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51.
When evaluating the risks of future invasions, we often have sparse information on the likelihood that a species will arrive, establish and spread in a new environment, and on the potential impacts should this occur. Conventional risk assessment, therefore, is limited in providing guidance in managing the risk of non-indigenous species (NIS). However, risk management decisions must be made facing these uncertainties to avoid high and irreversible impacts.We develop an integrated ecological economic modeling and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation (DMCE) approach to support group decision-making in risk prioritization, using an example of ten NIS that could potentially impact Australian plant industries. This innovative approach seeks to combine the advantages of dynamic modeling with the benefits of DMCE in assessing and communicating uncertainty. The model unveils the complexity of the socio-ecological system of biological invasion, with a scenario analysis designed to interactively communicate scientific uncertainty to decision-makers. The DMCE provides a structured approach to identifying stakeholders' key concerns in addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions of NIS risk explicitly. Functioning as a platform for risk communication, the DMCE also offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process and for the negotiation of consensus consensuses.  相似文献   
52.
Abstract

At the beginning of The Wealth of Nations Adam Smith describes a pin factory. It is widely accepted that this example comes from Diderot's Encyclopaedia, published in France in the 18th century. The details in the text together with the conferences previously given in Glasgow clearly show that this one reference cannot be the only source. Three other French publications on pin making may also have been used as references for Adam Smith's text. Phrase by phrase these texts are compared to Smith's to support the assertion that he based his work on four previous French publications. The Wealth of Nations unites and synthesizes these different sources and excerpts those parts that confirm his theory. Smith should have listed his sources.  相似文献   
53.
Summary. Sufficient axioms are identified for the existence of a finite- dimensional quasilinear utility function whose lexicographically ordered vectors preserve a decision maker's preference order on a mixture set . It is shown that those axioms are also necessary for the linear lexicographic representation when the underlying set is a mixture space. Received: August 20, 1998; revised version: December 14, 1998  相似文献   
54.
    
We provide an equilibrium framework for modeling the behavior of an agent who holds a simplified view of a dynamic optimization problem. The agent faces a Markov decision process, where a transition probability function determines the evolution of a state variable as a function of the previous state and the agent's action. The agent is uncertain about the true transition function and has a prior over a set of possible transition functions; this set reflects the agent's (possibly simplified) view of her environment and may not contain the true function. We define an equilibrium concept and provide conditions under which it characterizes steady-state behavior when the agent updates her beliefs using Bayes' rule.  相似文献   
55.
线是园林景观设计中一个重要的视觉造型元素。就景观设计中线的涵义、形态视觉特性等方面进行论述,并通过应用实例来阐述景观设计中线的几种表达方式,不同"线"的造型要素在不同应用情况下产生的不同景观效果。  相似文献   
56.
Summary. Recent work by Bossert, Pattanaik and Xu provides axiomatic characterizations of some decision rules for individual decision making under complete uncertainty. This note shows that, in the case of two of these rules, they do not satisfy one of the axioms used for their characterization. A counterexample illustrating this fact is provided, as well as an alternative way to characterize the two rules under consideration, mantaining as far as possible the original axioms proposed by Bossert, Pattanaik and Xu. Received: November 3, 2000; revised version: March 1, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I am grateful for the encouragement and support of Professor Prasanta Pattanaik. I thank also the suggestions of two anonymous referees. This work was made during an academic visit to the Department of Economics of the University of California in Riverside (UCR). The visit was possible thanks to an invitation by the UCR and the financial support of the Public University of Navarra, the Government of Navarra, and the CICYT (SEC96-0858).  相似文献   
57.
马林 《价值工程》2014,(14):143-144
近两年以来,煤炭企业由于煤炭价格的大幅度下跌面临着严峻的经济衰退问题,财务管理作为企业管理的一个重要方面,在企业激烈的市场竞争中发挥重要的作用,通过财务管理信息化手段为企业各层管理者及时地提供准确的财务信息,对企业正确决策发挥着越来越重要作用[1]。  相似文献   
58.
When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person’s shoes. We refer to this as “role thinking”, because, in practice, the advice is to think about how other protagonists will view the situation in order to predict their decisions. We tested the effect of role thinking on forecast accuracy. We obtained 101 role-thinking forecasts of the decisions that would be made in nine diverse conflicts from 27 Naval postgraduate students (experts) and 107 role-thinking forecasts from 103 second-year organizational behavior students (novices). The accuracy of the novices’ forecasts was 33% and that of the experts’ was 31%; both were little different from chance (guessing), which was 28%. The small improvement in accuracy from role-thinking strengthens the finding from earlier research that it is not sufficient to think hard about a situation in order to predict the decisions which groups of people will make when they are in conflict. Instead, it is useful to ask groups of role players to simulate the situation. When groups of novice participants adopted the roles of protagonists in the aforementioned nine conflicts and interacted with each other, their group decisions predicted the actual decisions with an accuracy of 60%.  相似文献   
59.
    
Behavioral operations management, or simply behavioral operations (BOps), aims at understanding the decision‐making of managers and at using this understanding to generate interventions that improve the operation of the supply chain. To do so, BOps imports knowledge from a number of fields such as economics, psychology and other social and behavioral sciences. We point out a blind spot in this knowledge: In BOps, the heuristics that people use are typically, although not always, viewed as a liability. The issue with this view is that it does not explain when and in what way heuristics can be an asset. We propose, as a research program for BOps, uncovering the conditions under which the heuristics that supply chain managers use are an asset, as well as the conditions under which they are a liability. We briefly discuss some research on heuristics in BOps and show how the study of quantitative models of heuristics can complement it.  相似文献   
60.
姜华 《活力》2010,(3):42-42
英语教学应具有极强的实践性、交流性。以往“教师讲、学生听;教师写、学生抄:教师考、学生背”的落后的教学方式压抑了学生的个性发展,剥夺了学生创新的时间和空间。通过不断探索,互动式教学已成为提高英语课堂教学实效的有效途径。在“互动式教学模式”的课堂里,体现着“以人为本”的原则,以学生为主体,通过教学中师生之间,同学之间的互动关系,产生教与学之间的共鸣,实现教学相长。  相似文献   
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