以济南佛山倒影为例

基于山水城市的考量,从临水望山视觉空间意境探析入手,概述了山水营城的视觉空间溯源、山水文化的视觉意境传承和山水城市的视觉界面演替三部分内容。以济南佛山倒影视觉空间界面为例,架构真实视野下的佛山倒影视觉空间界面,提供参数设定和界面矢量化提取方法。运用数学模型和美学评价相结合的方法对视觉界面吻合度进行量化分析,提出核心区域和非核心区域的控制策略及吻合度修正方法,并结合界面显山度指标的控制,将视觉界面空间指标应用于街区形态导控。     

“组织时代”的无奈——从复旦“黄山门”事件说开去

":黄山门"事件凸显了"组织时代"的大学教育困境以及时代的功利化特质。在传统道德和现代性、全球化语境的夹缝中,构建"网络组织",希求获得一种新型的组织与个人的二元关系。     

Natural and Built Photographic Images: Preference,Complexity, and Recall

An investigation of the effect of natural versus built images of tourism activities on consumer responses was undertaken, using a selection of tourism promotion photographs. A sample of 156 males and 175 females provided ratings for images including: preference (liking), degree of complexity, consumption vision, and recall. The research provides evidence for consumer preference for natural versus built images, shows the role of complexity as an association to image type, and demonstrates that areas of interest most liked within an image are different by gender. Tourism activity images that are predominantly natural are more likely to be recalled. This study contributes to the application of a new method using areas of interest to pinpoint elements of images that are most interesting.     

发达经济体愿景下开发性普惠金融的战略思考

为了跨越"中等收入陷阱",应将普惠金融与经济转型升级有机结合起来.由于普及性普惠金融局限性明显,所以,为了实现进入发达经济体的目标,有必要大力发展开发性普惠金融.与普及性普惠金融的"供血功能"不同,开发性普惠金融是一种"造血式"融资并提供相关金融服务,着眼于社会不同层级经济主体之间的生产分工合作,能提高劳动生产率并共享经济增长的成果.基于发达经济体愿景,提出了发展开发性普惠金融的基本框架,旨在促使整个产业链的价值提升,调整社会收入分配结构.     

Vision salience and strategic involvement: Implications for psychological attachment to organization and job

Managers' perceptions of their involvement in strategic planning were hypothesized to be positively related with their feelings of organizational commitment, job satisfaction, and job involvement. Further, it was also hypothesized that the relationship between strategic involvement and these work-related attitudes would be enhanced to the extent that the managers' felt that a salient strategic vision was guiding the company. We tested these two hypotheses using a sample of upper level managers in a large corporation undergoing a major strategic transformation. With the exception of finding no evidence that vision salience moderated the positive relationship between strategic involvement and job involvement, both hypotheses were supported. With regard to managers' psychological attachment to the organization, the results suggest that there are advantages afforded by involving them in the strategy making process, and that these advantages are magnified to the extent that the involvement occurs within the context of a salient strategic vision.     

Choose your words carefully: Harnessing the language of crowdfunding for success

When it comes to raising money via crowdfunding, the language used in campaign narratives matters. Little practical guidance has been offered to those wishing to use crowdfunding concerning how to tailor the language in a crowdfunding campaign to enhance funding prospects. We take insights generated in academic research and distill those down to practical guidance for crowdfunding users. Here, we focus on two important aspects of language. First, we highlight how language that provides insight into the entrepreneurs’ personality—words expressing positivity, charisma, resilience, or narcissism—relates to funding. Second, we outline how various linguistic styles used to describe the general topics of the campaign relate to funding. Our work is particularly applicable to one of the most popular forms of crowdfunding: rewards-based crowdfunding.     

The Role of Integrity as a Mediator in Strategic Leadership: A Recipe for Reputational Capital

In the context of a crisis of confidence in executive leadership in corporate America, this paper examines the role of integrity as a mediator within strategic leadership and its impact on credibility in reputational capital. A tension can occur within strategic leadership between the elements of strategic planning and leadership vision. This tension can destroy the credibility of reputational capital unless strategic leadership is managed effectively. Integrity can be used as the glue providing for credible leadership vision amid a strategic perspective oriented to competitive pressures, thereby enabling strategic leadership to contribute to a sustainable competitive advantage. A strategic leadership audit is presented as a tool by which strategic leadership and reputational capital can be managed.