Forecasting Stock Index Futures Price Volatility: Linear vs. Nonlinear Models

The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock index futures volatility. The forecasting models that are employed range from naïve models to the relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock index futures volatility, the autoregressive model ranks first using the RMSE and MAPE criteria. We also examine three nonlinear models. These models are GARCH-M, EGARCH, and ESTAR. We find that nonlinear GARCH models dominate linear models utilizing the RMSE and the MAPE error statistics and EGARCH appears to be the best model for forecasting stock index futures price volatility.     

Initial Margin Requirements, Volatility, and the Individual Investor: Insights from Japan

Initial margin requirements represent: (1) a cost impediment to the wealth constrained investor and (2) a potential way of mitigating excessive volatility. However, prior empirical research finds that margins are not an effective tool in reducing volatility. We consider the possibility that margins primarily affect certain stocks and investors. Specifically, we test whether margins affect individuals who, as a group, we believe to be the investors most affected when margin requirements change. Our initial empirical tests, however, do not support this contention.     

论科研选题应注意的几个问题

科研选题要善于把握选题的原别和导向，注意课题的研究动态，把握课题的研究范围，发挥出科研人员的优势，设计出切实可行的研究路线。     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

生态文化旅游的价值评价研究

旅游业已经成为现代经济增长一个新的亮点,特别是生态文化旅游的增长速度更是惊人,而其发展的价值平衡是生态学和经济学必须面对的一个难题。本文依据意大利经济学家帕累托的不均匀分布定律,运用埃奇渥斯盒状分析图,在某一选定的生态资源环境的承载量既定的基础上,从生态文化旅游的价值交换的角度考虑,并且从定性研究转向定量研究,分析研究生态文化旅游的价值帕累托最优曲线,用以筛选生态文化旅游的工程项目。     

Technological proximity and the choice of cooperation partner

This paper provides empirical tests of hypotheses of cooperative behavior provided by evolutionary approaches in the resource-based view of the firm. The influences of “technological proximity”, individual incentives to cooperate and managerial tools to the choice of research partner are analyzed. Using German patent data we can show the positive influence of those three determinants. The results of this paper confirm theories dealing with the path-dependency of research activities.      

商业银行资产负债结构与流动性风险控制

流动性风险产生的实质是由于资产、负债的不匹配所导致的。因此,合理调整资产负债结构,能有效地控制流动性风险。     

发展旅游业--新疆社会经济发展的必然选择

旅游是一种具有重大经济与文化意义的活动,它的产生和发展紧随社会前进的步伐。近年来,随着人们收入的增长和消费水平的提高,节假日外出旅游成为时尚。目前,旅游业是我国的重要产业。在我国的很多地区,旅游业已成为增加经济收入、改善产业结构、提高人们的现代意识、推动区域经济和社会进步的重要产业。新疆地区少数民族众多、地域辽阔,加上历史文化悠久,孕育了丰富的自然旅游资源及人文旅游资源,在全国具有旅游资源的比较优势,因此发展旅游业必将带动新疆地区社会经济的全面发展。     

犯罪构成与刑事诉讼及人权保障

犯罪构成是刑法的核心概念。大陆法系与英美法系的犯罪构成与刑事诉讼紧密相连 ,在动态意义上发挥了保障人权的作用。我国的犯罪构成理论排除了“有责性”和“违法性”的查证 ,缺乏有效的保障、限制机制 ,有待进一步完善。     

浅谈企业信用风险管理

社会主义经济是信用经济,没有信用,就没有秩序,市场经济就不能健康的发展。加强企业信用管理的风险控制是现代企业的一项重要任务。进入WTO标志着中国经济更加开放,国际贸易更加纷繁复杂,在机遇透人的同时,企业也潜伏着越来越大的风险,尤其是企业信用风险。因此强化企业的信用风险管理,建立与完善企业内部信用风险管理体制,仍然是企业面临的一项重要课题,笔者从多方面阐述了企业信用风险形成的原因以及如何建立风险管理机制等问题。